Men’s March Madness Expert Predictions: Dark Horses, Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds, Title Winner

Ahead of the men’s NCAA tournament First Four games tipping off Tuesday night and our brackets locking in, Sports Illustrated writers Pat Forde, Kevin Sweeney and Bryan Fischer sit down to predict what we’ll see over the next three weeks of March Madness.

National Player of the Year

Pat Forde

A lot of players had great seasons that might have, in other years, been worthy of player of the year honors. But Duke’s Cameron Boozer walked away from the competition early and stayed there. He was the incredibly consistent star of the No. 1 team in the nation, giving Duke a second straight player of the year but doing it in a different way than Cooper Flagg. They both stuffed the stat sheet, but Flagg’s flair for the spectacular and obvious NBA upside is counterbalanced by Boozer’s incredible basketball IQ for a freshman. As the son of a college and NBA star, being a smart player isn’t terribly surprising—but watching Boozer outthink the competition as the hub of the Duke offense is still remarkable. And his feel for the game is matched by an intense will to win.

Kevin Sweeney

In retrospect, we shouldn’t be surprised that Boozer has done what he has in college. After all, it’s the same formula he put together in high school, AAU and with his national team: produce and win at elite levels. He’s college basketball’s clear MVP, contributing to winning in so many different ways and doing so with a no-nonsense approach. I thought coming into the season it’d be hard for Boozer to get out of Flagg’s shadow and that might hurt him in awards races. Instead, he has a real chance to leave a bigger legacy than Flagg.

Bryan Fischer

Kudos to Boozer for making this incredibly obvious and easy this season even amid a crowded field of future NBA draft lottery picks performing at a high level. The Duke star should be a unanimous pick among every selector and publication for national player of the year after turning in one of the great all-time performances for a freshman the game has ever seen. Beyond the numbers, which are certainly phenomenal in averaging a 22-point, 10-rebound double-double for the season, it’s the control over a game he has which really impresses me. He can bring the ball up as a 6' 9" point guard, he can hoover up every rebound on both ends of the court and he has a growing knack to know just when to come out for an open three to help kick off a run that turns a close game into a Blue Devils blowout. You thought it would be hard to top what Flagg did in Durham, N.C., last season, but Boozer has somehow done so despite the heavy burden his last name comes with every time he steps on the floor.

Final Four and national championship picks

Pat Forde

Apologies for the lack of edginess, but my Final Four is pretty chalky: Arizona, Michigan, Houston and Duke. From there, I’m picking the Wildcats to win their first title since 1997—but the road is difficult. A potential Sweet 16 game against either Arkansas or Wisconsin is fraught with peril, and I don’t think Tommy Lloyd would relish facing his mentor, Gonzaga’s Mark Few, or Purdue in a regional final. Then in the Final Four, a semifinal showdown with Michigan would be an epic battle. But after watching Arizona in Kansas City, I’m convinced this team has all the ingredients of a national champion—NBA talent, stellar guards, massive size, veterans, depth and a coach who can get it done. This would be a good development for the overall health of a sport that is overdue for a champion west of the Rockies.

Kevin Sweeney

I have Duke coming out of the East, Houston beating Florida to represent the South, Arkansas pulling a pair of upsets to get John Calipari back to the Final Four in the West and Michigan holding serve in the Midwest. This season’s crop of No. 1 seeds is strong, but I don’t know that I see a repeat of last year’s No. 1 sweep happening. Someone will create some chaos, and I’m predicting that Darius Acuff Jr. and the Razorbacks are the ones to create it by knocking off Arizona and Purdue.

As for a champion, I’m backing Duke. The Blue Devils are 32–2 and had 95% or better in-game win probabilities in both losses. Boozer is the best player in the country and a huge difference-maker late in games, but what really excites me with Duke is how consistently elite they’ve been on the defensive end. A potential rematch with Michigan in the title game would be awesome, and in the end I think I trust the Blue Devils to get good shots in half-court offense late more than I do the Wolverines.

Bryan Fischer

A few weeks ago when Michigan blitzed Illinois in Champaign, Ill., I was fully expecting to pencil in the Wolverines as my national title pick. They had a great coach, a national player of the year candidate who could do it all in Yaxel Lendeborg and a great big man in Aday Mara. Perhaps it’s the L.J. Cason injury or simply running out of gas, but it doesn’t seem like they’ve been the same since, so I’m going with a little outside thinking and picking Virginia to come out of the Midwest after seeing the Cavaliers in person at the ACC tournament. Maybe it’s a prisoner-of-the-moment selection, but I think their press will be tough in this kind of quick turnaround tournament and they’ve got impressive depth to survive whatever foul trouble they may find themselves in.

On the opposite side of the bracket, I have Duke and Illinois meeting in Indianapolis. I really like the matchups that the Illini will face in the South and I’m just not convinced there’s that big of a gap between them and Houston (even at home) or reigning champ Florida right now. As for the Blue Devils, a historically efficient defense paired with a fantastic offense is a recipe for success—even out of an East region which seems stuffed full of Hall of Famers and bluebloods. Could not be more impressed with Jon Scheyer and how he’s really done an excellent job in game with his offensive sets and pacing.

But, I’m going with Arizona to win it all. Yes, the Wildcats’ somewhat tortuous history in March Madness the past decade or so has given me pause, but this season’s group has been battle-tested in the Big 12 and seem impressively equipped to not have the wild swings we get in performances from round to round that others might have. They have clutch performers, depth, great size, incredible interior defense and seem to just have that vibe around the program this season.

Dark Horse to Watch

Pat Forde

I’m going to answer this on two different levels: a team that can make the Final Four and possibly win it; and a double-digit seed that can make the Sweet 16 or farther.

In the first category I’m going with St. John’s. The double Big East champions (regular season and tournament) were disrespected by the committee with a No. 5 seed and a cross-country assignment—San Diego this week and, if they make it, Washington, D.C., next. But I’ve seen this movie before—Rick Pitino gets a team rolling at the end, wins a league tournament and launches to the Final Four. (See: Louisville in 2005 and ’12.) The Red Storm have the necessary ingredients, if they can make enough shots.

In the second category I’m going with South Florida. The No. 11 seed in the East has done one of the most important things a team can do at this stage—it has forgotten how to lose. The Bulls have won 11 straight, clinching the American regular-season title and rolling through the tourney in the process. Only one game in the current winning streak was decided by fewer than five points. Beating Louisville in the first round is feasible; a second-round matchup with Michigan State would be more difficult.

Kevin Sweeney

I have Arkansas headed to the Final Four as a No. 4 seed, so I think that qualifies. If you were scripting out who could have a Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier–like impact on an NCAA tournament, the first pick would likely be Darius Acuff Jr., who has seemed to raise his game even another level down the stretch. Billy Richmond and Meleek Thomas seem to be playing their best basketball as well. This team is unquestionably talented enough to make a deep run.

I also think UCLA has the makings of a team primed for a run. The Bruins are a different team when Donovan Dent is playing this well. The New Mexico transfer has really turned a corner of late, and getting Skyy Clark back healthy has also helped this backcourt in a big way.

Bryan Fischer

Dare I offer up two even after picking two three-seeds to make it to Indy? First would be Gonzaga, a veteran team with a great coach that plays extremely well on both ends of the court. The Bulldogs have a sneaky good draw, facing either a First Four team or an injured BYU to make it to the second weekend, plus a No. 2 seed in Purdue that they can match up well against and seem quite beatable. Topping Arizona in the Elite Eight (or Wisconsin, Arkansas, etc.) won’t be easy, but the Zags are perfectly equipped to do so and benefit from their location in not having to travel too much.

Also, how about Texas A&M? BuckyBall is not something you want to face with the pressure of March Madness and the short turnarounds involved, to say nothing of potentially staying in Houston where a huge percentage of their fan base resides just 90 minutes from campus. Getting past Kelvin Sampson’s team in any second-round game won’t be easy, but you could see them going on a little run given how intense they play every minute of every game. No. 9 Saint Louis out of the Midwest also tempts me if they can go bananas from beyond the arc in a second-round meeting with Michigan, too.

Most Vulnerable No. 1 Seed

Pat Forde

Florida has a potential Sweet 16 game with a Vanderbilt team that just smoked the Gators in Nashville, but then the going really gets tough in a regional final against Houston in Houston. Revenge is largely overrated, but not in this instance and that setting. Several of the key Cougars are still around, most notably guard Emanuel Sharp, who literally dropped the ball on a potential tying shot at the end of last year’s title game. If Florida gets that far, it might well get no further.

Kevin Sweeney

I think Arizona is awesome, but I’m a bit wary about the Wildcats’ path. While they should escape the first weekend without too much drama, the potential of facing Arkansas or Wisconsin’s elite guards in a single-elimination setting would be giving me ulcers if I was on the Wildcats’ staff. I wouldn’t be thrilled about the potential of having to see Lloyd’s former boss in Few and Gonzaga in the Elite Eight either.

Bryan Fischer

I discussed some of the reservations I had about Michigan above, but I might say Florida would be my choice among the one-seeds. Naturally, playing in Houston against a potential Cougars team aiming for revenge for last year’s title game is top of mind, but the bracket did them few favors in terms of matchups. Iowa has a savvy coach in Ben McCollum who could be an issue in the second round if they make it that far and the second weekend could open with either a Vanderbilt team that just beat the Gators or perhaps a Nebraska side that would be playing with house money and could be dangerous from the perimeter. Florida’s length will always be a big asset in a tournament like this but they will have to pair that with knocking down shots from outside that has waxed and waned at times this season. I’m not sure the SEC made them as battle-tested as they were a year ago so not making it to Indianapolis wouldn’t be a huge shock.

Best Mid-Major Team to Watch

Pat Forde

In terms of aesthetics and entertainment value, I’m going with Saint Louis. Josh Schertz’s Billikens play beautiful basketball, passing and cutting and spreading the floor, splashing threes from all over, and playing through their 6' 10", ground-bound center, Robbie Avila. He’s become a cult hero for his comedic appearance, with the Rec Specs and soft body, but he’s also a wildly skilled big man with a flair for the big shot at the big time. Saint Louis didn’t finish the season well, but if it can regain the mojo of November through mid-February, the Billikens will beat Georgia in the first round and challenge Michigan in the second.

Kevin Sweeney

I’m taking this as my chance to plant my flag with Hofstra, who I believe has a very real chance to upset Alabama. You’ll fall in love quickly with the Pride’s elite guards Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead, with Edmead in particular an exciting watch because of his speed and creativity with the ball in his hands. Plus, they’re coached by a familiar face in Speedy Claxton, once a great player for the Pride under Jay Wright.

Bryan Fischer

I would circle Utah State and its first-round meeting with Villanova if we’re really talking about best here, particularly in an No. 8 vs. No. 9 seed game where anything goes. MJ Collins Jr. has a chance to really go off in a setting like this, and Jerrod Calhoun is an excellent head coach with the Aggies who will be putting his best foot forward as perhaps the top name on the coaching carousel once the team’s run is over. As far as fun to watch, Saint Louis would rank highly in my book given how quick they look to shoot, how three-point reliant they are and, of course, for all the great nicknames you’ll hear on the broadcast regarding sharpshooting big man Avila.

But the real answer is Miami (Ohio). It has history behind its backs after the loss to Massachusetts in the MAC tournament, and it will really become America’s favorite Cinderella if it gets into the main draw and faces off against a Tennessee team that could be happy to play a game in transition. It seems like every one of the RedHawks’ games comes down to the wire to make their fans sweat and their veteran core do tend to execute at a high level in such situations that offers a sharp contrast to most others this time of year.

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