Spain vs. Belgium Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Quarterfinals

Friday’s World Cup action features an intriguing quarterfinal match between Spain and Belgium after they advanced through the Round of 16 on Monday.

Spain picked up a low-scoring win over Portugal while Belgium torched the United States, scoring four goals in a commanding win.

These are two of the best offenses in the tournament, and Belgium has really taken a step forward since back-to-back draws to open the World Cup, scoring 12 times over its last three games.

Spain has not allowed a single goal in the 2026 World Cup, defeating Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16 to advance to the quarterfinals for the first time since it won in 2010.

Belgium finished in third place in 2018 and made the quarterfinals in 2014, so it’s more than capable of pulling off an upset in this matchup – even history suggests it won’t.

Friday’s quarterfinal will be the eighth meeting between Spain and Belgium, though La Roja have yet to lose in the previous seven meetings, going 6-1-0.

With Spain heavily favored to advance (-320 at the best betting sites), how should we bet on this match?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player prop to bet, each team’s World Cup performance and my prediction for Spain vs. Belgium.

Spain vs. Belgium Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Advance

Spain: -320
Belgium: +250

3-Way Moneyline

Spain: -160
Belgium: +450
Draw: +290

Total

2.5 (Over -125/Under +100)

Spain vs. Belgium How to Watch

Date: Friday, July 10
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Los Angeles Stadium
How to Watch (TV): FOX, FOX One, Telemundo
Spain record: 4-1-0
Belgium record: 3-2-0

Spain vs. Belgium History and Tournament Results

This is the eighth time that Spain and Belgium have met in international competition, with Spain dominating the previous seven meetings. After a 1-1 draw in their first-ever meeting back in 1986, Spain has won six matches in a row, including the last meeting in a friendly in 2016.

This is the first time that these two countries have met in the World Cup since 1990.

Spain

Spain opened the tournament with a shaky performance against Cape Verde, but it has won four matches in a row, including a 1-0 win over Portugal in the Round of 16.

Lamine Yamal and Co. have scored nine times in this tournament, but the most impressive stat for Spain is that it hasn’t allowed a single goal in the World Cup. Spain has allowed just four goals over its last 10 international matches while averaging over two expected goals per game offensively.

Belgium

Belgium came back to beat Senegal in the Round of 32, and then it turned in one of the most dominant performances of the tournament in the Round of 16, defeating the United States 4-1.

After back-to-back draws to open Group Stage action, Belgium has won three matches in a row, scoring 12 goals in the process.

Over its last 10 international matches, Belgium is 7-3-0 and averaging over two expected goals per game.

Spain vs. Belgium Best Prop Bet

Lamine Yamal Anytime Goal Scorer (+145)

Yamal only has one goal in the 2026 World Cup, but he’s been very involved offensively in the knockout stage.

The 18-year-old has nine shots over his last two games, including six shots on goal. While he hasn’t been able to find the back of the net in those matchups, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through.

In the Round of 32, Yamal had 60 touches and 0.72 expected goals against Austria before following that up with 61 touches and 0.12 expected goals in the Round of 16 against Portugal.

It’s only a matter of time before he breaks through, and I like the price for him at +145 in this match.

Spain vs. Belgium Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have been elite on the offensive end in this World Cup, with Spain scoring nine goals and Belgium scoring 13.

Belgium is one of the best offensive teams in the world over its last 10 games, averaging 2.21 expected goals per match. Spain isn’t far behind, averaging 2.07 expected goals during that same 10-game stretch.

So, I’m taking the OVER in this quarterfinal match with Spain heavily favored to win. Spain’s defense has been really strong in this World Cup, but Belgium has the most potent attack that it has faced so far, scoring three and four goals in the knockout rounds.

Belgium has combined for five or more goals in three straight matches while Spain has scored three or more goals twice since the 0-0 draw against Cape Verde.

I’d much rather take the OVER on Friday than bet on a team to win this in regulation.

Pick: OVER 2.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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