World Cup Best Bets Today (Predictions for Ivory Coast-Norway, France-Sweden, and Mexico-Ecuador)

Ivory Coast is an underdog against Norway on Tuesday. | James Lang-Imagn Images

Four teams have punched their tickets to the Round of 16 at the World Cup, and there are still 12 spots available as we enter the third day of knockout stage action.

Let's dive into my bets bets for today's trio of win-or-go-home games.

World Cup Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Ivory Coast to Qualify vs. Norway (+140)
• France -1.5 (-138) vs. Sweden
• Ecuador to Qualify vs. Mexico (+146)

Ivory Coast vs. Norway Best Bet

Don't let the fact that Norway has Erling Haaland make you think that they're a better team than they are. Norway has an expected goal differential of -0.26 per 90 minutes played. There is no doubt they can create offense, but their defense has plenty of issues. Now, they take on an Ivory Coast team with similar numbers, an expected goal differential of -0.17 per 90 minutes played.

In my opinion, the result of this game should be closer to 50-50. I'll take a chance on the Ivory Coast at +140.

Pick: Ivory Coast to Advance (+140)

France vs. Sweden Best Bet

France is part of the select few teams in this tournament that are head and shoulders above the rest of the competition, and I'd make the argument that Sweden belongs in, at best, the third tier of teams. The Swedes have a defensive problem, sporting an expected goals against per 90 minutes of 1.09. That's bad news against a French attacking front that features Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. I'm going to bet on France proving that they're the team to beat in this tournament with a dominant win against an inferior team.

Pick: France -1.5 (-138)

Mexico vs. Ecuador Best Bet

Let's remember that Mexico benefited from playing in arguably the weakest group in the World Cup. Wins against the likes of South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa don't do enough to move the needle for me, especially when you consider their subpar expected goals numbers in those matches. Mexico finished the group stage with an expected goal differential of just +0.35 per 90 minutes of play. Now, they face their toughest match yet in Ecuador.

Ecuador finished the group stage with an expected goal differential per 90 minutes of +0.53, while having to play against teams like Germany and the Ivory Coast.

I love Ecuador at plus-money to advance to the Round of 16.

Pick: Ecuador to Advance (+146)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!