March Madness: Four Teams With the Hardest Path to the Men’s Final Four

The bracket has been unleashed and, with it, March Madness has truly arrived in men’s college basketball.

Not every path to this year’s Final Four in Indianapolis is created equal however. Some teams got the benefit of the selection committee underseeding a program while others will be licking their chops to take advantage of a team who has a key player or two on the injury list. Some teams have to travel across the country a couple of times, while others get a regional in their backyard.

With that in mind, which men’s basketball team has the hardest path to cutting down the nets? After examining the bracket, these top seeds will certainly have to earn their way to the Circle City compared to others.

No. 5 Texas Tech, Midwest Region

The Red Raiders were already on the back foot with JT Toppin’s season-ending injury and that was only exacerbated by any potential path forward. Akron is a veteran side in the first round who will be a popular No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset pick, and both Alabama and Hofstra each have shooters and pace that could cause further issues in the round of 32. It would be an accomplishment to reach the Sweet 16 this year given the injury situation but also because top seed Michigan would be standing in their way with multiple starters who are capable of changing the game in an instant should they reach Chicago.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 7 Kentucky

Mark Pope has one of the most expensive rosters assembled in the tournament, but if he wants to over-index with the Wildcats, it won’t be a walk in the park. To start, No. 10 Santa Clara is not a team to take lightly in their first-round meeting with the way the Broncos can score and force turnovers. If they survive and advance, they’ll then take on a very dangerous No. 2 Iowa State squad that has designs on the Final Four and either Tennessee or Virginia that are matchup nightmares in the second weekend. Oh, and No. 1 seed Michigan has everything it needs to cut down the nets this year to block any potential trip to Indy.

No. 4 Arkansas, West Region

Be prepared for a few weeks of moaning on John Calipari’s behalf if the Razorbacks have an early exit because it won’t be easy to go on a run with this draw. To start with, they’ll have to make the long trip from Fayetteville, Ark., to Portland, Ore., in the first round and have to sort through a Big West champ in Hawai’i who won’t be an easy out with the way they play defense. Throw in the potential to run into the red-hot three-point shooters at Wisconsin just to make it to the second weekend and their reward would be to face off against Big 12 champions and a title favorite in Arizona. Finally, Big Ten tourney champ Purdue, WCC stalwart Gonzaga (with just three losses) or a wild card like BYU and AJ Dybantsa would be there at the end of the day in San Jose to throw up one last roadblock. Rough.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 9 Utah State

The Aggies are actually favored in their opening-round game against Villanova, but the Big East side won’t be an easy one to escape with the way it muddies up games with defense and an equally slow pace of play to the Mountain West champions. Awaiting after that is only the No. 1 seed Arizona—one of potentially four regular-season or tournament champions they would have to get through to reach Indy. At least the travel isn’t as rough as others in the West Region, if you’re looking for some silver lining.

No. 4 Nebraska, South Region

It’s been a dream season in so many ways for the Cornhuskers, but the committee didn’t exactly reward them with a path to go on in their first March Madness tourney run. Elusive victory No. 1 in the Big Dance won’t be a cakewalk as No. 13 Troy is a strong team for that seed line and has a veteran group under Scott Cross who knows what these games are like. Get past the Trojans and the criminally underseeded No. 5 Vanderbilt awaits to reach the second weekend, where they would probably call themselves lucky to face off against … the reigning national champion Florida. Oh, and a trip to the Final Four would likely require beating either fellow Big Ten team Illinois or Houston in Houston. Good luck Fred Hoiberg.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 6 North Carolina

If you think it’s getting warm for Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill, N.C., after a one-and-done in the ACC tournament, imagine what will transpire if it happens in Greenville, S.C., and the NCAA tourney? The Tar Heels have played improved defense as of late, but it might not matter if they can’t get any scoring with Caleb Wilson in a cast on the bench. VCU may have been one of the last teams in the field but will be extremely tricky as an 11-seed and then Illinois would await. Oh, and they’ll get the first crack at trying to top either Houston, Saint Mary’s or Texas A&M to survive and advance out of the Sweet 16. Not easy by any stretch.

No. 1 Duke, East Region

Somehow, being the No. 1 overall seed is supposed to come with the easiest path to Indianapolis, but that didn’t quite work out in practice for the Blue Devils. To start with, they’ve had a history in their sub-regional of subpar results and draw a tricky Siena team to open before facing off against what would be the strongest No. 8 vs. No. 9 pairing in either Ohio State or TCU. Then, unless there are some notable upsets, the road goes through at least one Hall of Fame coach in Bill Self or Rick Pitino to reach the Elite Eight. Oh, and there are fellow bluebloods like UConn, Michigan State, UCLA and even Louisville beyond that. Good luck to Jon Scheyer & Co. because a trip through the nation’s capital in this region is brutal.

Lower seed to keep an eye on: No. 4 Kansas

You could probably list off a half-dozen teams in this area of the bracket, but the Jayhawks have the potential No. 1 pick in the NBA draft and have Big East champion St. John’s to go through just to avoid an early exit. Then there’s Duke after that and, if they’re lucky, one of either Tom Izzo or Dan Hurley’s teams to get over just to make it to Indy.

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