Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, Sept. 20

The New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up a three-game set on Sunday afternoon, as Arizona looks to improve its chances of getting into the playoffs in the National League.

The D-Backs are four games out of the final wild card spot in the NL, putting them in a tough spot to make the playoffs with just over a week of regular-season action remaining.

On Sunday, right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the ball for the third time in the 2026 season for the D-Backs as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Burnes and the D-Backs are favored at home after they took down New York on Saturday.

Will Warren (3.89 ERA) is on the bump for the Yanks, who clinched a playoff spot but lost Aaron Judge (calf) in the process. There’s a chance Judge returns for the postseason, but the Yankees could take a hit in the futures market if he doesn’t.

This is a huge matchup for both teams, as the Yanks are still trying to lock up the top wild card spot in the AL, though they have a 5.5-game lead over Boston.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for his series finale on Sunday.

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Yankees -1.5 (+163)
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-199)

Moneyline

Yankees: -101
Diamondbacks: -119

Total

8.5 (Over -105/Under -114)

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

New York: Will Warren (10-6, 3.89 ERA)
Arizona: Corbin Burnes (0-0, 5.87 ERA)

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 20
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Field
How to Watch (TV): YES Network, DBACKS.TV
Yankees record: 89-65
Diamondbacks record: 81-74

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+516)

In today’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run props for SI Betting – I shared why Garcia Jr. is undervalued against the D-Backs and Burnes:

New York Yankees first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. has been slumping this week, but he’s still hitting .293 with four homers over the last four weeks.

Garcia has 27 home runs and a .290 batting average against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s fared pretty well against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Corbin Burnes in his career. Garcia is 2-for-10 with a home run against Burnes, and the D-Backs righty has allowed two long balls in two appearances this season in his return from Tommy John.

Even though he’s been slumping this week, Garcia is simply mispriced at this number (+516). It’s very rare to get a player with 30 home runs in a season at north of 5/1, and Garcia has shown with the Yankees and Washington Nationals that he’s a slugging percentage machine, posting a .534 mark in 2026.

Yankees vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Arizona picked up a much-needed win on Sunday, and it’s favored at home in this matchup.

Still, the D-Backs could be facing an uphill battle with Burnes on the mound, as he hasn’t looked particularly sharp since returning from the injured list. The right-hander has allowed two homers, seven hits and five runs in 7.2 innings pitched, putting a lot of pressure on the Arizona bullpen in his starts.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are 19-9 when Warren starts this season, and the right-hander has a sub-4.00 ERA. While Warren ranks in just the 34th percentile in expected ERA, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 23 of his starts.

That gives the Yankees a pretty solid floor when it comes to this matchup.

New York is 14 games over .500 on the road this season, and it has a far superior bullpen (No. 1 in bullpen ERA). With Burnes likely exiting this start pretty early, I think the Yankees are a great bet as an underdog on Sunday.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-101 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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