Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: First Look at Projected March Madness Field

Welcome to a new season of Bracket Watch! The countdown to Selection Sunday is officially on. Over the next two months, Sports Illustrated will bring you regular updates of the projected men’s field with notes on the biggest risers and fallers, key games to watch and of course, tracking what bubble teams need to do to hear their name called on the third Sunday in March.

How does the field look in the season’s first update?

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Ohio State
Miami
NC State
UCLA

Last Four In

Texas
USC
Seton Hall
New Mexico

First Four Out

Missouri
George Mason
Virginia Tech
Indiana

Next Four Out

Butler
Santa Clara
Stanford
Baylor

It has been quite the last few days in the ACC, which projects to send a handful more teams dancing than it has the last two years. NC State’s candidacy looked solid until a Saturday loss to Georgia Tech, but the Wolfpack bounced back in a huge way with a road win at Clemson to put themselves back in the field. Meanwhile, Miami had plenty of momentum just a few days ago, but losing at home to a bad Florida State team takes wind from its sails. How many from the group of Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech and any potential wild cards (Stanford, perhaps?) can find their way in will be a key storyline to monitor.

Things look decent for now for mid-majors New Mexico and George Mason, though they’ll get fewer opportunities in conference play than their high-major counterparts. George Mason in particular has a tightrope to walk given its poor nonconference schedule and performance metrics, though its schedule is fairly manageable until the final few games of the regular season. The Patriots got knocked out of Wednesday’s projected field by key bubble wins for UCLA and NC State, but keep winning and they’ll leave the committee little choice.

* — Indicates projected automatic bid.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 Saint Peter’s*/Maryland Eastern Shore*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn
No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 12 Murray State*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 USC/New Mexico
No. 3 Gonzaga* vs. No. 14 Wright State*
No. 7 UCF vs. No. 10 Ohio State
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens*

No. 1 overall seed Arizona has built an incredible résumé with wins away from home in its nonconference slate over Florida, UConn and Alabama. That sets the Wildcats up for a favorable path to Indianapolis through San Diego and San Jose for the first two weekends of the Big Dance. The bigger question: How long can Arizona stay undefeated? Road trips to BYU (Jan. 26) and Kansas (Feb. 9) look like the next potential stumbling blocks.

Louisville has dropped fairly significantly since the calendar flipped to 2026, losing at Stanford and missing out on key opportunities for big wins against Duke and Virginia at home. Those results have come without star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. though, a fact that could influence the committee should the Cardinals turn it on once he returns. The good news? Unlike in recent years, the ACC should provide them with a good number of additional Quad 1 opportunities over the final six weeks of the regular season. Louisville has seven games currently in Quad 1 left on the schedule with a couple of others that could conceivably rise to that level.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman*/LIU*
No. 8 Saint Louis* vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 6 SMU vs. No. 11 Seton Hall/Texas
No. 3 Vanderbilt vs. No. 14 Winthrop*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Miami
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Portland State*

Iowa State lost consecutive road games last week at Kansas and Cincinnati, but few teams sport a better win than the Cyclones’ road win at Purdue in early December. The schedule over the next three weeks or so is manageable, but a gauntlet looms in late February with trips to BYU and Arizona and home tilts with Kansas and Houston all after Valentine’s Day.

While the narrative surrounding St. John’s season has been one of disappointment, it has seemingly turned the corner of late and its résumé has followed. Road wins at Villanova, Creighton and Butler in recent weeks have all landed in Quad 1, solidifying the Red Storm as a clear NCAA tournament team with a chance to compete for a protected seed in the coming weeks.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Colgate*
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Utah State
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Utah Valley*
No. 4 Florida* vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Troy*
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 UT Martin*

Florida added easily its best win of the year Saturday on the road at Vanderbilt, finally breaking through in a high-level game after close calls with Arizona, Duke and UConn earlier in the season. KenPom has the Gators favored in every game the rest of the way, so Todd Golden’s team has a real chance to go on a run and climb into top-two-seed contention.

Among the more fascinating emerging bubble storylines is the at-large potential for Miami (Ohio) should the RedHawks fail to win the MAC tournament. Miami cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time since 1999 this week and is off to a 20–0 start. Travis Steele’s team has played one of the worst schedules in the country though, meaning the margin for error is slim. For now, Miami benefits from a strong wins above bubble metric, but more than two regular-season losses would likely mean they’d have to win the MAC tournament.

South Region

No. 1 UConn* vs. No. 16 Vermont*
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Florida Atlantic*
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hawai’i*
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 San Diego State*
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Nebraska* vs. No. 15 North Dakota State*

Nebraska is an early example of a team whose résumé metrics dwarf its predictives. The Cornhuskers own a top-five résumé thanks to their road win at Illinois and four total Quad 1A wins, though they sit outside the top 10 in all three team sheet predictive metrics. Those could climb with better-than-expected performances in the coming weeks against Michigan, Illinois and Purdue though.

Tennessee still looks good despite losing three of its last five thanks to its monster neutral win over Houston that continues to age well. The Vols could eventually rue blowing a huge lead vs. Kentucky on Saturday though, especially with consecutive road tests at Alabama and Georgia on the docket next. Lose those two, and things might get uncomfortable in Knoxville.

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