Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A’ja Wilson in Aces-Fever, Lynx vs. Liberty)

The Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx have their backs against the wall in the WNBA Playoffs on Tuesday, as both teams dropped Game 1 matchups on Sunday, but they are favored in Game 2.

The Fever were blown out by A’ja Wilson (38 points) and the Las Vegas Aces in Game 1, but they are 1.5-point favorites at home in Game 2, a sign that oddsmakers expect them to force a winner-take-all Game 3 with a spot in the WNBA Semifinals on the line.

In the No. 1 vs. No, 8 matchup, the New York Liberty and Breanna Stewart upset the Lynx on Sunday, winning by 16 points on the road. Now, the Liberty are +600 to win the WNBA Finals, though they are 3.5-point home dogs in Game 2. If the Liberty win, it would be a shocking upset since Minnesota entered the playoffs at +115 to win the Finals.

So, with two great matchups that are expected to be very close set for Tuesday, how should bettors navigate the slate?

After hitting two of my three plays for the Game 1 action on Sunday, I’m back with a player prop and a side for the two Game 2s on Tuesday night.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 105-90 (-5.04 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 280-255-2 (-2.14 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

A’ja Wilson OVER 28.5 Points (-116)
Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-155) vs. New York Liberty

A’ja Wilson OVER 28.5 Points (-116)

A’ja Wilson dropped 38 points on 15-of-19 shooting (2-for-2 from 3) in Game 1 against the Fever, dominating the game on both ends of the floor. She had two steals, four blocks and 16 rebounds for the defending champs, leaving no doubt in a 17-point win at home.

Now, Wilson goes on the road, where the Aces were an impressive 16-6 this season.

Rather than betting on Las Vegas to win this game outright, I’m going to take the reigning league MVP to drop 29 or more points on Tuesday.

Wilson averaged over 26 points per game during the team’s playoff run in 2025, and the Fever are a weak defensive team, ranking eighth in the league in defensive rating and 11th in opponent points per game during the regular season.

Sunday’s game was the first time Wilson cleared this prop against the Fever in 2026, but she’s scored 29 or more points in four of her five games since the FIBA World Cup break.

I think this line is reasonable for the star forward, especially since Indy loves to push the pace (No. 2 in the WNBA), which usually leads to more high-scoring games. Wilson and the Aces cracked the 100-point threshold in Game 1, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another track meet in Game 2.

The best player in the WNBA, Wilson has shown up time and time again in the playoffs, and I don’t expect anything different with a chance to end this first-round series on Tuesday night.

Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-155) vs. New York Liberty

The Lynx did not play well in their Game 1 loss to the Liberty, shooting just 42 percent from the field while turning the ball over 13 times. New York, on the other hand, was over 50 percent from the field and from 3 as Breanna Stewart poured in 34 points.

New York has a ton of playoff experience from its title run in 2024, but I think the Lynx will be able to force a Game 3 later on this week.

Minnesota was 10-8 against the spread as a road favorite this season, posting an average scoring margin plus-9.4 per game in those contests. The Liberty are not a pushover team with all their veteran leadership, but New York was pretty average at home (14-8) in the regular season while the Lynx won 18 or their 22 road games.

I’m expecting a bounce-back showing from Minnesota’s offense, especially since New York was far from an elite defensive team in the regular season (seventh in defensive rating). The Liberty lost back-to-back home games to Atlanta to drop to the No. 8 seed this season, so I don’t think the Lynx are being overvalued as road favorites.

I’m going to forget the points and simply bet on the team that was No. 1 in the league all season long to earn a win and keep its season alive. If Minnesota is upset, I wouldn’t be shocked if there ends up being a major change to the roster in the offseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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