Vikings vs. Buccaneers Score Prediction for NFL Week 3 (Can Tampa Bay Pull Off the Upset?)

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are facing a must-win scenario in Week 3 of the NFL season, as they’re underdogs at home against the Minnesota Vikings.

A Week 2 loss to the Cleveland Browns dropped Tampa Bay to 0-2, and it’s in danger of falling out of the mix in the NFC playoff picture unless it’s able to rebound to win the shaky NFC South.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are off to a 2-0 start and will have starting quarterback Kyler Murray back in action after a concussion sidelined him for most of Week 1 and all of Week 2. The Vikes have two division wins over Green Bay and Chicago, putting themselves in a great spot to make the playoffs in 2026.

Dating back to last season, Minnesota has won seven games in a row, and Kevin O’Connell’s team has done it with a revolving door at quarterback. Can Murray bring some stability to the position going forward?

All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing score predictions for just about every NFL matchup. Every Sunday we run a story where we predict every score for the day’s action, and there are also individual score predictions that the team will make each week to help bettors decide their spread, moneyline and total picks.

We’re hoping to guide bettors in the right direction for their NFL plays, and potentially get a score exactly correct in the process by analyzing the latest odds, trends and market movement.

So, let’s take a look at the score prediction for this key NFC battle in Week 3.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Vikings -1.5 (-108)
Buccaneers +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Vikings: -122
Buccaneers: +102

Total

42.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites in this game, but the line has moved slightly towards Tampa Bay (now a 1.5-point dog) ahead of kickoff. The Bucs are off to an 0-2 start, and it’s pretty shocking they’re home dogs since they entered the season as the favorite in the NFC South.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Score Prediction

This week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his best bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week. This week, he’s taking the UNDER in Vikings vs. Bucs:

I have some major concerns about the Buccaneers' offense. Their underlying metrics are completely average, despite playing two bad defenses to begin the season. Baker Mayfield has also looked like a shell of himself, missing key throws in big moments. Now, he has to play against a stifling Brian Flores-led Vikings defense that is going to blitz him the entire game. I can't imagine Mayfield facing a Vikings blitz is going to go well for Tampa Bay.

On the other sideline, I also have little faith in the Vikings' offense. Even with Kyler Murray back in the lineup, they have ranked just 30th in success rate through the first two weeks.

With this game involving one elite defense and two middling offenses, I think we're going to see a low-scoring affair.

The Vikings held a vaunted Bears offense to just three points (in a bad weather game) in Week 2, and Brian Flores’ squad is seventh in the league in EPA/Play and fourth in success rate. That’s bad news for a Tampa Bay team that has been very turnover prone in 2026 and failed to beat a bad Cleveland team in Week 2.

Still, I’m going to buy low on the Bucs at home in this matchup.

Minnesota certainly benefited from the weather in Week 2, and the Bucs know their season may be on the line if they fall to 0-3. The Vikings’ offense hasn’t been great so far this season, and it struggled early against Green Bay with Murray under center.

I think Tampa Bay grabs a win in an ugly matchup in Week 3.

Final Score Prediction: Bucs, 22, Vikings 19

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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