Sparks vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, Aug. 13

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Indiana Fever when they take on the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday night.

These teams have played two close games (both decided by four or less points), yet the Liberty are 8.5-point favorites at home in their third meeting of the regular season. New York split the first two meetings, though Sabrina Ionescu was limited in the first matchup due to ankle and back injuries.

The Sparks look a lot different at this point in the season, as they traded away All-Star guard Kelsey Plum and are clearly building towards the future. Still, Los Angeles gave the Liberty a run without Plum back on July 28, losing 113-109.

Can they hang around on the road on Thursday?

Let’s jump into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for the final meeting between these teams in the 2026 regular season.

Sparks vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sparks +8.5 (-110)
Liberty -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Sparks: +295
Liberty: -375

Total

186.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Sparks vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Sparks record: 12-20
Liberty record: 20-14

Sparks vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Sparks Injury Report

Monique Akoa Makani -- out

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out
Leonie Fiebich -- out

Sparks vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-113)

Sabrina Ionescu had a big game in her last meeting with the Sparks, scoring 27 points while shooting 5-for-9 from beyond the arc.

The star guard is just 3-for-17 from 3 in her last three games, but I’m betting on her breaking out of that slump on Thursday night. The Sparks are 13th in the WNBA in defensive rating, and they’ve struggled to defend the 3-ball, ranking 14th in opponent 3-pointers made per game.

Ionescu is one of the best shooters in the W when healthy, and she’s made three or more shots from beyond the arc in seven of her last 14 games, shooting 35.9 percent from deep (including this 3-for-17 stretch).

With this line down at 2.5, I think she’s a solid buy-low candidate against L.A.

Sparks vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the OVER is a great bet in this matchup:

The Liberty and Sparks have faced off twice this season and both of those games turning into high-scoring affairs.

These teams combined for 195 points in their first meeting when Kelsey Plum was still with the Sparks, but Sabrina Ionescu (two points) was still working her way back from injury. Then, with Plum on the shelf (she’s now with Phoenix) in their second meeting, the Liberty and Sparks combined for 222 points back on July 28.

So, this is a pretty low total, especially since both of these teams have hit the OVER at a high rate this season.

New York has hit the OVER in 64.7 percent of its games (second-best in the WNBA) while the Sparks have done so in 62.5 percent of their contests. The OVER is also 10-6 when L.A. is on the road this season.

New York is getting closer to full strength health wise, but it remains a subpar defense this season, ranking 10th in the league in defensive rating. That’s still much better than this Los Angeles team, which is allowing over 93 points per game while ranking 13th in the league in defensive rating.

The Sparks are also third in the WNBA in pace, which should give each of these teams a few extra possessions on Thursday night. I expect both of these teams to hover around the 100-point mark in their third and final meeting of the 2026 regular season.

Pick: OVER 186.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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