Bowl Projections: Predicting the playoff, other bowls after Week 10

0:53 | College Football
A new number one atop College Football Playoff rankings?
Tuesday November 4th, 2014

Our latest bowl projections feature the same College Football Playoff field as last week, albeit with a twist.

After Florida State’s 42-31 comeback win over Louisville on Thursday night, the Seminoles are looking more and more like the No. 1 team in the country. That’s where we have them slotted this week, and that’d likely give the ‘Noles the Sugar Bowl spot in the semifinal, with No. 2 Mississippi State heading out to Pasadena. The rest of the New Year’s Six, however, look quite different than our projections from a week ago.

BECHT: Bubble Watch: Sizing up contenders' playoff résumés

Before moving forward, a quick reminder on how this all works. The selection committee fills the two semifinal bowls based on its final rankings. It then rounds out the four non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, while fulfilling certain contractual obligations, such as pitting an ACC team against an SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl. The remaining teams are then fed into each league’s contract bowls. If a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams, bowls can invite replacement teams from other leagues.

This season the ACC, Big Ten and SEC have each pooled a select number of bowls together and will decide where to place teams. While the Big 12 and Pac-12 use a more straightforward method -- the Pac-12’s No. 2 choice would go to the Alamo Bowl, the No. 3 to the Holiday Bowl, etc. -- the process for the other three Power Five leagues is less structured. For instance, the ACC’s No. 2 choice will go to the Russell Athletic Bowl, but teams Nos. 3-6 can land anywhere among the Sun, Belk, Music City/Taxslayer or Pinstripe bowls.

Keep in mind, “Pac-12 No. 2” doesn't mean the Pac-12’s second-place team. Fan travel and geographical location factor into bowl selection as much as conference standings. Thus, leagues aren't obligated to fill bowls based on records.

STAPLES: Best/worst playoff scenarios for Power Five leagues

Bowl

Date

Location

Matchup

Pick

Peach

Dec. 31

Atlanta

TBD vs. TBD

Auburn vs. E. Carolina

Fiesta

Dec. 31

Glendale, Ariz.

TBD vs. TBD

Ole Miss vs. Kansas State

Orange

Dec. 31

Miami

ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND

Duke vs. Alabama

Cotton

Jan. 1

Arlington, Texas

TBD vs. TBD

Notre Dame vs. Mich. St.

Rose (semifinal)

Jan. 1

Pasadena, Calif.

TBD vs. TBD

Miss. State vs. Oregon

Sugar (semifinal)

Jan. 1

New Orleans

TBD vs. TBD

Florida State vs. TCU

Bowl

Date

Location

Matchup

Pick

New Orleans

Dec. 20

New Orleans

MWC vs. Sun Belt

Colo. State vs. Ark. State

New Mexico

Dec. 20

Albuquerque, N.M.

MAC vs. MWC

La. Tech vs. Nevada

Las Vegas

Dec. 20

Las Vegas

MWC vs. Pac-12

Boise State vs. Stanford

Idaho Potato

Dec. 20

Boise, Idaho

MAC vs. MWC

NIU vs. San Diego State

Camellia

Dec. 20

Montgomery, Ala.

MAC vs. Sun Belt

W. Michigan vs. S. Ala.

Miami Beach

Dec. 22

Miami

AAC vs. BYU

Memphis vs. BYU

Boca Raton

Dec. 23

Boca Raton, Fla.

C-USA vs. MAC

Rice vs. C. Michigan

Poinsettia

Dec. 23

San Diego

MWC vs. Navy

Utah State vs. Navy

Bahamas

Dec. 24

Nassau, Bahamas

C-USA vs. MAC

Middle Tenn. vs. Akron

Hawaii

Dec. 24

Honolulu

C-USA vs. MWC

UTEP vs. Air Force

Heart of Dallas

Dec. 26

Dallas

Big Ten vs. C-USA

Minnesota vs. Marshall

Quick Lane

Dec. 26

Detroit

ACC vs. Big Ten

Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers

Bitcoin

Dec. 26

St. Petersburg

AAC vs. ACC

Houston vs. Virginia

Military

Dec. 27

Annapolis, Md.

AAC vs. ACC

UCF vs. UNC

Sun

Dec. 27

El Paso, Texas

ACC vs. Pac-12

Louisville vs. Arizona

Independence

Dec. 27

Shreveport, La.

ACC vs. SEC

NC State vs. Washington*

Pinstripe

Dec. 27

Bronx, N.Y.

ACC vs. Big Ten

BC vs. Maryland

Holiday

Dec. 27

San Diego

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Wisconsin vs. USC

Liberty

Dec. 29

Memphis

Big 12 vs. SEC

WVU vs. Tennessee

Russell Athletic

Dec. 29

Orlando, Fla.

ACC vs. Big 12

Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Texas

Dec. 29

Houston

Big 12 vs. SEC

Okla. St. vs. Texas A&M

Music City

Dec. 30

Nashville

ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC

Miami vs. Georgia

Belk

Dec. 30

Charlotte, N.C.

ACC vs. SEC

Ga. Tech vs. S. Carolina

San Francisco

Dec. 30

Santa Clara, Calif.

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Iowa vs. UCLA

Citrus

Jan. 1

Orlando, Fla.

Big Ten vs. SEC

Nebraska vs. LSU

Outback

Jan. 1

Tampa, Fla.

Big Ten vs. SEC

Ohio State vs. Missouri

Armed Forces

Jan. 2

Fort Worth, Texas

AAC vs. Army

Cincinnati vs. Cal*

TaxSlayer

Jan. 2

Jacksonville, Fla.

ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC

Penn State vs. Arkansas

Alamo

Jan. 2

San Antonio

Big 12 vs. Pac-12

Baylor vs. Arizona State

Cactus

Jan. 2

Tempe, Ariz.

Big 12 vs. Pac-12

Ohio* vs. Utah

Birmingham

Jan. 3

Birmingham, Ala.

AAC vs. SEC

Temple vs. Florida

GoDaddy

Jan. 4

Mobile, Ala.

MAC vs. Sun Belt

BGSU vs. UL-Laf.

* -- Replacement team

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