Yankees vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 14

The New York Yankees closed out a series with the New York Mets with a win behind Cam Schlittler, and they’re heavily favored on the road on Monday against the Minnesota Twins.

New York owns the top wild card spot in the American League, and it has a chance to chase down the Tampa Bay Rays atop the AL East with a strong finish to the regular season.

Will Warren (4.05 ERA) gets the ball for New York in this matchup, and he’ll look to build on his gem against the Colorado Rockies earlier this month, where he allowed just one run across six frames, striking out eight.

The Twins will counter with right-hander Dean Kremer (5.65 ERA), who has led the team to a 2-5 record in seven starts since being acquired at the deadline from Baltimore. Kremer has a 4.79 ERA over that stretch.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this AL showdown on Monday night.

Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Yankees -1.5 (+123)
Twins +1.5 (-148)

Moneyline

Yankees: -137
Twins: +113

Total

8.5 (Over -101/Under -119)

Yankees vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

New York: Will Warren (10-6, 4.05 ERA)
Minnesota: Dean Kremer (3-5, 5.65 ERA)

Yankees vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 14
Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): YES Network, Twins.TV
Yankees record: 86-63
Twins record: 70-79

Yankees vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+257)

Can Aaron Judge get himself on track ahead of the playoffs? He’s hitting just .176 through five games since returning from the injured list, but a favorable matchup on Monday makes him one of my favorite home run prop targets:

I’m buying Aaron Judge on Monday to break out of a mini slump since he returned from a rib injury earlier this month.

Judge has 17 home runs in 64 games this season, posting an .871 OPS despite his injury issues.

But, this pick really comes down to the pitching matchup more than anything.

Judge has dominated Kremer in his career, going 6-for-17 (.353) with four home runs, five runs batted in, three walks and a 1.535 OPS.

Kremer has struggled with the long ball in 2026, allowing 16 home runs in 14 starts while posting a 5.65 ERA. This is the perfect spot for Judge to get back on track as the Yankees look to make a push for the AL East crown.

Yankees vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Can New York pick up a win and gain some ground on Tampa Bay in the division?

The Yankees are one of the better road teams in MLB, going 44-31 this season, and they have several players with some success against Kremer from his days in Baltimore.

Warren has some pretty shaky advanced numbers, ranking in the 31st percentile in expected ERA, the 24th percentile in expected BAA and the fourth percentile in average exit velocity against.

However, the Yankees are 18-9 in his 27 starts, and they’ve been rolling as of late, winning seven of their last 10 games while improving their run differential to plus-125.

I prefer Warren to Kremer, who has an expected ERA in the 26th percentile while allowing four or more runs in seven of his 14 outings this season.

Since the Twins are outside of the playoff picture and down star Byron Buxton for the rest of the season, I’ll fade them against this playoff-bound Yankees team.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-137 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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