SI:AM | One Thing to Know About Each Final Four Game

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In today’s SI:AM:
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💻 NCAA attempts to limit online abuse
🏈 NFL’s highest-paid players

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Final Four preview

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March Madness is almost over. Well, it’s April, but you know what I mean. Today and tomorrow are the last days with multiple college basketball games until November. The women’s Final Four begins tonight in Phoenix, followed by the men’s games tomorrow night in Indianapolis. All four matchups should be fun, so let’s look at each one in more detail.

Women’s: No. 1 UConn vs. No. 1 South Carolina (7 p.m. ET on Friday)

If any team can contain UConn’s two-headed monster on offense, it might be South Carolina.

The Huskies are led by the duo of senior guard Azzi Fudd and sophomore forward Sarah Strong, both of whom were first-team All-American selections by the Associated Press. (Strong was also named the winner of the Naismith Award on Wednesday.) They’ve combined to score 40% of UConn’s points this season.

But South Carolina might have the answer to contain at least one of those stars. Redshirt senior guard Raven Johnson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the nation, and she’s capable of hounding Fudd and forcing UConn to rely more on Strong and the team’s secondary scoring threats. Johnson was named the Sacramento 4 Regional Most Outstanding Player primarily because of her defensive acumen.

The trouble for the Gamecocks is that even if Johnson can neutralize Fudd, UConn still has the best player in the nation in Strong, as well as a reliable third scoring option in Blanca Quiñonez. Quiñonez is actually the Huskies’ second leading scorer in the tournament, with five more points than Fudd.

No one has been able to stop UConn this season, and South Carolina is going to have to play a perfect game if it wants to reach the championship game. If the Gamecocks want to make this one more competitive than last year’s title game (an 82–59 UConn win), then it starts with Johnson doing a better job of keeping Fudd in check.

Women’s: No. 1 Texas vs. No. 1 UCLA (9:30 p.m. ET on Friday)

How much stock should we put in Texas’s win over UCLA earlier this season?

The Longhorns beat the Bruins on Nov. 26, 76–65, on a neutral court in Las Vegas. UCLA star Lauren Betts was held to just eight points on 4-for-8 shooting. Did Texas find the key to containing her, or was Betts simply hampered by an injury? Betts collided with Texas star Madison Booker early in the third quarter and retreated to the locker room for treatment. She quickly returned and still logged a team-high 37 minutes of playing time.

Betts has not been as dominant this season as she was last year. She’s still among the best players in the nation and was named an All-American for the second straight season, but her statistics have slipped. She’s averaging 17.2 points per game, down from 20.2 last season, and has hit 57.9% of her field-goal attempts, an impressive number but a significant decline from last year’s 64.8%.

Betts might not even be the best player in this game. Texas forward Madison Booker has shown her ability to take over games during the tournament, building on a second straight first-team All-American season. But Booker, too, struggled in that early-season game against UCLA, scoring 16 points on an uncharacteristic 6-for-17 shooting performance from the field. Will Friday’s game be any different for either player?

Men’s: No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois (6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday)

Keep an eye on the rebounding battle here.

Illinois was among the best rebounding teams in the nation this season, ranking seventh with a rebounding percentage of 57.2%. The Illini have won the battle on the boards in 30 of their 36 games this season and have lost five of the six games in which they were out-rebounded.

One of those games was against UConn on Nov. 28, which the Huskies won 74–61 while holding the advantage on the boards 40–35. Rebounding wasn’t the issue for Illinois in that game—the Fighting Illini had a dismal shooting performance (31.7% from the floor)—but it’s been one of the team’s strengths all season long and has been strongly correlated with their success. They’re 27–3 when they collect more rebounds than their opponent.

UConn is pretty good on the boards, too, ranking 28th nationally in rebounding percentage, but it’s been less integral to their success. The Huskies are 10–3 when the rebounding margin is even or in favor of their opponent. That includes the team’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight wins.

UConn forward Tarris Reed Jr. has been collecting rebounds at a historic pace during this NCAA tournament. His 31-point, 27-rebound performance against Furman in the first round made him the first player with 30-plus points and 25-plus rebounds in a tournament game since Elvin Hayes in 1968. He has 87 points and 54 rebounds in the Huskies’ first four March Madness games, making him just the sixth player to reach those numbers in a span of four NCAA tournament games since seeding began in 1979. He has recorded more rebounds than any other player in this year’s tournament. In second place? Illinois freshman David Mirkovic with 44.

Men’s: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona (8:49 p.m. ET on Saturday)

Will Michigan force Arizona to shoot some three-pointers?

The Wildcats seem to be allergic to taking shots from beyond the arc. They ranked third-to-last in the nation this season in three-point attempt rate, taking barely more than a quarter of their shots from three (26.4%). They’ve taken even fewer threes in the NCAA tournament (22.8%) and have the lowest three-point attempt rate of any team in the field. Only four teams in the last 20 years have advanced to the Final Four while attempting so few three-pointers: LSU in 2006, UConn in ’09 and Kentucky in ’12 and ’15. That ’12 Kentucky team and UConn in 1999 are the only teams in the last 30 years to win a national championship while attempting fewer three-pointers than Arizona has.

But Arizona still has a prolific offense, ranking 12th nationally in points per game. The Wildcats put up 109 points in their Sweet 16 win over Arkansas while only attempting eight threes. It was just the third time since 1997 that a team scored at least 100 points in a March Madness game while attempting 10 or fewer three-pointers.

It might be tough to play that way against Michigan, though. The Wolverines have plenty of size on the interior (Aday Mara is 7'3", while Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. are both 6'9"). As a team, Michigan has averaged 6.1 blocks per game this season, second in the nation, and has allowed the fourth-lowest shooting percentage on two-point shots.

Something’s got to give. Either Arizona’s burly forward Koa Peat and slashing guard Brayden Burries will solve Michigan’s interior defense, or the Wildcats will be forced to find offense on the outside. Arizona has capable three-point shooters—Burries and Jaden Bradley are both shooting roughly 40% from three—but it just hasn’t taken many outside shots. It might not have a better option on Saturday, though.

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The top five…

… things I saw last night:
5. The way the center field camera was shaking due to high winds in Kansas City.
4. Kon Knueppel’s 261st three-pointer of the season, a new Hornets franchise record.
3. Cole Caufield’s sweet move to score a late game-winning goal for the Canadiens against the Rangers.
2. Some vintage James Harden isolation play to help seal the Cavs’ win over the Warriors.
1. Alek Thomas’s sliding catch in center.