Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury vs. Lynx, Dearica Hamby in Sparks-Dream)

The 2026 WNBA All-Star break is less than 10 days away, and Monday’s action kicks off the final full week of action before each of these teams gets some much-deserved rest for the stretch run.

After some awful showings in my Peter’s Points column to start July, we’ve rebounded nicely to go back up 3.5 units for the season.

I’m eyeing two picks for a two-game slate on July 13, with the Atlanta Dream hosting the Los Angeles Sparks and the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Phoenix Mercury. Minnesota is a 12.5-point favorite at home in the second matchup of the night as it looks to improve upon an impressive 17-6 start.

Meanwhile, the Dream are favored against a Sparks team that is one game under .500 and playing better as of late even with Kelsey Plum (leg) sidelined.

For tonight’s action, I have one spread and a player prop for Los Angeles forward Dearica Hamby, who may be overvalued a bit against one of the best rebounding teams in the league.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 58-44 (+3.50 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 233-207-2 (+6.40 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dearica Hamby UNDER 8.5 Rebounds (-138)
Minnesota Lynx -12.5 (-108) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Dearica Hamby UNDER 8.5 Rebounds (-138)

This season, Hamby is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game which is down from her last two seasons with the Sparks where she averaged 9.2 (2024) and 7.9 (2025) boards per night.

The three-time All-Star is still having a solid 2026 season, but the addition of Nneka Ogwumike has certainly limited her effectiveness on the glass. Hamby has eight or fewer boards in 13 of her 21 games this season, and she has a tough matchup against this Dream squad.

Atlanta employs All-Star Angel Reese, who is one of the best rebounders in the league. But it’s not just Reese that gets it done on the glass for the Dream.

Atlanta ranks No. 2 in the league in rebound percentage (52.3 percent), and it is No. 1 in opponent rebounds per game. That puts Hamby in a tough spot to clear her season average and grab nine or more boards on Monday night.

Even if she has a good game, Hamby is likely to fall short of this line for the fourth time in her last five games.

Minnesota Lynx -12.5 (-108) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix is 0-2 against the Lynx this season, losing by four back in May and 34 in the last meeting between these teams.

The Mercury are coming off an embarrassing 48-point loss at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday, dropping them to 8-16 in the 2026 season.

Simply put, this Phoenix team looks nothing like the one that made the WNBA Finals in the 2026 season. The Mercury rank in the bottom five in the W in both offensive and defensive rating, and they’re now 11th in net rating (minus-4.9) after the loss to Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, the Lynx are 17-6 despite a major injury to Napheesa Collier and have a league-best plus-10.8 net rating. Minnesota is only 5-4 against the spread when favored at home this season, but it remains a league-best 16-7 against the spread overall.

I simply cannot trust the Mercury against the top teams in the league, and they’re on a three-game skid after winning four out of five in late June/early July.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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