What Would an Expanded Men’s March Madness 76-Team Bracket Look Like?

The NCAA men’s tournament announced what may well be its final 68-team field Sunday. Expansion conversations that have buzzed for the last two years continue, with most proposals coalescing around a potential 76-team field that would feature an expanded opening round of 12 play-in games into the main 64-team draw.

That got us thinking: What would a 76-team bracket actually look like this season? So Sports Illustrated put on its selection committee cap and went to work rebuilding the bracket in 76-team format. Who’s in, who’s stuck in a play-in round and who’s still out? Here’s a look into the potential future of one of America’s most beloved sporting events:

The “First 12”

Eight added at-large teams

Oklahoma
Auburn
San Diego State
Indiana
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech
California
Arizona State

To expand to 76, SI assigned the eight additional at-large bids to the First Four Out as listed by the selection committee and then the next four highest-rated teams in the NCAA’s Wins Above Bubble metric as of Sunday morning. Those four were four middling high-majors: Oklahoma State (19–14, 6–12), Virginia Tech (19–13, 8–10), Cal (21–11, 9–9) and Arizona State (17–16, 7–11).

That means even with a 76-team field, strong mid-majors like Belmont, New Mexico and Yale would not have gotten in. That’s likely also true for Akron and South Florida had those teams lost in the MAC and American title games, though we don’t have the capacity to fully simulate WAB movement. Even McNeese State, which currently has a better WAB than Oklahoma and Indiana, may have fallen enough with a loss to Stephen F. Austin to not crack the field.

Imagine the bubble conversations in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday if these were the teams sweating out NCAA tournament bids. Tuesday’s Arizona State vs. Baylor game to open the Big 12 tournament felt meaningless this past week; it might have been the biggest bubble battle of the week in a 76-team field!

In all, just one of the eight bids added by expanding the field was a mid-major team (perennial tournament team San Diego State), crushing a core argument many of expansion’s biggest advocates have made. That number probably would have been two had VCU lost to Dayton in the Atlantic 10 title game, but even then, it’s still only a small sliver of the total bids added.

Here’s what SI projects the matchups would look like for these hypothetical play-in games:

At-large play-ins

No. 13 Arizona State vs. No. 13 California
No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 12 Virginia Tech
No. 12 Indiana vs. No. 12 Oklahoma
No. 11 Auburn vs. No. 11 San Diego State
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) (already scheduled)
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 NC State (already scheduled)

Automatic qualifier play-ins

No. 16 Lehigh vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M (already scheduled)
No. 16 Howard vs. No. 16 UMBC (already scheduled)
No. 16 Queens vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 16 Furman vs. No. 16 Siena
No. 15 Kennesaw State vs. No. 15 Wright State
No. 15 Idaho vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

As part of expanding the field, the expected format also would send more automatic qualifiers into the play-in round and move the majority of AQs down the seed list. Queens and Furman, which were No. 15 seeds, slide down to the No. 16 line and have to play just to earn their likely shellacking in the Round of 64.

You’d also see substantial reshuffling in terms of matchups throughout the bracket as a result. Across the board, mid-major AQs that don’t have to play in the “First 12” get knocked down a seed line. That means tougher first-round matchups for potential Cinderellas like Hofstra, McNeese and High Point.

Want a look at the full new bracket? As many matchups as possible from the committee’s work were preserved in order for it to be as close to how the committee would have drawn it up as possible.

East Region

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Furman/Siena
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Indiana/Oklahoma
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 McNeese State
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State/Wright State

West Region

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Queens/LIU
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Oklahoma State/Virginia Tech
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Arizona State/California
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 NC State/Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Hawai’i
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Penn

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard/UMBC
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 South Florida
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Northern Iowa
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 SMU/Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 North Dakota State

South Region

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Akron
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Auburn/San Diego State
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 California Baptist
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho/Tennessee State

More March Madness from Sports Illustrated

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