Most Consequential Men’s College Basketball Bubble Games to Watch on Final Weekend

March has arrived and with it the final weekend for men’s college basketball teams to make their mark before the bulk of conference tournaments get underway next week.

Given the sheer number of important games still left on the docket, Sports Illustrated will split our usual list of the best games to watch this weekend into two segments, starting with the most consequential matchups involving programs on the bubble of making the field of 68. Only a few spots are truly up for grabs, but a handful of those bubble teams have the potential to pick up pivotal résumé boosters in their regular-season finales.

The Mountain West and Big Ten are the two conferences most involved in the action, but from Friday night hoops in the Atlantic 10 to a basketball edition of the Iron Bowl, games with bubble ramifications litter the slate all weekend long. Let’s highlight eight of the most important for you to keep an eye on.

VCU Rams (23–7) at Dayton Flyers (21–9)

Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

To kick off the slate of bubble games, we head to the A-10 where the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the league square off. VCU’s résumé is severely lacking with just one Q1 win in the back pocket and a handful of close losses in similar opportunities—against Utah State, New Mexico, A-10 leader Saint Louis (twice) and Vanderbilt. But Friday’s game at Dayton presents a coveted Q1 opportunity, and a chance for the Rams to play their way into the field of 68. VCU dominated Dayton the last time both teams met behind 26 points from Jadrian Tracey, which bodes well for the rematch.

UNLV Rebels (16–14) at San Diego State Aztecs (19–10)

Friday, 10 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

It’s never good to be a program limping into the NCAA tournament, but that’s how the situation has shaken out for San Diego State. Losers of four of their last five, the Aztecs are playing some of their worst basketball. Their saving grace? The sole win came in dominant fashion over Utah State, the best team in the Mountain West. The key to that win was contributions beyond leading scorer Reese Dixon-Waters; three other Aztecs came off the bench to score in double figures. That’s a much more consistent formula for winning, but even with a victory in Friday night’s finale against UNLV, San Diego State will need to have a deep run in the conference tournament to get into the field of 68.

TCU Horned Frogs (20–10) at Cincinnati Bearcats (17–13)

Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, TNT/TruTV

TCU’s win over a JT Toppin–less Texas Tech team may not be given the credit it deserves, but it’s a tremendous accomplishment, especially since that same Red Raiders team just beat Iowa State on the road a few days earlier. Perhaps more importantly for TCU, Texas Tech also recently cruised to a win over Cincinnati—the Horned Frogs’ opponent in the regular-season finale. The midweek victory gave TCU the upper hand among Big 12 bubble teams, but there’s no doubt Saturday’s result will be evaluated by the selection committee. The Bearcats are playing inspired, too, having won six of their last seven—and scoring 90-plus points in four of those six wins.

SMU Mustangs (19–11) at Florida State Seminoles (16–14)

Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ACC Network

The Mustangs picked a horrendous time to drop two straight games against fellow bubble teams Cal and Stanford before adding a home loss to No. 22 Miami on Wednesday. The result sets up a borderline must win over a streaking Florida State team that’s won five of its last six, including a nail-biter at Pitt. Trying to decipher what’s gone wrong for SMU is difficult—twice in the past three games, star players Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr. have each scored 20 or more points. But Stanford and Miami both shot the lights out, and if the Seminoles can repeat that sort of performance, the Mustangs may have to go to another level to avoid a sweat on Selection Sunday.

New Mexico Aggies (22–8) at Utah State Aggies (24–6)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Mountain West Network

New Mexico’s 2–5 record against Q1 opponents looms large coming into the final weekend, but that’s what makes this regular-season finale so beneficial. Playing the conference-leading program with an NCAA bid on the line? That’s the sort of game that brings out tournament-level intensity. New Mexico came out flat, scoring just 25 first-half points against Colorado State in a discouraging home loss on Wednesday. Presumably, New Mexico, a team that shoots 36.3% from three, won’t go 3 of 13 from beyond the arc again like it did the last time it played Utah State in a blowout loss just over a month ago.

Indiana Hoosiers (18–12) at Ohio State Buckeyes (19–11)

Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET, Fox

A game between two Big Ten teams on completely different trajectories may decide one of the final spots in the field of 68. The Hoosiers are reeling, having lost four straight before a blowout win over a shorthanded Minnesota team on Wednesday. The Buckeyes, however, may not need this game as badly after besting Purdue last weekend and then taking care of business against Penn State. Keep an eye on Ohio State senior Bruce Thornton, who’s just 11 points shy of becoming the program’s all-time leading scorer.

Auburn Tigers (16–14) at No. 16 Alabama Crimson Tide (22–8)

Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Iron Bowl moves from the gridiron to the hardwood for the most consequential game of Steven Pearl’s young head coaching career. A win over LSU stopped the bleeding for Auburn against the rest of the SEC’s bottom-feeders, but even a difficult schedule and borderline top-40 résumé may not help a team that’s lost seven of its last nine. That said, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa would go a long way going into the SEC tournament. The Tigers and Tide combined for 188 points the last time they met in early February, which should make this a high-scoring affair with serious stakes on the line.

UCLA Bruins (20–10) at USC Trojans (18–12)

Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, FS1

What a way to close out Saturday. The crosstown rivals meet at USC for a game that may not impact the bubble like we thought it would two weeks ago, but could cause some chaos. The Trojans are in disarray, having lost six straight and with Chad Baker-Mazara bizarrely leaving the team at the lowpoint of the downward spiral. With him, of late, USC isn’t a tournament team. Without him, the Trojans definitely are not a tournament team. But they still have a chance to make UCLA uncomfortable, even after the Bruins’ 72–52 shellacking of No. 9 Nebraska in Westwood earlier this week. Donovan Dent dropped 30 when the L.A. rivals met on Feb. 24—and in the two games since he’s scored just seven points total.

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