Sportsbook Insiders: Oddsmakers Reveal Most Valuable Quarterback to the Spread Entering Week 1

Week 1 of the 2026 season is just six days away, and now is the perfect time to start examining the lines for next week’s action.

It appears that quarterbacks who suffered season-ending injuries last season, like Patrick Mahomes and Daniel Jones, are on track to play in Week 1, but throughout the season, there will be quarterback injuries that could alter the course of one week, the playoff picture, and much more.

So, the SI Betting team spoke to several oddsmakers ahead of Week 1 to answer a key question:

Which quarterback is the most valuable to his team when it comes to the spread?

“That's always a fun one because it really becomes a game of who has the better backup,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated.

Some quarterbacks may have higher MVP odds, but when it comes to how much their absence would swing a game, the question becomes a little different. Oddsmakers are not only considering the team’s backup quarterback but also how much a specific player does for his team’s offense.

For example, the burden that Josh Allen has on a week-to-week basis is a lot more than that of a player like Brock Purdy, even though Buffalo and San Francisco were both playoff teams in the 2025 season.

After all, the 49ers went 5-3 in eight games with Mac Jones under center in the 2025 season, and Christian McCaffrey – their star running back – has finished in the top four in MVP voting in two of the last three seasons.

While some sportsbooks differ on how much each quarterback is worth, there is a clear consensus on which player is worth the most points to the spread.

Oddsmakers Tab Josh Allen as Most Valuable Quarterback in NFL

Allen is the favorite to win the NFL’s MVP award this season, and even with the addition of DJ Moore on offense, he’s expected to carry the biggest burden in the league.

DraftKings Sportsbook revealed to Sports Illustrated that Allen is worth nine points in their model for the 2026 season.

“Josh Allen – he's nine (points),” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated. “I mean, Kyle Allen has shown nothing. He's not a guy that you would think would come in and be able to even do anything to replicate a Josh Allen. But Josh Allen's just that good, too. I mean, he's one of the best players, best quarterbacks in the league, so that's nine points for him.”

Fanatics Sportsbook, FanDuel and BetMGM are all in the same boat, naming Allen as the most valuable quarterback in the league, but there is a clear difference across the industry when it comes to how many points the Buffalo Bills star is worth.

“Josh Allen, offense is designed around him and his strengths, if he were to miss time it changes everything for the Bills,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM told Sports Illustrated. “Allen is worth 6.5 to 7 points to the spread.”

There are several quarterbacks that DraftKings would move the spread a whole touchdown for (more on that later), but both BetMGM and Fanatics have Allen right around that spot as the quarterback that moves the needle the most.

“We zeroed in on Josh Allen being the most valuable to his team,” Gour said. “Behind him, it's really not that great, and with just how much he runs the ball and how much he commands the offense, we could see them losing as much as six points on a spread, perhaps even more depending on if it's a home game or road game.”

Allen’s rushing ability is an added feature to the Buffalo offense that simply can’t be replicated by any backup. Last season, Allen ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns, carrying the ball 112 times during the regular season. The threat of him on the ground makes the Bills a more dynamic team in the red zone, and it certainly opens things up in the passing game as well.

During the 2024 season, Allen led the league in QBR, and last season he threw for over 3,600 yards and 25 scores. If he were to miss any time, it’s almost guaranteed that the Bills would be considered underdogs in that game, unless they were playing one of the worst teams in the NFL, like their division rival, the Miami Dolphins.

FanDuel didn’t provide an exact number for Allen, but it has him No. 1 out of the five quarterbacks worth the most to the spread.

"Top five quarterbacks to the spread this season would be: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated.

A lot of the usual suspects are backing Allen up, though it’s very interesting to see just how many points each player is worth at each book. That could lead to some slight discrepancies in lines on a week when a player is questionable – or actually out – depending on the opening number.

Several Quarterbacks worth at Least a Touchdown

Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow are some of the first names that come to mind when considering the most important quarterbacks in the league, but a few other players, like reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, are worth as much as 7.5 points at DraftKings in the 2026 season.

“There's some others that are not quite that high,” Avello said. “You've got Drake Maye at 7.5, Tommy DeVito, who I believe – I think is terrible; he's the backup there. There's a couple of other 7.5s. Justin Herbert is 7.5.

“Matthew Stafford is 7.5. You know, we don't know what a guy like Ty Simpson could be. I mean, he has limited experience in college even. He's with a coach that can get the most out of a quarterback, but it's still an unproven commodity there.”

Interestingly enough, DraftKings has Jackson and Mahomes priced behind Maye, Herbert and Stafford, which is much different from the top five at FanDuel.

“And then there's a bunch of guys that are seven,” Avello said. “Lamar Jackson, seven. Tyler Huntley, he's a formidable backup. Mahomes is seven, he's got Justin Fields now. And Dak Prescott is seven, he's got Sam Howell behind him. Caleb Williams has got Tyson Bagent behind him, he's seven. So, that would be the second tier.”

Prescott and Herbert are both considered worth more to their respective teams because of the rest of the depth chart.

“We got four QBs that are kind of all in the same tier, probably worth about 4.5 to five points, and that would be Justin Herbert, mostly just due to the Chargers don't really have a clear backup. It could be Trey Lance, it could be DJ Uiagalelei,” Gour said. “So that was a big reason there. Same thing with the Cowboys, Dak Prescott, really nobody behind him, especially now that they cut Joe Milton.”

There’s no shocking member of this top group, though it is interesting to see how little books are valuing Justin Fields, who was a starter just a season ago.

Gour revealed that Mahomes is worth 4.5 to five points at Fanatics – in that second tier behind Allen – along with Drake Maye, Prescott and Herbert.

“Patrick Mahomes with Justin Fields behind him,” Gour said. “And then Drake Maye – not really sure who the Pats' QB2 is right now – but just it's kind of the same argument as Josh Allen, he commands that offense so much that it doesn't really matter who's following him, he'll be worth quite a lot on his own.”

Even with Mahomes’ status entering the offseason a little up in the air, Fanatics expected him to be ready for Week 1, which has kept the Chiefs as favorites against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

“We assumed that Mahomes was going to be good to go from the get-go until we heard otherwise,” Gour said. And we haven't heard anything to say he has been limited, or the offense will change at all, so we priced him in from the get-go.”

As the season progresses, it’ll be easier to see in real time how much a quarterback injury is worth, but it’s certainly notable that so many players are worth at least 4.5 points in the market ahead of Week 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google