Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Rays vs. Brewers World Series Game 1)

The 2026 World Series is here, and we’ll have a first-time champion in seven games or fewer.

Not many people would’ve predicted this World Series matchup, which is a bit surprising since these are the top teams in each league. The Tampa Bay Rays won the top seed in the AL with a 98-64 record, and the Milwaukee Brewers led the NL with a 103-59 campaign.

The Brewers have had a week off after sweeping the Dodgers, while the Rays had just a few days after closing out Cleveland in Game 6.

Let’s get right into the MLB best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Friday, Oct. 23.

MLB Best Bets for Friday, Oct. 23

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tampa Bay Rays (+162) at Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Tampa Bay Rays (+162) at Milwaukee Brewers

I explained in the World Series Game 1 betting preview why I think there’s value on the underdog tonight:

I don’t quite understand how the Brewers are nearly two-dollar favorites here in Game 1. Even if the Rays do go with Nick Martinez rather than Drew Rasmussen, these teams are closer than -198 and +162.

This is the first time the Brewers have been this big of a favorite since closing at -217 in Game 1 of the NLDS, and that was Jacob Misiorowski against Robbie Ray. Martinez and Rasmussen are both better than Ray, and there could be some rust in the Brewers’ bats after a week off.

Tampa Bay may not have been great on the road in the regular season at 43-38, but the Rays are 3-1 on the road in the playoffs, including two crucial wins in Cleveland and the victory to complete the sweep in New York.

There is value here on the Rays at such a big price.

Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)

I also broke down why I’m fading Jacob Misiorowski in the strikeout department:

Jacob Misiorowski only had six strikeouts against the Padres and five against the Dodgers, and I don’t see him getting to seven against the Rays.

Tampa Bay’s 19.1% strikeout rate is the second-best in the league, and the Rays only struck out 66 times in their nine playoff games – 7.33 per contest.

The Brewers have had a shorter leash on Misiorowski in the playoffs, perhaps due to their deep bullpen behind him. He was pulled after 88 pitches in the NLDS and 94 pitches in the NLCS.

Maybe the Brewers let him go longer after 11 days off, but I’m willing to bet against that. And even if he does pitch five or six innings, the Rays make enough contact to give me confidence in this bet.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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