World Cup Bettors Roundtable: Picks, Futures, Predictions and Best Bets

Big-time sports events like the Super Bowl, March Madness, and the NBA Finals come around every year, but the World Cup, the greatest competition in the globe's most popular sport, only comes every four years.

That's one of the many things that make this tournament. This time around, it's set to be hosted in North America, so for my fellow North Americans reading this, it's going to be an extra special event.

If you're going to watch the top 48 soccer countries in the world go at it over the next five weeks, you might as well place a couple of dollars on a few bets to make it even more exciting to follow. In this article, three members of the SI Betting team and two writers from SI FC are going to answer a few questions to help guide you in the right direction.

World Cup Bettors Roundtable Writers

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting
Peter Dewey, SI Betting
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting
Dan Willis, SI FC
Toby Cudworth, SI FC

Let’s start with the defending champions. Lionel Messi is back to compete in one more World Cup, but Argentina is tied for fifth on the odds list to successfully defend their title. Do they represent good betting value at +1000, or is Argentina past its peak?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: The benefit to Lionel Messi at his age, compared to a player like Cristiano Ronaldo, is that Messi is perfectly happy playing a supporting role and stepping up when asked to in certain situations, instead of demanding to be the focal point of a team's strategies. That's going to go a long way in Argentina's chances of making another deep run. With that being said, I'm a firm believer that in most tournaments, no matter the sport, the defending champion is always going to be overvalued in the betting market. Argentina in this year's World Cup is no different.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: Over its last 10 matches, Argentina is 8-1-1, allowing just three goals during that stretch. In those 10 games, their expected goals against is just 0.78 per game, which is one of the best marks of any team heading into the World Cup. Messi is still one of the best players in the world, even at his age, but it is worth noting that he has been nursing a hamstring injury ahead of the tournament and could be limited in the Group Stage. I don’t mind trusting in his greatness to help Argentina make another deep run.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Argentina’s two best players, Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, play in the MLS. I’m not sure that matters, but I found it…telling. Surely, Argentina will get out of a weak group. I just don’t think their price is overvalued based on Messi.

Dan Willis, SI FC: Sure, Messi doesn’t run around as much as he used to. But his mere presence lifts everyone around him. He’s like the conductor of the orchestra. Plus, his luster somewhat underplays the amount of talent packed around him in this Argentina team. A team that arrives with tournament-winning nous, it’s worth pointing out. And the continuity of a level-headed manager who’s been there and done it. Argentina may not be quite the team of 2021, but they’re in with a good shout.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: History will tell you that overlooking Argentina is a fool’s game, even if it is heading into the World Cup looking to be the first country to defend the title since Brazil 56 years ago. Messi’s past his peak, yes, but he is still one of the standout players in the world, built to perform on the big stage. Injury issues may hamper his ability to make an impact early on, but make no mistake about it: he’s ready to roll.

North America is the host of this year’s World Cup, which means Mexico, Canada, and the United States will play all of their group stage matches on home soil. Should we consider home-field advantage when betting on their matches? Is there one country whose home-field advantage will be more impactful than the others?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Not only does Mexico have the most passionate fans of the three host countries, but let's not forget that two of their three games in the Group Stage will take place in Mexico City, which is 7,200 feet above sea level. That's some serious elevation that their opponents may not be used to playing at.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: I personally wouldn’t put too much stock into the idea of home-field advantage when it comes to these three teams, as they’re all set at +6000 or longer to win the World Cup. In fact, only Mexico is favored (-115) to be in the final 16 teams remaining in the tournament. If anyone, I’d give them a slight edge with home-field, but I don’t think it’ll be a massive factor since these aren’t the most talented teams in the tournament.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: American fans are fickle, and I fear expectations aren’t aligned with reality when it comes to the U.S. team. They also get a tough test to start with a defensive-minded Paraguay team that could frustrate fans (and the team alike). Canada has likely the easiest group of the three home teams and I could see their loyal fanbase lifting them up. Mexico’s fans can be (how can I say this politely?) unruly, which could be a good or bad thing. Things should start fine with an easy match against South Africa. But those second two games could go either way.

Dan Willis, SI FC: Home advantage traditionally does lift some World Cup hosts (South Korea in 2002, Germany in 2006, Russia in 2018) apart from the real minnows (South Africa in 2010, Qatar in 2022). Hopefully, USMNT, Mexico, and Canada will be the former. Mexico’s relationship with its fans is complicated, so the advantage could become a disadvantage if results don’t start well. USMNT is under the most pressure of all hosts to perform due to high expectations, and that could hamper it. So, perhaps Canada will get the biggest lift of all three hosts from home support.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: Home advantage absolutely plays a part in the group stages. Fans are raucous in the stands, the players believe in their own ability, and often, performance levels are elevated. When it’s knockout round time, things take a bit of a turn as tension and pressure to continue performing kick in. That’s what could be the USMNT’s downfall and potentially Mexico’s, whereas Canada has a bit of a free shot at this World Cup. It has never won a game, and with a good-looking roster, it could benefit from the buzz and noise in Vancouver and Toronto.

England is desperate for its first World Cup win since 1966, but it's failed to get over the hump and has fallen short in big matches. This year, they’re third on the odds list at +650. Is this their best chance to pull it off compared to recent history? Do they have the team to do it?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Does England have the talent to beat the best teams in the world? Yes, but whether or not they'll actually do it is another question. With every passing World Cup and European Championship, the pressure on this team continues to mount. As a fan of several teams who continuously choke in big moments with history weighing on their shoulders, I've witnessed it firsthand. It's not a question about whether or not England will suffer a loss in the most heartbreaking fashion this tournament, it's a matter of when.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: England received a pretty solid draw, as it should avoid both Spain and France until later on in the tournament, and it has the third-best odds (+140) to reach the semifinals. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are two of the best players in the world, and England should roll in Group L against Ghana, Croatia and Panama. The team is talented enough to win it all, though I understand not loving the price since it’s been so long since England took home the World Cup.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: It’s (not) coming home. The weight of the world is always on this team’s shoulders when they play. You can feel it from thousands of miles away. The play reflects it. They couldn’t get it done twice in the last two Euro’s, and they haven’t gotten past the semis in the World Cup since winning it all in 1966. A talented squad with a great mix of young talent, established stars, and grizzled veterans. But they can’t play free when it matters most, and that will spell doom at some point in the knockout stage.

Dan Willis, SI FC: This is England’s first major tournament under manager Thomas Tuchel after an impressive run under Sir Gareth Southgate (one World Cup semifinal, one quarterfinal and two Euros finals), so it’s hard to know what to expect. This is also Tuchel’s first run at being an international manager after a successful club management career to date. England’s qualification campaign was flawless, and Tuchel has refreshingly stated his desire to pick the best team rather than the best XI players, so there is optimism in England. Can they win it? Yes. Will they? I don’t think so. The weight of expectation is so great. It’s almost impossible for the players to rise above it.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: England has one of the most talented rosters at the World Cup, of that there is no doubt. It also has a world-class manager in Thomas Tuchel. The trouble is, France is also stacked with talent, as is Spain. Those two European behemoths should have the destiny of the World Cup in their hands, regardless of how well England might play. Add 60 years of pain and relentless expectation to the mix, and only one outcome looks likely.

Kylian Mbappé won the Golden Boot in 2022, notching eight goals. He’s the betting favorite to win it again this year at +600. Should we just bet on him to run it back for France?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: The Golden Boot is where I like to have some fun. Sure, the top names like Mbappe and Harry Kane are favorites for good reason, but I think there's some very real value down the board. I'm looking at Luis Diaz of Colombia at 75-1. He scored 26 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this season, and the 29-year-old already has a Golden Boot in an international competition on his resume. He shared the Golden Boot alongside Lionel Messi at the 2021 Copa America. Colombia will have to go on a deep run for him to have a chance, but if you're like me and you want to pass on the top options for some value further down the board, Diaz could be your guy.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: There’s certainly a strong case for Mbappe, though it’s hard to discount Harry Kane, who just scored 61 goals in a season for Bayern Munich. Mbappe won the Golden Boot without winning the tournament in 2022, and it’s possible he does that again even if Spain, England or a dark horse end up taking home the trophy in 2026. Mbappe has 12 goals in his last two World Cup runs, so it’s hard to make a case to bet against him in 2026.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Yes, is the easy answer. France has made the World Cup finals the last two times. Mbappe's hat trick in the 2022 final against Argentina was magical. They should thump Senegal’s and Iraq’s defense to start before a more formidable challenge against Norway. Regardless, Mbappe should head into the group stage with a couple of goals, which positions him well for a run at the Golden Boot.

Dan Willis, SI FC: Only a fool wouldn’t consider Mbappé or Harry Kane as the top scorer, but this award also heavily relies on that player’s team to stay in the tournament until the semifinals. Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal is interesting (he was its joint top scorer in qualifying with six goals) and if Norway can stay in the competition until the quarterfinals then there’s a certain Erling Haaland to consider (small matter of 16 goals in qualifying). If Messi needed any extra incentive, he’ll become the outright top scorer in World Cup history with four goals in this tournament.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: The short answer is yes, pile in on Mbappé. When you’re being fed chances by the likes of Olise, Dembélé, Doué, Cherki and more, how can you look past the ultimate World Cup striker? He’s going to become the highest goalscorer in World Cup history in the future, why not get going down that road with back-to-back Golden Boot wins.

The consensus for this year’s “Group of Death” is Group I, featuring France, Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. Do you agree with that opinion, and if so, do you view Norway (+290), Senegal (+800), and Iraq (+7500) as a legitimate threat to win the group over France (-230)?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: From top to bottom, I think it'd be hard to consider any other group as strong as Group I. If France falters whatsoever in any of their three matches in this group, keep an eye on Norway stealing the top bid from them. This team is more than just Erling Haaland, and they can rack up goals in a hurry. If you want to zig instead of zag in this group, I think the Norwegians are worth a look at +290.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: I do agree with the sentiment that this is the “Group of Death,” especially since Senegal has gone 8-1-1 in its last 10 international matches, outscoring opponents 20-6 during that stretch. Norway also has one of the best players in the tournament in Erling Haaland, who should be in the mix to win the Golden Boot. I still think France will end up winning this group, but I don’t mind taking a shot on Senegal at +800 if you believe in an upset.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Yes. There’s no other group with such a top-heavy favorite and two other teams that could make legit runs to the final eight (or somewhere thereafter). I would argue Group F is similar in terms of depth (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia), though no one in that group is as scary as France. Ironically enough, the worst group is the USA’s Group D. I don’t see anyone from that group making it far in the knockout stage.

Dan Willis, SI FC: Yes, Group I is definitely the most stacked and the one I’m most interested in watching. And while Norway and Senegal could trouble France, I still expect France to top the group. The sheer depth of quality in that roster is above every other team in the tournament.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: It’s always exciting when a nation that isn’t from the established elite blitzes through qualifying unbeaten. It’s so rare for it to happen that you can’t help but get a little bit giddy. Objectively, that does make Group I this World Cup’s group of death, but perhaps expectations of Norway need to be tempered a little bit. They hammered Italy in qualifying, sure, but the Azzurri are not any kind of force these days—12 years without appearing at a World Cup is evidence of that. Don’t be surprised if France win the group comfortably, Senegal take second, and Norway limp through in third.

Many people believe that Uruguay’s win in 1950 or West Germany’s win in 1954 is the biggest upset winner in World Cup history. More recently, Croatia’s pre-tournament odds in 2018 were set at 33-1 before falling one match short, losing to France in the final. If you had to make a case for a country at 50-1 odds or longer to win this year’s World Cup, which are you choosing and why?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I'm going to make the case for Ecuador, whose odds sit at 100-1 to win the World Cup. Ecuador is one of the best defensive teams in the entire World Cup. They allowed just five total goals in 18 combined World Cup qualifying games, and they haven't lost a match since a 1-0 decision to Brazil in September of 2024. If they get to the knockout stage, they can drag better teams to penalties, and as we all know, anything can happen with penalty kicks.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: Ecuador at +10000. If we’re picking a dark horse, why not go all the way down the board for an 100/1 pick? Ecuador is 7-1-11 under Sebastian Beccacece, with the only loss coming in a 1-0 match against Brazil. The team is loaded with young talent in players like Moises Caicedo (of Chelsea), Willian Pacho (Paris Saint-Germain) and Piero Hincapie (Arsenal), and it’s possible that they could surprise some people at the World Cup. Ecuador has given up just five goals over its last 10 matches, and it has one of the best defensive groups in the tournament. The question will be whether it scores enough to advance in the knockout stages. However, it finished second in the South American qualifying round robin and +140 to be one of the final 16 teams left in the tournament. If the defense holds up, Ecuador could surprise a ton of people in Group E.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: While we’ve seen surprise teams make deep runs in this tournament, like Morocco in 2022 and Croatia in 2018, they rarely win it. +5000 is a massive number in such a top-heavy tournament. I would simply be happy if my +5000 bet made it to the knockout stage. So really, I start there. Switzerland is the best team in Group B and should win it. At +6500, I’m happy if they do advance. From there, it wouldn’t face a fellow Group winner (and presumably its toughest opponent of the tournament thus far) until the Round of 16. After that, it’s a crapshoot. But if a 50/1 ticket makes it that far, that’s all you can ask.

Dan Willis, SI FC: Firstly, I can’t see a team outside 50-1 troubling the latter stages of this tournament. If I really had to put my neck on the line, I would look to Morocco or the USMNT. Now Morocco isn’t the team it was in Qatar when it reached the semifinals, and the U.S. needs so many elements to work brilliantly for the first time and all at once to make a serious dent here. But the U.S. winning it would make a great story, wouldn’t it? And surely would be the biggest shock in World Cup history.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: It will be a miracle if a rank outsider wins the World Cup this summer, but if you had to stick your neck out and back a team with long odds, then you can’t look past Switzerland or Croatia. The former should walk through Group B at a canter, and that will boost confidence, while you can never discount the latter because of what they’ve achieved before. Luka Modrić is still making things tick, and although the makeup of the midfield has changed around him, he just makes everyone better.

Finally, it’s time to make your pick. Who is going to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: France at +500. I think we'll see some fun Cinderella stories make a run, but at the end of the day, France is too talented and too deep and will overwhelm whoever they face in the final.

Peter Dewey, SI Betting: Spain (+450).

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Portugal at +850. Can Ronaldo match Messi with a World Cup title? Portugal is certainly talented enough. Bruno Fernandes was a maestro for Manchester United this season and will surely orchestrate this offense as well. Bernardo Silva is a proven winner with Manchester City, and there’s lots of young talent around them. What a story this would be.

Dan Willis, SI FC: France at +500. Experience, tournament know-how, quality, individual brilliance, emerging talent, goals from multiple sources. My only reservations are if Didier Deschamps starts being overly cautious or overconfident.

Toby Cudworth, SI FC: France (+550). If the results pan out the way I expect, France and Spain will be playing each other in the semifinals. The winner of that match, I expect, will go on to win the World Cup—Mbappé vs. Yamal, what more could we ask for?

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