Ranking All Eight Men’s March Madness Sweet 16 Games

And then there were 16.

We’re through the first weekend of men’s March Madness and the field of 68 has been trimmed down significantly—and only the best of the best remain. There wasn’t much room for chaos this year, in line with what we saw from the top teams in college basketball all season long, and still No. 9 Iowa and No. 11 Texas managed to slip their way into the Sweet 16.

Final four contenders like No. 1 Florida got sent packing, which made Sports Illustrated think a bit differently about the way the Sweet 16 stacks up. It’s also time for a set of game rankings, this time for the eight matchups left on the men’s side.

Once again, our second-round rankings were a bit hit or miss. Iowa’s upset of Florida was put as the 16th game on the list, so a sincere apology to all of the Hawkeyes fans who read that and would now like to say, “I told you so.” Arkansas–High Point and St. John’s–Kansas were No. 1 and No. 2 on the list, respectively, so at least we’re doing something right.

Without further ado, here are SI’s Sweet 16 game rankings:

8. No. 2 seed Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas

Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS

Sean Miller’s Longhorns deserve ample credit for being just the sixth First Four team to reach the Sweet 16, but it’s important to acknowledge that they’ve done so by beating two shorthanded teams in BYU (without Richie Saunders) and Gonzaga (sans Braden Huff). Texas will get no such benefit against Purdue, though Purdue’s C.J. Cox hyperextended his knee in the round of 32. The key for Texas has been its physicality inside, particularly from Matas Vokietaitis, who will face his toughest matchup of the tournament thus far against the Boilermakers tandem of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. Purdue, now riding a six-game win streak, continues to play well because of its array of options offensively. Fletcher Loyer was the hero in the second round against Miami, pouring in 24 points to help alleviate some of the uncharacteristic pain caused by a career-high eight turnovers from Braden Smith. Chances are Smith isn’t that careless with the basketball again and Purdue takes care of business.

7. No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee

Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET, truTV/TBS

No Joshua Jefferson, no problem for the Cyclones in round two as they forced Kentucky to commit a whopping 20 turnovers and cruised to a nearly 20-point victory. Iowa State generates takeaways as well as any program in the country, which will put plenty of pressure on Ja’Kobi Gillespie and the Vols’ backcourt. The matchup between Gillespie and Tamin Lipsey very well could dictate the outcome in this game as both were masterful in their round of 32 games. Stylistically, these teams are drastically different, with Tennessee outside the top 300 nationally in three-point attempts and Iowa State featuring a sharpshooter like Milan Momcilovic, who hasn’t skipped a beat from beyond the arc in the tournament. Plus, Jefferson is reportedly progressing in his recovery which would give the Cyclones a clear advantage in this one.

6. No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama

Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET, truTV/TBS

If you didn’t think this Michigan team was scary before, the first two rounds should have made that fact crystal clear. What the Wolverines did against Saint Louis, and A-10 Player of the Year Robbie Avila in particular, was astounding a testament to their interior defense. On top of that, Michgan shot 56% from the floor, dominated on the glass (42–27) and had all five starters score in double figures by the final whistle. Now Alabama not only makes threes at a similar clip to Saint Louis, but also takes more shots from beyond the arc than any program in the country, which could be the key to pulling Michigan’s defenders away from the basket. The issue for the Tide is that Yaxel Lendeborg has proven he can defend any position on the floor and it’s likely that Alabama’s players won’t get the sort of free space they got to shoot in the first two rounds. Plus, we’ve seen what can happen if the three-ball dries up for the Tide—just take a look at the SEC quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago.

5. No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, truTV/TBS

Seemingly the entirety of the Midwest, or at least the majority of Lincoln will descend upon Houston for the third matchup this season between the Big Ten rivals. Nebraska and Iowa split the season series and the difference in outcomes can largely be attributed to the difference in performance for Hawkeyes star Bennett Stirtz. In mid-February at home, Stirtz scored 25 points and took 22 of Iowa’s 51 shots—making eight of them, while the rest of the Hawkeyes’ rotation made just nine. Then on March 8, this time in Lincoln, Iowa’s supporting cast stepped up, but Nebraska forced Stirtz to defer as he went just 4 of 10 from the floor. Forcing the ball out of the Drake transfer’s hands is the key to success for the Huskers, who have gotten timely contributions from the entire roster throughout the first two rounds. This game could end up as a serious slog if shots from Stirtz or Nebraska sharpshooter Pryce Sandfort aren’t going in as both teams play slow—Nebraska ranking 227th in pace with Iowa at 362nd.

4. No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s

Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS

Rick Pitino is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time in more than a decade—and the Johnnies are the hottest team left in the field. Winners of 21 of their last 22, the Red Storm continue to be exceptional defensively. Unfortunately, the shotmaking dried up significantly in the second half against Kansas until Dylan Darling bailed the team out with an exceptional one-man effort on the final play. Zuby Ejiofor continues to be a force on the inside, with 12 blocks and 29 rebounds in his last three games, but he’ll meet his match in Cameron Boozer against Duke. Plus, the Blue Devils worked Patrick Ngongba II back into the rotation slowly against TCU which bodes well for matchups with the size and length of St. John’s. Duke hasn’t shot the ball well in the tournament thus far, going 12 of 47 (25.5%) from three, but St. John’s really hasn’t shot the ball well all season. Unless Bryce Hopkins can stay as hot as he was against Kansas (6 for 9 from beyond the arc), it’s difficult to see Pitino getting back to another Elite Eight.

3. No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State

Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS

UConn’s Alex Karaban has more championship experience than anyone in this year’s NCAA tournament and through the first two rounds he’s risen to the occasion, scoring 49 points in the Huskies’ first two wins. But he’ll face a tougher defense from Tom Izzo’s Spartans than he did against Furman or a UCLA team without Tyler Bilodeau. Michigan State should be able to match the physicality of UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr., who’s been a force on the glass through the first two rounds. And with Jeremy Fears Jr. distributing the ball at such a high level, highlighted by his 16 assists against Louisville, the Huskies’ perimeter defense will have to be up to the task. Dan Hurley and Tom Izzo haven’t actually met in a game since November 2021. More than four years later, they remain at the top of their craft. Only one of them will play for a spot in the Final Four—a place they’ve collectively been nine times before.

2. No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois

Thursday, 10:05 p.m. ET, truTV/TBS

This feels like a Final Four game taking place in the Sweet 16—and it’s in Houston where the home crowd will surely have the Toyota Center rocking by the time this late-night matchup tips off. This is a standard high-octane offense (Illinois) vs. lockdown defense (Houston). And both teams have blown out their competition through the first two rounds. Houston stifled Idaho and Texas A&M, winning by 41 points and then by 31. Illinois took down Penn by 35 and cruised past VCU by 21. It’s hard to see this being a blowout though, so prepare yourself for another tough, physical game. The Cougars like to play slow and grind down teams, whereas Illinois tends to be much more fluid. All eyes will be on the freshman point guard matchup between the Illini’s Keaton Wagler and Kingston Flemings of the Cougars—both projected top-10 picks and 19-year-olds capable of exhibiting poise well beyond their years.

1. No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas

Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS

I’m bullish on the watchability of this Arkansas team, because I think Darius Acuff Jr. is not only the most exciting player still left in the tournament, but perhaps has been the most entertaining to watch all season. After just 24 points in the opener, the standout freshman dropped 36 on High Point and took complete command of the game down the stretch with his team’s fate handing in the balance. The question still remains if a lack of depth will catch up to these Razorbacks, especially against a team like Arizona. John Calipari goes just six players deep, whereas it feels like any of seven different Wildcats can be the guy on any given day. In the first round it was a combination of Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. In the round of 32, Jaden Bradley took over and scored 12 of his 18 in the second half to hold off Utah State. Anthony Dell’Orso could get hot off the bench and be Arizona’s best player, while Motiejus Krivas gives the Cats an option to battle down low against Arkansas center Trevon Brazile. It’s quite possible that Arizona has the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-best players in this game, but the Razorbacks have Acuff, setting the stage for what could be an all-time performance.

More March Madness From Sports Illustrated

Listen to SI’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on the SI College YouTube channel.