For the last three seasons, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has thrown for 22, 19, and 21 touchdowns. Yet his passing touchdown total according to Westgate Superbook is just 17.5 for the 2020 season with even odds of -110 for both the over and under.

The Raiders added more weapons for Carr hading into the season by drafting wide receiver Henry Ruggs III in the first round and signed Nelson Agholor in free agency. So why did the oddsmakers set his Over/Under touchdown total at Carr’s career low? Sports Illustrated’s gambling analysts Jaime Eisner and Frank Taddeo weigh in.

Read the full transcript from their interview below:

Bill Enright: Our player prop coverage continues at Sports Illustrated as we take a look at another quarterback and his passing touchdowns total for 2020 with a look at Derek Carr. Let's bring on Jaime Eisner and Frank Taddeo, two of our fantasy and gambling analysts here at SI. And Jaime, I'll start with you. The number for Carr is set at 17.5. To me, that seems like a really low number. What do you think?

Jaime Eisner: Yeah, it shocked me when Westgate came out with this number, and they're basically saying they expect Marcus Mariota to take over the starting role in Las Vegas at some point this season. There's no other explanation for having that total where it is. I just don't see it. I know he signed a big contract, at least for a backup quarterback this offseason, but I don't think he showed you anything in Tennessee to say that he's better than the way Derek Carr has been operating Jon Gruden's offense recently. And you bring in Henry Rugs, you have Tyrell Williams coming back healthy, another year of Waller after a breakout. If Carr returns to that 5% TD rate he had a few years ago, he only needs 360 pass attempts to get over this total. If he has that 4.1% TD rate he had last year, he only needs 440 attempts to go over this total. He's averaging over 550 per season and never had fewer than 513. If he stays healthy even for fourteen games this year, there's no way he doesn't go over this total.

Bill Enright: Frank, let me go over to you and talk about Marcus Mariota, because Jaime kind of mentioned it. From what we've seen from him the last few years in Tennessee, I mean, he hasn't outplayed Derek Carr by any means, and he certainly hasn't shown that skill set that had him as a top 2 pick back when he was drafted in 2015.

Frank Taddeo: No, you're 100% right, Bill. I don't envision any way that he could take this job from Derek Carr. But then I stop and I have to hesitate when you see a number this low. The Westgate superbook is a shop book. They are really in tune. Where are the Raiders located now? In Las Vegas, where is the Superbook located? Here in Las Vegas. This line smells fishy. Is there a chance that perhaps Jay Kornegay or someone over at the at the Superbook has been in contact or sat down and had a drink or maybe a time during this pandemic with maybe Gruden or Mayock? Because this number seems a little bit way too low. And I agree, my initial response is, this number is so low, you have to go over for a quarterback who's averaged 23.8 touchdowns per season in his career. But now all of a sudden we see him at 17.5. Did Gruden or Mayock maybe leak that there's a chance that they really like Mariota and there could be a really short hook or a short leash with Carr this year in 2020? I don't know, Bill, but this number makes me hesitate. For me right now, it's a pass until I can see more what's going on. But this number being so low, it screams to go over and they're begging you to go over. And when a sharp book begs you to go over, you need to stop, hesitate and look because there's a chance this number could go way down, if he has a short leash and we see Mariota more than most people expect, Bill.