SI:AM | Six Potential Men’s and Women’s March Madness Cinderellas

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. If you want to compare your March Madness prediction skills to SI’s experts, be sure to enter our bracket challenge here.

In today’s SI:AM:
✅ March Madness picks
⚾ Team USA advances in WBC
⛳ Åberg sinks at the Players

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Upset alert

March Madness is officially here. After the conference tournament appetizers, the brackets for the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments were released on Sunday. Our experts have already published their predictions for both brackets and will have plenty more indispensable information before the first round tips off on Thursday, but you can never have too much March Madness coverage, right? Here are six teams (three men’s, three women’s) that caught my eye as potential Cinderella picks.

High Point men (No. 12 seed, facing No. 5 Wisconsin at 1:50 p.m. ET on Thursday)

High Point is back in the tournament for the second year in a row after losing to Purdue in the first round as a 13-seed last year. Nearly every contributor from that team graduated, but the Panthers replaced them with a bunch of experienced transfers. They lost their head coach, too, as Alan Huss took an assistant job at Creighton. (Huss, a former Creighton player and longtime Bluejays assistant, was named coach-in-waiting to take over whenever Greg McDermott retires.) Flynn Clayman, his top assistant, replaced him.

High Point has picked up right where it left off under Clayman, continuing to boast one of the best offenses in the nation. The Panthers ranked third nationally in offensive efficiency this season, the same as last year. What’s different is that High Point also has a top-notch defense. After ranking 111th in defensive rating last season, it was 19th this year. The Panthers are tied with Iowa State for the fourth-best defensive turnover percentage in the nation. Wisconsin has not coughed up the ball much this season (it’s actually tied with High Point for the fifth-lowest offensive turnover percentage) but High Point could force the Badgers to make some costly mistakes.

Fairfield women (No. 11 seed, facing No. 6 Notre Dame at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday)

The signs along the highway on Connecticut’s border with Massachusetts welcoming drivers to the “Basketball Capital of the World” are a reference to UConn’s history of success, but there’s another school in the southwestern corner of the state that’s adding to that reputation.

The Fairfield women’s team is in the NCAA tournament for the third year in a row and the fourth time in five years. The Stags have dominated the MAAC in recent years, posting a cumulative record of 87–11 over the past three seasons. Here’s the full list of NCAA women’s programs with at least 85 wins over the past three seasons: UConn, South Carolina, Texas, UCLA, LSU and Fairfield. Pretty impressive company.

Coach Carly Thibault-Dudonis has consistently ratcheted up the difficulty of the Stags’ schedule as the team has raised its expectations. This year, that schedule featured a game at Iowa and a neutral-site game against North Carolina. They lost both of those games by 14 points, but they did win road games against two other tournament teams (Villanova and Richmond).

The Stags boast a lockdown defense that held teams under 50 points in 11 games this season (only eight teams in the nation had more such games) but also have an explosive offense that ranked 19th in points per 100 possessions. They have the highest three-point attempt rate in Division I and rank 10th in three-point percentage. That could be a problem for a mediocre Notre Dame defense that ranks 195th in points allowed per game.

McNeese State men (No. 12 seed, facing No. 5 Vanderbilt at 3:10 p.m. ET on Thursday)

You may remember McNeese from its upset victory over Clemson as a 13-seed last year. More likely, you remember the Cowboys because of Amir Khan, who went viral for rapping with a boombox strapped over his shoulders while leading the team to the court and subsequently became the first student manager to land an NIL deal.

McNeese (as well as Khan) is back and looking to recapture last year’s magic. Coach Will Wade skipped town to take the NC State job, but the Cowboys haven’t missed a beat under new coach Bill Armstrong.

McNeese’s star player is redshirt freshman Larry Johnson, a former four-star recruit who initially signed with Creighton but did not play there last season and opted to transfer. He’s averaging 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. He’s part of a four-guard lineup that makes life difficult for opposing offenses, leading the nation in steal percentage. The Cowboys got a decent matchup in Vanderbilt, too. Only one player in the Commodores’ rotation is taller than 6'7".

Colorado State women (No. 12 seed, facing No. 5 Michigan State at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday)

The Spartans will have their work cut out for them against a Colorado State team that plays excellent defense and likes to grind the game to a halt.

The Rams play at one of the slowest paces in the nation (337th out of 363 teams), which is a major reason why they allowed the seventh-fewest points per game this season (54.9). But they’re also among the best in the nation in defensive efficiency (ranked 35th). Most importantly, they don’t make mistakes. They rank fifth in turnover rate. That could be crucial against a Michigan State team with a mediocre defense (ranked 162nd defensive rating). It’s easy to envision a scenario where Colorado State’s defense keeps the game close, it takes a late lead and then sits on the ball to close it out.

Akron men (No. 12 seed, facing No. 5 Texas Tech at 12:40 p.m. ET on Friday)

Miami (Ohio) sucked up all the narrative oxygen in the MAC this season, but don’t sleep on the conference champion. Akron is in the tournament for the third year in a row and the fourth time in five years. The Zips have one of the best offenses in the country (ranked seventh in points per game and fifth in offensive rating), led by MAC leading scorer Tavari Johnson.

The biggest reason to believe Akron could pull off an upset is that Texas Tech isn’t at full strength. Star player JT Toppin went down with a season-ending injury on Feb. 17, and while the Red Raiders did win their next three games (including an impressive road victory over Iowa State), they enter the tournament having lost three in a row.

South Dakota State women (No. 11 seed, facing No. 6 Washington at 2:30 p.m. ET on Friday)

Coach Aaron Johnston has built one of women’s basketball’s most impressive mid-major dynasties. The Jackrabbits have only missed the NCAA tournament four times in the past 18 years. But they also haven’t gotten out of the tournament’s first weekend since 2019. Could this be the year they make their second Sweet 16?

If they do, it’ll be because of star forward Brooklyn Meyer. The senior ranked 10th in the nation with 22.8 points per game this season and was one of only three players to average at least 20 points and eight rebounds per game.

South Dakota State ranks 14th in offensive efficiency and seventh in field goal percentage, which is bad news for a Washington team that ranks 205th in opponent field goal percentage.

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Stephanie Apstein writes that, in a tournament that has been defined by its home run celebrations, Team USA counted on its pitching to silence a loaded Dominican Republic lineup and advance to the World Baseball Classic final.
Ludvig Åberg had a two-stroke lead with eight holes left at The Players Championship. Bob Harig writes that instead of a crowning moment, the Swede’s hopes unraveled with two water balls.
Cameron Young came through when it mattered, though. Max Schreiber details the 28-year-old’s late heroics en route to winning the title at TPC Sawgrass.

The top five…

… things I saw yesterday:
5. A tough bucket for Jalen Brunson as the Knicks came back to beat the Warriors. New York overcame a 21-point deficit for its biggest comeback win of the season.
4. Jeffrey Viel’s no-look assist on the Ducks’ game-winning goal against the Canadiens.
3. Aaron Judge’s perfect throw to nail Fernando Tatis Jr. at third.
2. Julio Rodríguez’s home run robbery on Judge’s shot to center.
1. Penn forward TJ Power’s game-tying shot in the final seconds to force overtime against Yale in the Ivy League championship. Power and Penn went on to win in OT to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.