Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Wednesday, July 29

The Golden State Valkyries have won nine of their last 10 games and flew up the WNBA standings before the All-Star break, establishing themselves as real contenders to win a title.

Now, the Valkyries hit the road on Wednesday to face Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury. Phoenix is going to need a massive second half to get into playoff contention, as it is currently eight games under .500.

Golden State is 2-0 against the Mercury this season, though both of those matchups were played at Chase Center. Now, Gabby Williams and Co. are looking to build on that success on the road to remain in the mix for the top spot in the WNBA standings.

Phoenix has struggled in the 2026 season after making the Finals in 2025, and it has yet to cover the spread in a single game as a home underdog. Does that change tonight?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference showdown.

Valkyries vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Valkyries -5.5 (-110)
Mercury +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Valkyries: -225
Mercury: +182

Total

155.5 (Over -111/Under -109)

Valkyries vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 29
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): USA Network, CNBC, Arizona Family of Sports, KPIX+, Merc+
Valkyries record: 19-8
Mercury record: 10-18

Valkyries vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Valkyries Injury Report

Gabby Williams -- questionable

Mercury Injury Report

None to report

Valkyries vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kahleah Copper UNDER 2.5 Assists (-166)

Mercury star Kahleah Copper is averaging just 1.8 assists per game in the 2026 season, and now she’s taking on a Golden State team that is No. 1 in the league in defensive rating, opponent points per game and opponent assists per game.

Copper cleared this line in her first meeting with the Valkyries (four dimes), but she had just one assist in their last matchup. Overall, the star guard has just seven games all season (out of 27) with three or more assists.

Given the matchup, I’d be shocked to see Copper put up a big assist number, as Golden State is allowing just 18.4 opponent assists per game.

Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m trusting Golden State to cover on the road:

Golden State already has two wins (both at home) by six or more points against this Phoenix team, and it comes out of the break with the best defensive rating in the WNBA.

The Mercury have not been good in the 2026 season, as they rank 10th in the league in net rating (minus-4.2), 12th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. Alyssa Thomas has been floated in trade rumors ahead of the deadline, a sign that the Mercury are ready to change their core despite making the Finals in 2025.

Phoenix has yet to cover the spread as a home underdog this season (0-4 to date), and I don’t expect it to upset this Golden State team that was rolling before the break, winning nine of its last 10 games.

The Valkyries are an elite defensive team, and they should be able to slow a Mercury offense that is ninth in the league in both effective field goal percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. Plus, the Valkyries are a league-best 3-2 against the spread as road favorites, posting an average scoring margin of plus-10.2 points per game in those matchups.

Pick: Valkyries -5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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