Spurs vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Target Luka Doncic, Chris Paul on Thursday)

The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs begin their 2024-25 regular seasons on Thursday, and there is plenty of star power to watch in this matchup.

Dallas made the Finals last season – led by scoring champion Luka Doncic – and it added veteran Klay Thompson in a sign-and-trade to an already impressive core.

In San Antonio, reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama is looking to make a leap to an All-NBA player – potentially leading the Spurs to the play-in tournament in the process. The Spurs added veteran guard Chris Paul and veteran forward Harrison Barnes in some offseason moves, which should raise the team’s floor this season.

So, how should we wager on this matchup when it comes to the prop market? I have three stars that I’m targeting for Thursday’s contest.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Spurs vs. Mavericks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)
Chris Paul OVER 7.5 Assists (-130)
Victor Wembanyama OVER 5.5 Steals and Blocks (+105)

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110)

Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer last season, has a points prop of 29.5 against San Antonio, and I think he’s massively undervalued.

Yes, the Spurs had a solid defense when Wemby was on the floor, but they ended up just 21st overall in defensive rating in the 2023-24 season.

Now, Doncic gets a chance to attack this defense with more offense in the starting lineup now that Thompson is in the fold.

Maybe that leads to Luka passing the ball more, but let’s not forget that he’s averaged 32.4 and 33.9 points per game over the last two seasons.

Luka took a career-high 23.6 shots per game, bumping his 3-point attempts from 8.2 to 10.6 per game from the 2022-23 season to the 2023-24 season.

If the usage stays the same for Luka – and it should – I think he’s undervalued if this prop is anywhere below 30.5.

Chris Paul OVER 7.5 Assists (-130)

Last season, CP3 averaged 6.8 assists per game in mainly a bench role (40 of his 58 games were off the bench) with the Golden State Warriors.

Now, he’s walking into a starting role with the Spurs and has an elite lob threat in Wembanyama to lean on.

In his career, Paul has just two seasons where he averaged less than 7.8 assists per game, and I expect Gregg Popovich to lean on him to lead this team – especially if the Spurs want to make the playoffs.

Don’t be shocked if CP3 pushes double-digit assists on Thursday night.

Victor Wembanyama OVER 5.5 Steals and Blocks (+105)

The favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award this season, Wembanyama led the NBA with 3.6 blocks per game in his rookie season.

The Spurs star averaged 1.2 steals per game as well, but his numbers took off over the final two months when the Spurs lifted his minutes restriction.

In March and April, Wemby averaged 4.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game, posting eight games where he cleared 5.5 steals in blocks (out of 17).

At plus money, this prop is worth a shot given Wembanyama’s insane size and defensive ability.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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