Sportsbook Insiders: Oddsmakers Monitoring Josh Allen's Legs as MVP Race Tightens

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is favored to win his second NFL MVP award of his career through the first four weeks of the season, but he may not stay in that spot for long.

Allen has seen his lead dwindle atop the MVP market over the last two weeks after shaky performances against the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. Allen has just one touchdown pass and three interceptions over his last two games, and he suffered an apparent knee injury in the Week 3 over Los Angeles

Even though Allen practiced in full in the lead up to Week 4 against New England, his knee injury was something that traders were monitoring when it came to the MVP race.

Fanatics Sportsbook trader Ty Gour mentioned to Sports Illustrated ahead of Week 4 that a knee injury could really crush Allen’s MVP case because of his dual-threat ability. After Allen had just five carries for four yards in Week 4, the market has moved against the Bills star.

“Josh Allen did actually move out quite a bit,” Gour told Sports Illustrated this week. “He was +150 heading into Sunday. He is +250 now. The biggest reason for that – well, the loss certainly didn't help – but it was something that we mentioned last week: the rushing usage plummeted. He only had five carries for four yards. Didn't seem like they were doing many designed runs, didn't seem like they were really trying to get him to use his legs unless it was a goal-line situation.

“So, we're going to continue to monitor that. If that rushing usage stays lower, it's going to open the door for the rest of the contenders to really make a swing on that market as well. And you're already seeing that as well – this wasn't necessarily notable line movement, but [Brock] Purdy did drop down from +500 to +400, so he is closing that gap and could potentially move into even a co-favorite position this week.”

Allen currently has a small lead over Purdy in the MVP race at the best NFL betting sites, and there’s a real argument for him to win the award at this point in the season.

“Purdy and [Trevor] Lawrence are the big movers in the MVP market,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “If it ended today, Purdy most likely would take home the hardware. No concerns for Allen at this time with only 25 percent of the season behind us, but will certainly be monitoring his efforts at L.A. this week.”

Outside of Allen and Purdy, both Patrick Mahomes and Lawrence are shorter than 7/1 to win MVP this season.

NFL MVP Odds

Josh Allen: +280
Brock Purdy: +300
Patrick Mahomes: +650
Trevor Lawrence: +650
Lamar Jackson: +1000
Dak Prescott: +1000
Joe Burrow: +1700
Matthew Stafford: +3000
Jahmyr Gibbs: +4500
Drake Maye: +4500
Jalen Hurts: +5000
Bryce Young: +5000
Bijan Robinson: +5000
Kenneth Walker III: +5500
Jared Goff: +5500
Caleb Williams :+6000

Allen’s rushing ability is one of the things that separates him from just about every other quarterback in the NFL.

This season, he’s carried the ball 33 times for 118 yards and seven touchdowns, scoring at least once on the ground in every game (twice in three of his games). If the Bills quarterback is actually banged up enough where the team decides to limit his rushing attempts, it could hurt his touchdown numbers and his overall impact on each game.

Allen is a great passer – and he threw a huge touchdown to Keon Coleman in the second half of Week 4 – but he’s already been picked off three times in 2026 and is completing less of his passes than he did in 2025.

The other worry for Allen is that the Week 4 loss has let New England back into the division race. Allen’s MVP case in 2025 was crushed by the fact that Drake Maye and the Patriots finished ahead of Buffalo in the standings, and New England currently holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo with their only remaining regular season matchup left being a road game for the Bills.

Allen didn’t carry an injury designation in Week 4, but it’s clear that Gour and other traders are noticing that he may not be 100 percent himself.

MVP bettors should take note before a marquee matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who are a top-10 defense in EPA/Play and success rate so far this season. If Allen posts yet another down game, there’s a chance he’ll fall out of the top spot in this market going into Week 6.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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