Sportsbook Insiders: Oddsmakers Downgrade Patriots, Questioning Drake Maye’s Consistency in 2026

Regression was expected for the New England Patriots in the 2026 season after they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2025.

Still, New England made the Super Bowl and knocked off the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos in the playoffs. So, the team was favored to make the playoffs entering the 2026 campaign and remained in the top 10 in the league in the odds to win the Super Bowl.

That has changed quite a bit through three weeks, as quarterback Drake Maye (the MVP runner-up in 2025) has struggled mightily, throwing just one touchdown and six interceptions.

Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers to get the current sentiment on the Patriots and whether or not they’re still viewed as a playoff team. While New England is hovering around a pick’em to make the postseason at most books, there aren’t many positive opinions when it comes to Mike Vrabel’s group in 2026.

“We were already skeptical of New England coming into the season, so Drake Maye’s struggles have pushed the Patriots further down rather than dramatically changing our opinion,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Maye has not provided the consistency expected of a franchise quarterback, and his mistakes have exposed an offense with little margin for error. At this point, I do not view the Patriots as a true playoff team. They may remain close enough in the standings to stay relevant, but unless Maye’s play improves significantly, I see them on the outside looking in when the playoffs come around.”

Maye ranks just 29th amongst NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 snaps this season in EPA/Play, and he’s torpedoed games against Seattle and Jacksonville with terrible turnovers.

Even though New England made the Super Bowl last season, the team’s playoff run has even taken a bit of a hit with both the Chargers and Texans off to 0-3 starts in 2026. Plus, the win over Denver last postseason came against a backup in Jarrett Stidham.

Maye has not found his form from early in 2025, but there is a chance that could change in the coming weeks.

“We still view them as a playoff team,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “However, their struggles have pushed them down quite a ways. At the start of the season, they were right below the [Buffalo] Bills, [Baltimore] Ravens, around the [Kansas City] Chiefs sort of area as far as how we viewed them. We viewed them as a likely playoff contender.

“And now we've pushed them down to the fringe playoff team area. If you look on our site, their ‘make playoff’ is almost a pick 'em right now, with the ‘Yes’ being -105. So, we've lost a lot of confidence in them, lost a lot of confidence in Drake Maye.

“However, they do have a bit of a get-right situation. They've had a tough start to the season schedule-wise, and then next they get the [Las Vegas] Raiders, [New York] Jets, [Chicago] Bears and [Miami] Dolphins. None of those four teams have really shown great defenses so far, so they could possibly right the ship and get it back in order quickly, even before A.J. Brown returns to the lineup, which is why we're still hopeful, but definitely more cautious than we were heading into Week 1.”

Losing Brown in Week 1 has certainly impacted a New England offense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play, 30th in EPA/Pass and 21st in success rate. Brown is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and he has to miss two more games before even being eligible to return.

“The Patriots are currently -105 to make the playoffs (slightly favored to miss at -115),” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “The Patriots opened at -190 to make the playoffs and were -210 going into last week. The slow start and the key injury to AJ Brown is a factor as well. Another major factor of the playoff odds is the AFC East title is quickly slipping away, the Bills look great at 3-0 and the easiest way to get into the playoffs is to win your division.”

New England has to take on Buffalo in Week 4, which could really alter how the betting market feels about this team. If the Patriots lose, they’ll be 1-3 and three games out of the AFC East with a head-to-head loss to the Bills. That would likely force New England to look at a wild card spot as the most likely path to a playoff spot in a loaded AFC.

“The Pats have fallen around two points on the power rating from the preseason ratings,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “They're really beat up as well, which is assisted in that adjustment. We still have them a slight favorite at -120 to make the playoffs. This week's matchup against the Bills, that will further adjust the price one way or another.”

Multiple books mentioned dropping the Patriots two points in their power rating, which would explain why New England’s odds shifted quite a bit from the lookahead line (-5.5) against Buffalo in Week 4.

“The Pats have been downgraded over two points from our preseason expectation given the offensive struggles and AJ Brown injury,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “And at this point, we have them slight odds against to miss the playoffs.”

There’s still plenty of time for New England to turn this season around, especially since it isn’t in an 0-3 hole like Houston, Los Angeles or Tampa Bay.

However, it’s pretty clear that the Patriots aren’t going to finish with the 14-3 mark that they had in 2025, especially if Maye doesn’t showcase some of the play that he had in the 2025 season when New England had the No. 1 EPA/Play on offense in the NFL.

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