Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Paige Bueckers, Fever vs. Aces, Mystics vs. Dream)

The WNBA Playoffs begin on Sunday, Sept. 27 with all four first round series beginning, starting with the WNBA Finals favorite – the Minnesota Lynx – hosting the New York Liberty:

No. 8 New York Liberty vs. No. 1 Minnesota Lynx – 2 p.m. EST
No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Las Vegas Aces – 4 p.m. EST
No. 5 Washington Mystics vs. No. 4 Atlanta Dream – 7 p.m. EST
No. 7 Dallas Wings vs. No. 2 Golden State Valkyries – 9 p.m. EST

All eight playoff teams have been set since before the league went to the 2026 FIBA World Cup break, but the Fever, Liberty, Mystics and Wings all saw their spot in the standings change over the final two games of the regular season.

That sets up some interesting first-round matchups, especially since lower seeds like New York, Washington and Indiana actually won their regular-season series with their first-round opponents.

So, we could see some upsets on Sunday, as no team is favored by more than 7.5 points (Golden State) in Game 1.

I’ll be breaking down these games and some of my favorite bets all postseason long in SI Betting’s WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points.

Here’s a look at a few plays that I’m eyeing for the Game 1 action on Sunday.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 103-89 (-5.28 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 278-254-2 (-2.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-155) vs. Indiana Fever
Washington Mystics +7.5 (-115) vs. Atlanta Dream
Paige Bueckers 18+ Points (-167)

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-155) vs. Indiana Fever

The Aces have moved all the way down to just 3.5-point favorites in Game 1, but I think they’re the better team in this matchup.

Not only does Las Vegas have a championship pedigree (three titles in the last four seasons), but it was dominant when favored at home, going 12-9 against the spread with an average scoring margin of plus-9.0.

The Fever did beat the Aces twice this season, but Indy was just 13-9 straight up on the road this season. I’d expect this series to go the distance, which could lead to these teams splitting the first two games at their respective home arenas.

The Aces have a better net rating and defensive rating than the Fever this season, and these teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in offense. I will gladly take this moneyline price for A’ja Wilson and Co. to continue their playoff dominance.

Washington Mystics +7.5 (-115) vs. Atlanta Dream

Washington is one of the hottest teams in the league heading into the playoffs, winning eight of its last 10 games to jump into the No. 5 spot in the standings.

The Mystics have the No. 2 defensive rating in the league, and while the Dream are a top-four team in net rating, offensive rating and defensive rating, they are not the best shooting team.

That could be an issue against a tough defense, and the Mystics actually went 2-1 against the Dream during the regular season.

While Washington is a pretty major underdog (three possessions) in Game 1, I think it’s in a great spot to cover.

Atlanta went just 7-13 against the spread when favored at home in the regular season while Washington covered in eight of 13 games as a road underdog. This is a pretty sizable spread considering the fact that Washington won both games these teams played post-July 1, allowing 74 and 76 points in those matchups.

I don’t know if the Mystics will be able to pull off the upset, but I’ll gladly take the points on Sunday.

Paige Bueckers 18+ Points (-167)

Wings guard Paige Bueckers finished the regular season averaging 20.9 points per game while shooting 51.2 percent from the field and 41.0 percent from 3.

The former No. 1 overall pick is being asked to handle a massive workload with Azzi Fudd out for the season, scoring 18 or more points in 10 of her last 12 games and all four games since the 2026 FIBA World Cup break.

Against the Valkyries, Bueckers has 21, 17 and 15 points this season, but she had 21 in her last matchup against them. I expect a heavy workload for the star guard, especially since the Wings are underdogs to advance. They may play Bueckers, Jessica Shepard and Arike Ogunbowale most of the game on Saturday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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