World Cup Best Bets Today (Predictions for Spain-Portugal and United States-Belgium)

Four spots in the World Cup's quarterfinals have been claimed, but four remain when today's action kicks off. Spain and Portugal will meet in the first match of the day, and then the United States will try to advance past the Round of 16 for the first time since 2002 when they take on Belgium.

Let's dive into my best bet for each match.

World Cup Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spain -115 (3-Way Moneyline) vs. Portugal
Belgium to Advance (-116) vs. USA

Spain vs. Portugal Best Bet

I can't help but feel like Spain has somehow become underrated after entering the tournament as the betting favorites to win it all. Ahead of the Round of 16, Spain leads all teams in expected goal differential per 90 minutes at +1.76. What's most impressive about their metrics is that they have allowed just 0.54 expected goals against per 90 minutes, by far the best number amongst all teams.

Portugal's numbers haven't been nearly as impressive, sporting an expected goal differential per 90 minutes of +0.11. Cristiano Ronaldo, if we're being honest, has hurt his team more than he has helped them by demanding to be the centerpiece despite clearly not being the player he once was. That'll still work against inferior opponents, but it's going to come back to haunt them against Spain.

Pick: Spain -115 (3-Way Moneyline)

Belgium vs. United States Best Bet

The United States has a real problem in this game. Belgium's offense has been spectacular in this tournament with an expected goals for of 2.43, the second-best mark amongst all teams. The United States won't be able to contain them; their best hope is to match them. The Americans will need someone to step up offensively while also keeping the Belgian offense at bay.

Belgium has the better underlying numbers while also facing superior competition compared to the United States. They should be bigger favorites to advance, so I'll back them at -116.

Pick: Belgium to Advance (-116)

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