World Cup Best Bets Today (Predictions for Argentina-Austria, Norway-Senegal, and More)

We're officially in the final stretch of the second round of the Group Stage at the 2026 World Cup. Today's four matches will be the penultimate day of the second round, with final round action beginning on Wednesday.

Let's dive into my best bets for today's matches.

Best World Cup Bets Today for June 22

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Argentina vs. Austria UNDER 2.5 (-120)
France -2.5 (-125) vs. Iraq
Norway +126 vs. Senegal
Algeria -1.5 (+150) vs. Jordan

Argentina vs. Austria Prediction

Argentina may have dominated Algeria on the scoresheet thanks to some Lionel Messi magic, but you might be surprised to find out they had only 0.23 expected goals. With that being said, they put on a defensive masterclass, allowing -0.22 expected goals in that match.

On the other side of the pitch, I'm going to fade the Austrian offense that I had expected to come out aggressive in this tournament. The Austrians had only 0.39 expected goals against a far inferior Jordan team. The Argentinian defense is going to shut this offense down unless Austria makes some significant offensive adjustments.

Barring more eye-popping goals from Messi, I think this match is going to be more low-scoring and defensive-focused than people expect.

Pick: UNDER 2.5 (-120)

France vs. Iraq Prediction

Iraq was steamrolled by Norway in its first game, losing by a score of 4-1, and now they face a team that's even more lethal and deep in France. I feel comfortable betting on France to win by at least three goals, and one of the main reasons is Iraq's inability to create offensive chances.

Iraq had -0.04 expected goals against Norway, a team that was supposed to be subpar defensively. If they couldn't create any offense against the Norwegians, they certainly aren't going to be able to do it against the French.

Pick: France -2.5 (-125)

Norway vs. Senegal Prediction

I don't know if there's a team outside of the upper echelon of countries that's going to be able to slow down this Norway offensive attack. You have to take their expected goals with a grain of salt. Sure, they had just 0.39 expected goals against Iraq, but Erling Haaland is such an elite finisher that he's going to capitalize on the large majority of his scoring chances. Norway's defense also looked better than expected in its first match.

Meanwhile, Senegal's offensive performance was putrid. They had -0.27 expected goals against France, the second-worst amongst all teams in the opening round. The offensive advantage Norway has in this match is enough for me to bet on them at +126 on the three-way moneyline.

Pick: Norway +126

Jordan vs. Algeria Prediction

Algeria played the defending champions much tougher than the final score would indicate, having an expected goal differential of -0.45. Now, they get to go from playing against the best team in the group to the worst. Jordan didn't look particularly impressive on either side of the pitch against a subpar Austria team.

I'm going to trust my pre-tournament evaluation of this Algeria team, which I believe is being undervalued in the betting market.

Pick: Algeria -1.5 (+150)

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