WNBA MVP Odds: How Every Candidate Stacks Up Ahead of A'ja Wilson vs. Caitlin Clark Showdown

The WNBA MVP race could flip a little in the coming weeks as the top seeds shake out, and Thursday is a marquee day for several players battling for the top spot.

On Aug. 6, four of the top five MVP candidates are in action, making this a perfect time to examine this market – and the latest movement – as we inch closer to the home stretch of the regular season.

Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson remains the clear favorite to win her fifth MVP (and third in a row), but Minnesota Lynx guard Olivia Miles and Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark are both climbing in the latest odds.

Plus, Kelsey Mitchell (+10000) may be the most disrespected player in the odds, though it seems unlikely that she’ll surpass her teammate Clark in the odds to win this award.

With the Fever and Aces set to square off on Thursday, here’s the case for each of the top six candidates to win MVP at this point in the 2026 season.

WNBA MVP Odds for 2026 Season

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

A'ja Wilson: -500
Olivia Miles: +700
Caitlin Clark: +1400
Paige Bueckers: +2000
Kelsey Mitchell: +10000
Breanna Stewart: +10000
Allisha Gray: +20000
Jackie Young: +25000
Aliyah Boston: +25000
Sabrina Ionescu: +25000
Angel Reese: +25000
Gabby Williams: +25000
Jessica Shepard: +25000

A’ja Wilson

Wilson has actually gained ground in the MVP race over the last week, going from -360 back on July 29 all the way to -500.

The four-time league MVP leads this top group in win shares (6.6) in the 2026 season and is having yet another crazy statistical year on both ends of the floor. Wilson is averaging 26.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.0 blocks per game while shooting 53.7 percent from the field and 44.6 percent from 3.

Wilson is only taking 2.3 3-pointers per game, but the fact that she’s become a plus shooter from beyond the arc makes her virtually unstoppable on the offensive end.

I believe the Aces star will win this award even if the team falls in the standings, but Las Vegas (No. 2 in the league) needs to finish the regular season strong to hold off momentum for Miles and Clark.

Miles is on the No. 1-seeded Lynx and is having a magnificent rookie season while Clark and the Fever are just two games back of the Aces and currently are 2-0 against them this season. Thursday’s matchup (on national television) could sway some of the sentiment in the MVP race for either Clark or Wilson.

Ultimately, if the Aces secure a top-three seed, I’d be very surprised if the three-time champion isn’t crowned the league’s MVP.

Olivia Miles

Miles (+700) has jumped Paige Bueckers for the No. 2 spot in the MVP odds, and for good reason. The rookie guard has led the Lynx to a 25-6 record even though Napheesa Collier has appeared in just four games in the 2026 campaign.

On top of that, Miles is putting up one of the best rookie seasons in league history, averaging 19.7 points, 4.7 rebounds. 5.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 50.2 percent from the field and 38.0 percent from 3.

Miles’ scoring has really come on since the start of June, as she’s averaging 21.3 points and shooting 43.3 percent from 3 across 21 games.

The argument for Miles is simple. Her team is by far the best in the league (record wise) and has done it without an All-WNBA player in Collier. Plus, the rookie has accumulated 4.8 wins shares, more than Clark, Bueckers and Mitchell, in the 2026 season.

If the Aces fall back in the standings, I think there’s a real case for Miles, especially if Minnesota gets the No. 1 seed by a rather wide margin.

Caitlin Clark

Caitlin Clark has bounced back in a big way from her injury-riddled 2025 season, averaging 21.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from 3.

Clark does it all for the Fever on offense, and it’s not a surprise that they have the best offensive rating in the WNBA with her and Mitchell leading the way. Clark has certainly played herself into the MVP conversation in recent weeks, posting a 45-point, 10-assist game in a win over Seattle and averaging 27.7 points and 9.2 assists per game over her last six contests.

The Fever are in the mix for a top-three seed in the league, but Clark’s win shares (3.2) pale in comparison to Miles (4.8), Mitchell (4.6) and Bueckers (4.4) in the 2026 season. Part of that is due to her missing a few games with injuries, but there’s an argument that on many nights Clark isn’t even the best player on her own team.

If the Fever end up finishing ahead of Las Vegas in the standings, Clark should get more love in this market. But, she’s actually fallen in the odds (+1300 to +1400) over the last week despite passing Bueckers in this race.

Paige Bueckers

A recent skid by the Dallas Wings has dropped them to sixth in the standings, and it has taken Bueckers’ MVP case down in the process.

The Wings star is now fourth in the odds at +2000, and she seems like a long shot to overtake Wilson or Miles given the records of their respective teams.

Still, I don’t want to take away from the awesome season that the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft is having. Bueckers is averaging 20.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game and is extremely efficient from the field (50.6 percent) and from 3 (39.1 percent).

Dallas going from the worst team in the league in 2025 to a likely playoff team is a huge feather in Bueckers’ cap, but I don’t think it’ll be enough for her to win MVP, barring a late-season winning streak.

Kelsey Mitchell

Mitchell is outside the top group in the odds to win MVP, but she has more win shares than Clark this season and is averaging 24.0 points per game while shooting 50.2 percent from the field and 43.8 percent from 3.

The biggest knock on Mitchell is that she doesn’t contribute much elsewhere (1.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steal per game), but a lot of that is due to her role. She’s tasked with scoring the ball night in and night out – especially when playing alongside Clark – and she’s one of the best pure scorers in the league.

I wouldn’t take Mitchell to win MVP, but I think she is a little further down in the odds than she should be, even if she stayed as the No. 5 candidate.

Breanna Stewart

Breanna Stewart’s 2026 season for the New York Liberty has been slept on a little since the team is seventh in the standings, but a three-game winning streak has put New York just three games out of the No. 2 seed.

Stewie is a two-time league MVP, and she has more win shares (5.1) than Miles, Clark, Bueckers and Mitchell in the 2026 season. The star forward is averaging 21.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assist, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks per game.

While her 3-point shot hasn’t come around this season (27.1 percent), Stewart is still shooting a solid 47.6 percent from the field.

It would take a crazy finish to the season from the Liberty for Stewart to win MVP, but her entire body of work as a two-way star is pretty impressive.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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