World Cup Best Bets Today (Predictions for Japan-Sweden, Turkiye-United States and More)

The good news is we now have six World Cup matches to watch and bet on until Sunday, but the bad news is it can be trickier to find value spots with the final matches of the group stage meaning different things for different teams.

In this article, I'm going to break down three bets I like for Thursday's slate of games. Let's dive into them.

World Cup Best Bets Today

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Ecuador +0.5 (-106) vs. Germany
Japan -117 vs. Sweden
Turkiye +250 vs. United States

Ecuador vs. Germany Best Bet

Ecuador is going to need to find a result against Germany to have any hope of advancing to the knockout stage. They've underperformed so far in this tournament compared to their underlying numbers. They have an actual goal differential of -1, but an expected goal differential of +0.98. Shockingly, they haven't found the back of the net, considering they have the fourth-highest expected goals mark at +2.31.

Germany has little to play for, considering they've already won the group, so Ecuador should be able to do enough to squeak out a draw at least.

Pick: Ecuador +0.5 (-106)

Japan vs. Sweden Best Bet

I'm selling my Sweden stock ahead of this match. The Swedes might've had a big win against Tunisia, but they were exposed against the Netherlands, especially on defense. They have an expected goals against of 1.16, and now they have to face a disciplined Japanese team that has one of the best expected goals against numbers in the tournament at 0.4.

Japan is going to struggle against the elite teams in this tournament, but their style of soccer can expose a lesser team's weaknesses. I'd be surprised if they don't get the win in this match, which is important for both teams.

Pick: Japan -117

Turkiye vs. United State Best Bet

This is the ultimate sell-high, buy-low spot. Turkiye has had a disappointing tournament, but you might be surprised to learn they're second in expected goal differential at +2.31, behind only Spain (+2.41). This is a team that has played well but has struggled to find the back of the net. Eventually, water is going to find its level, and while this game is largely meaningless for both teams, I expect Turkiye to want to come out firing to prove it's better than its record.

The United States, despite playing two inferior teams and impressively winning both matches in terms of the final score, has an expected goal differential of just +0.88. It's time to sell some stock in the USMNT.

Pick: Turkiye +250

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