Reseeding the Sweet 16: Ranking Every Team Left in Men’s March Madness

After a chaotic opening weekend, here’s how the remaining 16 teams stack up based on their tournament performance so far.

Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg dunks during the NCAA men’s tournament. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

After last season’s extremely chalky first weekend of the NCAA men’s tournament, this year delivered several surprising upsets, some incredible buzzer beaters (and a few near misses), plus some shocking performances that sent a few Final Four contenders home early.

Now that we know who has survived and advanced into the four regionals, how does every team stack up with just two weeks left in the postseason? Channeling our inner selection committee, here’s a reseeding of teams based on their play so far going into the Sweet 16.

No. 1 Michigan

Actual seed: No. 3 overall, No. 1 in Midwest region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 4 Alabama

The Wolverines ran out of gas in the Big Ten tournament final against Purdue but can still cut down the nets in Chicago based on how they thumped Howard and Saint Louis in their first two games. If Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara play like they did in Buffalo, there may be nobody stopping this group before even accounting for the way the bracket has opened up for them.

No. 2 Illinois

Actual seed: No. 10 overall, No. 3 in South region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 2 Houston

Coach Brad Underwood barely broke a sweat during his team’s first two games to send a statement to the rest of the bracket that this group is healthy and hard to deal with. They have so many options they can put out on the court and it’s not just depth, but serious length, too. It will not be an easy task to get past the Cougars in their own city, but this group is equipped to and has a very feasible path to the Final Four.

No. 3 Houston

Actual seed: No. 5 overall, No. 2 in South region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 3 Illinois

There’s taking care of business on the first weekend and there is laying waste to your two opponents. Kelvin Sampson’s team certainly did the latter in trouncing Idaho and Texas A&M to get a chance to go back home to win a regional while sleeping in their own beds. You kind of wonder if escaping the weekly grind of the Big 12 will actually open this group up to playing better. 

No. 4 Arizona

Actual seed: No. 2 overall, No. 1 in West region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 4 Arkansas

The Wildcats took care of business in their opener with ease and looked like they were going to do the same against Utah State on Sunday night before taking their foot off the gas late to make that closer than it should have been. They’ll be in their third straight Sweet 16 however and still look on track to be the class of the West in trying to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2001.

No. 5 Iowa State

Actual seed: No. 7 overall, No. 2 in Midwest region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 6 Tennessee

Naturally, much of the Cyclones’ ceiling this March will revolve around forward Joshua Jefferson’s status. With him, they’re perfectly capable of making it to Indianapolis for the Final Four. Even without him, they still have a fighting chance after what they showed in the first two rounds, particularly that destruction of Kentucky that saw pretty much everybody on the roster deliver something for the highlights. T.J. Otzelberger is pushing all the right buttons, but all eyes will remain on Jefferson to see just what Iowa State is capable of.

Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson is helped off of the court after suffering an apparent injury in a first-round game of the NCAA men’s tournament. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

No. 6 Duke 

Actual seed: No. 1 overall, No. 1 in East region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 5 St. John’s

After a shockingly close call against No. 16 Siena in their tourney opener, Duke looked much more like the No. 1 overall seed in pulling away from No. 9 TCU in the second half. The Blue Devils’ defensive identity gives the lone ACC team still dancing a high floor in every game, but they must tighten things up on the offensive end if they want to survive their next two tests in the nation’s capital. The national player of the year, Cameron Boozer, still has more to contribute and the return of center Patrick Ngongba II should help the rotation in the frontcourt return to what it was the last time they made the trip to Capital One Arena to play Michigan last month.

No. 7 Purdue

Actual seed: No. 8 overall, No. 2 in West region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 11 Texas

Which version of Purdue are we going to get in the second weekend as that home state Final Four looms for the taking—the one that had everything rolling against Queens or the one that was slightly more out of rhythm against Miami? If Braden Smith returns to form and Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn play like they have been, the long trip out west can be a productive one.

No. 8 Tennessee

Actual seed: No. 21 overall, No. 6 in Midwest region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 2 Iowa State

Make it four consecutive Sweet 16s for Rick Barnes and the Vols, who have survived two very different tests in facing off against the veterans of Miami (Ohio) and the unrelenting waves of defenders that Virginia throws at you. If Ja’Kobi Gillespie can keep averaging 25 points per game and Nate Ament picks up the pace, it’s not crazy to think this is the low seed to keep an eye on in the second weekend.

No. 9 Arkansas

Actual seed: No. 16 overall, No. 4 in West region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 1 Arizona

In Darius Acuff Jr., the Razorbacks have somebody who is capable of willing his team to the Final Four. He’s scored at least 24 in every elimination game this month and exploded for 36 to stave off pesky High Point on Saturday to get them to another Sweet 16. You would like to see a better defense but at this point the team is what it is on that front and seem content to outscore everyone all the way to Indy. 

No. 10 Michigan State

Actual seed: No. 9 overall, No. 3 in East region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 2 UConn

This was a fun team to watch on the first weekend as Coen Carr was throwing it down and Jeremy Fears Jr. didn’t seem to miss while dishing out double-digit assists. You know they’ll be tough to break down defensively but it will be how well they can score consistently which will ultimately determine if they can make it to Indianapolis—where Tom Izzo just so happened to win the Big Ten’s last national title.

No. 11 St. John’s 

Actual seed: No. 18 overall, No. 5 in East region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 1 Duke

You know exactly what you’re going to get when the Big East champions show up and that’s suffocating defense that does not let up one second at this time of year. The offense deserted them against No. 4 Kansas on Sunday, which might be the only thing that gives you pause moving forward as Rick Pitino needs to find a way to manufacture points like he did at the end of that win over the Jayhawks.

No. 12 Connecticut

Actual seed: No. 6 overall, No. 2 in East region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 3 Michigan State

Dan Hurley’s team needed a historic outing from Tarris Reed Jr. to survive Furman and then had Alex Karaban go off to stave off UCLA. They did get Silas Demary Jr. back for some time and Jaylin Stewart might be on track to go in Washington, D.C., too. The ceiling is making Indy, but they need everybody in their starting lineup to be firing on all cylinders to do so—which hasn’t happened yet this month. 

UConn guard Silas Demary Jr. reacts during a second-round game against UCLA in the NCAA men’s tournament. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

No. 13 Alabama

Actual seed: No. 14 overall, No. 4 in Midwest region
Upcoming game: Friday vs. No. 1 Michigan

There’s no doubt the Crimson Tide got a favorable draw in the first weekend between a Hofstra team that didn’t mind playing at the pace that Nate Oats wanted and a Texas Tech side that was never a real threat without JT Toppin. Labaron Philon Jr.’s superstar play has made up for the loss of Aden Holloway so far, but much tougher tests await in Chicago.

No. 14 Nebraska

Actual seed: No. 13 overall, No. 4 in South region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 9 Iowa

The Cornhuskers finally got the monkey off their back, not only winning their first ever NCAA tournament game but making it to the first weekend too after a magical game against Vanderbilt that was one of the best in the bracket so far. Their reward will be a rare postseason rubber match against rival Iowa, who will not be sleeping on Pryce Sandfort and company down in Houston.

No. 15 Iowa 

Actual seed: No. 36 overall, No. 9 in South Region
Upcoming game: Thursday, March 26 vs. No. 4 Nebraska

Ben McCollum knows how to win tournament games even if taking Iowa to the Sweet 16 for the first time is a little different having come at the Division I level—and needing to beat the reigning champion Florida to do so. This still seems like a group punching above their weight but when they’re in the flow of the game, you can’t overlook them either. Plus, the Hawkeyes probably will like it that they got an 0-of-9 shooting effort behind the arc from Bennett Stirtz out of his system before heading to Texas. 

No. 16 Texas

Actual seed: No. 42 overall, No. 11 in West region
Upcoming game: Thursday vs. No. 2 Purdue

Sean Miller can coach, eh? He’s really squeezed the most out of this group, which felt dead in the water a month ago during SEC play but have gone from First Four to the second weekend with some clutch play. It seems like a different guy is hitting the big shots in the final minutes of a close game every time out on the court, which probably isn’t sustainable but can still have them dreaming big. The next two are very winnable for the Longhorns despite being one of the last teams into the tournament and it would be incredible if Miller matches up against his old employer Arizona for the right to go to the Final Four this weekend.

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