Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Injury Uncertainty Impacts NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Oklahoma City Thunder star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is favored to win the MVP award for the second season in a row, sitting at -210 in the odds at the All-Star break.

However, that number has fallen considerably over the last few weeks, as Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic returned from a knee injury and SGA has missed multiple games with an abdominal strain.

After getting up to -340 earlier in the season, right when Jokic was set to return from a 16-game absence, SGA fell to -260 after he went down with his own injury ahead of the All-Star break.

Now, with the star guard's status up in the air for the Thunder's next matchup on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets, oddsmakers have dropped him to -210 to win MVP this season. Jokic (+300), Cade Cunningham (+1400) and Luka Doncic (+2000) are the leading contenders to overtake the Thunder guard in this market.

Gilgeous-Alexander is set to be re-evaluated after the All-Star break, so there's a chance he could play as early as Friday. However, he's been out since Feb. 4, and some abdominal strains can take more than just a few weeks to heal.

According to Todd McGrath, MD, a primary sports medicine physician at Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS), there are varying lengths of recovery time, which he recently shared with Thunder Wire.

"Lower‑grade, mild injuries may recover as quickly as 10 days to two weeks," McGrath said. "More severe injuries with significant tearing may take as long as 8–12 weeks to heal. Moderate strains fall in the middle, often taking about 3–6 weeks. Initial management focuses on a brief period of rest and controlling pain and inflammation. This is followed by early gentle range‑of‑motion work and mobilization of the injured muscles within pain limits. As the athlete improves, they progress to focused strengthening, agility, and core‑stability exercises, then to sport‑specific activities leading up to return‑to‑play."

Depending upon the severity of Gilgeous-Alexander's injury, he may need another week or two to return to action. If he misses more time, it would certainly be a blow to his MVP odds if Cunningham, Jokic and others continue to play well.

The Detroit Pistons and Cunningham are right on the Thunder's heels for the best record in the NBA, and Jokic and the Nuggets could make a push for the No. 1 seed in the West with a big second half.

Last season, SGA won the MVP for his great play and OKC's general dominance over the rest of the league -- specifically the Western Conference. That currently isn't the case in the 2025-26 season, as the Thunder are just 3.5 games up on the San Antonio Spurs for the No. 1 seed in the West.

For now, Thunder fans shouldn't worry about SGA's availability going forward, but it is interesting that his MVP odds have been slashed from -340 to -210 in less than a month.

If he's able to return sooner rather than later, SGA should remain the favorite in this market since he is averaging 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game while shooting a ridiculous 55.4 percent from the field and 39.0 percent from 3.

However, Jokic, Cunningham and others have compelling cases to be considered in this market with a couple months left in the regular season.

Here's a quick look at the NBA MVP odds before action resumes on Thursday, Feb. 19 for several teams after the All-Star break.

NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -210
Nikola Jokic: +300
Cade Cunningham: +1400
Luka Doncic: +2000
Victor Wembanyama: +3500
Jaylen Brown: +5000
Donovan Mitchell: +14000
Anthony Edwards: +20000
Jalen Brunson: +25000
Kevin Durant: +50000
Kawhi Leonard: +50000
Tyrese Maxey: +50000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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