Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr.)

Playoff spots are up for grabs with less than two weeks left in the regular season, and an exciting 10-game slate is set for Monday night, featuring several teams in the wild card hunt.

So, why not bet on some of the top players in the game to make an impact for their squads?

Each day throughout the season, the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run picks – a fun way to get involved in the action with the potential of cashing a long shot bet.

On Monday, I’m eyeing New York Yankees star Aaron Judge to headline these home run props, as he’ll take on the Minnesota Twins and a familiar starting pitching in Dean Kremer. Judge has given Kremer a ton of problems in his career, and the reigning AL MVP is due to hit a homer after failing to do so in his first five games since returning from the injured list.

Plus, there are a couple more All-Star caliber players to consider, including San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been red hot over the last month.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of these home run picks on Sept. 14.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Sept. 14

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+423)

Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith missed a bunch of time this season with a neck injury, but he’s gotten hot as of late, hitting .286 with a home run over the last week (six games, four starts).

Smith takes on the Cincinnati Reds and lefty Nick Lodolo on Monday, a pitcher he’s had some success against in his career. Smith is 1-for-5 with a homer against Lodolo, and the Reds southpaw has given up 17 homers in 18 appearances this season.

Over his last four starts, Lodolo has allowed five homers and has a 7.50 ERA.

This sets up pretty well for Smith, as he looks to get himself in a groove ahead of the playoffs. The three-time All-Star has just seven homers in 54 starts this season, which has led to oddsmakers pricing him pretty fairly in this series opener.

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+434)

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has been limited to just 92 games in the 2026 season, but he’s still found a way to hit 20 home runs.

Lindor has gotten hot at the dish over the last week, homering four times in his six games while posting a .286 batting average and 1.069 OPS. He’s gone deep eight times in his last 24 games despite an under .200 average over that stretch.

So, if the five-time All-Star is starting to heat up overall at the plate, the homers should follow. Lindor also has a very favorable matchup with Baltimore’s Brandon Young on Monday.

Young has given up 20 home runs this season, including eight over his last five starts. He has a 5.33 ERA during that stretch with multiple games where he’s given up at least two long balls.

I don’t mind Lindor at this price, especially after he put together a big series against the Yankees over the weekend.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+257)

I’m buying Aaron Judge on Monday to break out of a mini slump since he returned from a rib injury earlier this month.

Judge has 17 home runs in 64 games this season, posting an .871 OPS despite his injury issues.

But, this pick really comes down to the pitching matchup more than anything.

Judge has dominated Kremer in his career, going 6-for-17 (.353) with four home runs, five runs batted in, three walks and a 1.535 OPS.

Kremer has struggled with the long ball in 2026, allowing 16 home runs in 14 starts while posting a 5.65 ERA. This is the perfect spot for Judge to get back on track as the Yankees look to make a push for the AL East crown.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+270)

Tatis Jr. has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, and he’s batting an insane .522 over the last week (six games).

Over the last four weeks (24 games), Tatis has eight home runs and a 1.010 OPS for a Padres team that holds the No. 3 wild card spot in the National League.

After a slow start from a power perspective this season, Tatis is now up to 21 home runs, an .817 OPS and has appeared in 147 games. He’s been as consistent as they come for San Diego.

I love Monday’s matchup for Tatis against the Colorado Rockies and Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 29 homers in 26 appearances this season, posting a 5.30 ERA. Sugano led the AL in home runs allowed in 2025, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark at Coors Field.

Tatis should stay hot on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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