Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Oct. 28

A marquee matchup in the Western Conference is set for Wednesday, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the undefeated Oklahoma City Thunder take on former No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks.

It’s been a rough first week of the season for Oklahoma City, yet it continues to find ways to win games. Jalen Williams (ankle) and Cason Wallace (shoulder) are both down for months – and potentially the rest of the season – which has already thrust players like Ajay Mitchell (questionable for this game), Jared McCain and more into bigger roles.

Mitchell responded with a huge game in a win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday, and the Thunder are hoping he’s ready to make a leap as SGA’s sidekick on offense.

Plus, the Thunder are now down Chet Holmgren (knee) for Wednesday’s contest. So, the depth of this team is going to be tested against a Mavs team that has been solid through the first week of the season.

Meanwhile, Dallas pulled off a huge upset over Miami on Monday night and is 2-2 through four games. Can the Mavericks get into the playoff hunt with the Flagg-Kyrie Irving duo? Irving is listed as questionable on Wednesday, which could throw a wrench into Dallas’ plans for an upset.

Oddsmakers have the Mavs around the play-in range in the West, and they remain home dogs in this matchup despite all of OKC’s injuries early on in the season.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -6.5 (-105)
Mavs +6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Thunder: -230
Mavs: +190

Total

228.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Mavericks How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 28
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Thunder record: 4-0
Mavs record: 2-2

Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Jalen Williams – out
Alex Caruso – out
Chet Holmgren – out
Cason Wallace – out
Thomas Sorber – out
Ajay Mitchell – questionable
Nikola Topic – out

Mavs Injury Report

Santi Aldama – doubtful
Tarik Biberovic – doubtful
Kyrie Irving – questionable
Sergio de Larrea – out
Naji Marshall – questionable
Caleb Martin – questionable
Dereck Lively II – out

Thunder vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Cooper Flagg 38+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

In today’s edition of my best NBA props for SI Betting, I shared why Flagg is one of my favorite prop targets, even against an elite defense:

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg looks ready to make a leap into stardom – and potentially an All-NBA sport – this season.

Flagg is averaging 25.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists in three games, even though a shoulder injury forced him from a win over Indiana early. He missed the Mavs’ loss to San Antonio, but Flagg returned with a big game in a win over Miami, dropping 29 points, six rebounds, 11 assists and five steals.

Dallas is now 2-2 this season (2-1 when Flagg plays), and it could be a sneaky upset pick against an OKC team that won’t have Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams or Cason Wallace on Wednesday.

I’m trusting Flagg in the prop market, as he’s finished with 39 and 46 PRA in his two completed games this season. Against Indiana, Flagg was well on his way to clearing this number, dropping 14 points, five rebounds and six dimes in just 17 minutes of action.

Even against an elite Thunder defense, Flagg is worth a look – especially with all those key rotation players sidelined.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

The Thunder have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, but I’m not buying them with this many injuries on Wednesday night.

Four of their top seven rotation players are out, and if Mitchell also sits in this game, I have serious questions about where this team gets enough offense against a solid Dallas team.

The Mavs are 2-1 when Cooper Flagg plays, knocking off two potential playoff teams in the East in Miami and Indiana early in the season. Irving (questionable) could swing this game with his status, but I still like the Mavs as two-possession dogs on Tuesday.

Dallas has some intriguing young pieces around Flagg, and the Thunder simply don’t have the same scoring punch with all of these injuries and the fact that they let Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins all walk out the door in the offseason in trades.

I’ll take the points with a Dallas team that could be in the play-in mix in the West this season.

Pick: Mavs +6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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