Willson Contreras Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Can Red Sox Slugger Go Deep?)

Willson Contreras has been a 20-home run player throughout most of his career. But he’s already reached 20 home runs at the All-Star break in his first season with the Boston Red Sox.

The 34-year-old slugger hit 20 home runs in 135 games last year with the Cardinals, and has not only matched that but is batting a career-high .285 with a .921 OPS through 88 games this season.

In a Home Run Derby with a finite number of swings (20 in the first round, 15 in the second, 15 in the finals), that could benefit someone like Contreras. On top of that, it seems like there’s always a surprise player in the field who makes a run at this thing.

Let’s take a look at Contreras’ odds to win the Home Run Derby in 2026, as well as my prediction for his performance.

Willson Contreras Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +1400
To Make Final: +500
Round 1 Total: 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
To Make the Semifinals: +155
To Have Longest Home Run: +1500

Willson Contreras Home Run Derby Prediction

Contreras is in the middle of a five-game suspension for his role in a benches-clearing brawl against the Nationals, and the Red Sox slugger has a foot contusion, but that isn’t stopping him from participating in the Home Run Derby.

Perhaps those are factoring into his longshot odds to win it all, though; well, at least the injury.

Contreras did hit home runs in back-to-back games last Saturday and Sunday in Anaheim, and then went 2 for 6 in his next two games before leaving with that injury.

Citizens Bank Park is a bit more friendly to left-handed hitters, so the right-handed Contreras may have a little bit of a harder time leaving the yard during his 20 (and hopefully 15) swings.

It’d be easy to chalk up Contreras’ power surge to the Green Monster at Fenway Park, but he has 10 home runs at home and 10 on the road this season.

Ultimately, I think one of Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper will win it all, and most likely Schwarber, but there’s going to be a surprise to make it to the semifinals and quite possibly the final. Why not Contreras? His odds to make the final are the same or longer than three players to win it all.

Pick(s): Contreras to Make Final (+500)

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