Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

A pair of Western Conference teams square off in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs, as the No. 2-seeded Golden State Valkyries host the No. 7-seeded Dallas Wings in the fourth and final Game 1 matchup on Sunday.

Dallas is set as the biggest underdog on the board, even though it leapfrogged the New York Liberty in the closing days of the regular season to earn the No. 7 seed. The Wings lost No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd for the season due to a knee injury, but Paige Bueckers and Co. closed the regular season by winning seven of their last 10 games.

Golden State had a shot at the No. 1 seed this season, but it came just short of overtaking the Minnesota Lynx. Still, this team has the No. 1 net rating and defensive rating in the WNBA, sitting in third in the latest odds to win the Finals.

During the regular season, the Valkyries went a perfect 3-0 against Dallas, winning each matchup by at least eight points. Can they keep that rolling in this critical Game 1 matchup?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for the final playoff game on Sunday, Sept. 27.

Wings vs. Valkyries Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Wings +7.5 (-115)
Valkyries -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Wings: +220
Valkyries: -270

Total

155.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Wings vs. Valkyries How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Center
How to Watch (TV): USA Network
Series: Tied 0-0

Wings vs. Valkyries Injury Reports

Wings Injury Report

Alanna Smith -- out
Azzi Fudd -- out

Valkyries Injury Report

None to report

Wings vs. Valkyries Best WNBA Prop Bet

Wings Best WNBA Prop Bet

Paige Bueckers 18+ Points (-167)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Bueckers is a solid prop target against Golden State:

Wings guard Paige Bueckers finished the regular season averaging 20.9 points per game while shooting 51.2 percent from the field and 41.0 percent from 3.

The former No. 1 overall pick is being asked to handle a massive workload with Azzi Fudd out for the season, scoring 18 or more points in 10 of her last 12 games and all four games since the 2026 FIBA World Cup break.

Against the Valkyries, Bueckers has 21, 17 and 15 points this season, but she had 21 in her last matchup against them. I expect a heavy workload for the star guard, especially since the Wings are underdogs to advance. They may play Bueckers, Jessica Shepard and Arike Ogunbowale most of the game on Saturday.

Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction and Pick

The Valkyries have three wins over the Wings by eight or more points this season, and Golden State has been dominant at home, going 17-5 straight up.

The Wings, on the other hand, were just 11-11 on the road in the regular season with a net rating of minus-1.3. That’s a major concern, especially since the Wings are down a starter in Azzi Fudd for the rest of the campaign.

Golden State is an elite defensive team, and I’m worried that Dallas doesn’t have enough offensive firepower after Bueckers to win this series.

In the two meetings between these teams in Golden State, Dallas lost by 11 and eight points. I think it’ll struggle against a Valkyries team that was 11-6 against the spread as a home favorite with a plus-10.9 average scoring margin in those 17 games.

Pick: Valkyries -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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