Twins vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 9

Both the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers are well under .500 and on the outside looking in for the final wild card spot in the American League heading into Wednesday afternoon’s series finale.

After splitting the first two games of this series, Detroit is favored at home in Game 3 with Keider Montero (3.52 ERA) on the mound against Minnesota’s Zebby Matthews (4.69 ERA).

The Tigers are now 7.5 games out of the third wild card spot in the AL, so their season may be over even if they close out the final two weeks on a high note. Meanwhile, Minnesota is within striking distance (4.5 games out) if it can go on a long winning streak.

Montero has been the better of these two pitchers this season, but he allowed six runs in his last start while the Twins have six of Matthews’ last seven outings. Does that open the door for an upset on Wednesday?

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this AL Central showdown.

Twins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Twins +1.5 (-205)
Tigers -1.5 (+168)

Moneyline

Twins: +107
Tigers: -128

Total

8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Twins vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

Minnesota: Zebby Matthews (9-9, 4.69 ERA)
Detroit: Keider Montero (9-8, 3.52 ERA)

Twins vs. Tigers How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Comerica Park
How to Watch (TV): Tigers.TV/Twins.TV
Twins record: 69-76
Tigers record: 66-79

Twins vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+373)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Greene is worth a look against Minnesota:

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene has 19 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s been red hot over the last week since coming off the injured list.

In seven games, Greene is hitting .333 with three home runs, 10 runs batted in and seven extra-base hits. Overall, the three-time All-Star is hitting .277 with an .836 OPS in the 2026 season.

Greene has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, homering 14 times with an .855 OPS. On Wednesday, he takes on Minnesota Twins righty Zebby Matthews, who has given up 22 home runs in 20 appearances this season, including a three-homer game in his last start.

Matthews has a 4.69 ERA, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Tigers and Greene hang a crooked number against him in this series finale.

Twins vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

The Twins have been great in Matthews’ recent starts, but I’m still not buying the young right-hander this season.

Matthews ranks in the 27th percentile in expected ERA and the 28th percentile in expected BAA this season, allowing at least four runs in eight of his 20 outings. On top of that, he was rocked by Detroit for nine hits and seven runs earlier this season.

Even after a poor start against Cleveland his last time out, Montero has an expected ERA in the 79th percentile this season for the Tigers.

Detroit isn’t going to make the playoffs, but it has a plus-50 run differential, which is much better than Minnesota (minus-48). The Twins are also 11 games under .500 on the road, so I’m going to avoid them with Matthews on the mound.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-128 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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