Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 15

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder have won seven games in a row, and they find themselves as major favorites on Sunday afternoon in a marquee matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves have a chance to clinch the season series between these teams with a win, as they’ve won two of the three meetings so far. However, Minnesota has suffered some bad losses recently, slipping to the No. 5 seed in a wild Western Conference playoff race.

Anthony Edwards (knee) is questionable for the Timberwolves on Sunday, but he’s been on the injury report and played on several instances over the last month. Meanwhile, Jalen Williams (hamstring) is out for OKC while Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) is listed as questionable.

The Timberwolves won both of their meetings at home against the Thunder, and their road loss to them came by just eight points. So, are oddsmakers undervaluing Edwards and company in this matchup?

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this Western Conference showdown on Sunday afternoon.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Timberwolves +9.5 (-118)
Thunder -9.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +310
Thunder: -395

Total

225.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Timberwolves vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 15
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Timberwolves record: 41-26
Thunder record: 52-15

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Anthony Edwards – questionable
Joan Beringer – out
Enrique Freeman – out
Julian Phillips – out
Zyon Pullin – out

Thunder Injury Report

Jalen Williams – out
Nikola Topic – out
Thomas Sorber – out
Brooks Barnhizer – out
Branden Carlson – out
Isaiah Hartenstein – questionable

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ Assists (-159)

SGA has seven or more dimes in two of his three meetings with the Timberwolves, finishing with at least six dimes in each game. Minnesota’s defense has slipped out of the top 10 in the league in defensive rating (now 11th), and SGA has been on a playmaking tear with teams sending more and more double teams at him to stop his insane scoring streak.

The Thunder guard has eight or more dimes in three of his last four games, pushing his season average to 6.6 assists per game.

The Wolves rank 10th in the league in opponent assists per game this season, but I love this matchup for SGA after Minnesota allowed 119 points to Orlando, 120 to the Los Angeles Lakers and 153th to the Los Angeles Clippers before beating Golden State on Friday.

SGA has several games with at least seven dimes this season, and he’s averaging 9.1 assists per game in eight games since Feb. 1.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

The Timberwolves have played the Thunder as well as just about anyone this season, and they’re 5-5 against the spread overall when set as road underdogs.

Edwards’ injury is worth monitoring on Sunday, but if the star guard plays, I can’t help but take the points in this matchup. Not only do the Wolves have two outright wins over OKC, but they only lost by eight against the Thunder earlier this season.

OKC has been dominant this season, ranking No. 1 in the league in net rating, but it has fallen to 14-19 against the spread when favored at home. So, there’s no guarantee that the Thunder run away with this game, especially with Williams out and Hartenstein questionable.

In fact, despite a long winning streak, OKC has a net rating of just +5.1 over its last 10 games. That’s pretty shocking since the team is 9-1 during that stretch.

The Thunder likely win this game at home (they’re 28-6 at Paycom Center this season), but the Wolves are a playoff-caliber team that has matched up well with OKC in the past. I think they keep this game within 10 points on Sunday.

Pick: Timberwolves +9.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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