Troy vs. James Madison Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 9

The James Madison Dukes' undefeated season ended last week with a loss to the Appalachian State Mountaineers in overtime.

They'll look bounce back on Thursday night when they host the Troy Tojans in a Sun Belt showdown.

The Dukes are still leading the Sun Belt East at 4-1 in conference play, while Troy has struggled to begin the season, sitting at just 1-2 in conference competition.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for this Thursday night showdown.

Troy vs. James Madison Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Troy +21 (-110)
James Madison -21 (-110)

Moneyline

Troy +900
James Madison -1600

Total

OVER 50.5 (-118)
UNDER 50.5 (-102)

Troy vs. James Madison How to Watch

Date: Saturday, October 29
Time: 7:30 pm ET
Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Troy record: 3-4 (1-2 in Sun Belt)
James Madison record: 7-1 (4-1 in Sun Belt)

Troy vs. James Madison Betting Trends

The UNDER is 9-1 in Troy's last 10 games
Troy is 2-5 against the spread this season
James Madison is 6-2 against the spread this season

Troy vs. James Madison Key Player to Watch

George Pettaway, RB - James Madison Dukes

James Madison is a run-first football team that's led by their starting running back, George Pettaway. He has racked up 824 yards and eight touchdowns on 124 carries this season, averaging 6.6 yards per rush. Nick Herman has also been an effective running back in relief for Pettaway, averaging 6.5 yards per rush. Troy will have to try to find a way to stop the run if they want to remain competitive in this game.

Troy vs. James Madison Prediction and Best Bet

I don't think there's enough difference between these two teams to justify a three-touchdown spread. Troy has some strong aspects to its team, including ranking 44th in the country in EPA per rush and 45th in defensive success rate.

There's no doubt that JMU is better on both sides of the football, but when betting on point spreads, exactly HOW much better a team is than its opponent is the only question we care about. Overall, James Madison ranks 60th in net adjusted EPA per play and 55th in net success rate. The Trojans rank 110th and 89th in those two metrics. That illustrates perfectly that while the Dukes are the better team, I don't think they're good enough to the point that I'd feel comfortable laying this number on them.

I'll take the points with the Trojans.

Pick: Troy +21 (-110) via DraftKings

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