There is another change at the top of SI.com’s bowl projections.
Alabama, which controls its destiny in the College Football Playoff race after edging LSU 20-13 in overtime on Saturday, could upend Mississippi State this week and defeat Auburn on Nov. 29. That would be enough to push the Crimson Tide into a semifinal spot at No. 2. Meanwhile, if Baylor and TCU both win out -- a distinct possibility -- the Bears would get the nod for a playoff berth, at least in these projections, thanks to a 61-58 head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs on Oct. 11. Baylor destroyed Oklahoma 48-14 in Norman on Saturday, but it still must host Kansas State on Dec. 6.
• STAPLES: Could the selection committee have a style bias?
Before moving forward, a quick reminder on how this all works. The selection committee fills the two semifinal bowls based on its final rankings. It then rounds out the four non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, while fulfilling certain contractual obligations, such as pitting an ACC team against an SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl. The remaining teams are then fed into each league’s contract bowls. If a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams, bowls can invite replacement teams from other leagues.
This season the ACC, Big Ten and SEC have each pooled a select number of bowls together and will decide where to place teams. While the Big 12 and Pac-12 use a more straightforward method -- the Pac-12’s No. 2 choice would go to the Alamo Bowl, the No. 3 to the Holiday Bowl, etc. -- the process for the other three Power Five leagues is less structured. For instance, the ACC’s No. 2 choice will go to the Russell Athletic Bowl, but teams Nos. 3-6 can land anywhere among the Sun, Belk, Music City/Taxslayer or Pinstripe bowls.
Keep in mind, “Pac-12 No. 2” doesn't mean the Pac-12’s second-place team. Fan travel and geographical location factor into bowl selection as much as conference standings. Thus, leagues aren't obligated to fill bowls based on records.
| Bowl | DATE | LOCATION | MATCHUP | PICK |
| Peach | Dec. 31 | Atlanta | TBD vs. TBD | Auburn vs. Colo. State |
| Fiesta | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Ariz. | TBD vs. TBD | Ariz. State vs. Mich. St. |
| Orange | Dec. 31 | Miami | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND | Duke vs. Miss. State |
| Cotton | Jan. 1 | Arlington, Texas | TBD vs. TBD | TCU vs. Ohio State |
| Rose (semifinal) | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | TBD vs. TBD | Alabama vs. Baylor |
| Sugar (semifinal) | Jan. 1 | New Orleans | TBD vs. TBD | Florida State vs. Oregon |
| bowl | date | Location | Matchup | Pick |
| New Orleans | Dec. 20 | New Orleans | MWC vs. Sun Belt | Temple* vs. Ark. State |
| New Mexico | Dec. 20 | Albuquerque, N.M. | C-USA vs. MWC | La. Tech vs. Nevada |
| Las Vegas | Dec. 20 | Las Vegas | MWC vs. Pac-12 | Boise State vs. Stanford |
| Idaho Potato | Dec. 20 | Boise, Idaho | MAC vs. MWC | BGSU vs. SDSU |
| Camellia | Dec. 20 | Montgomery, Ala. | MAC vs. Sun Belt | Toledo vs. So. Alabama |
| Miami Beach | Dec. 22 | Miami | AAC vs. BYU | Memphis vs. BYU |
| Boca Raton | Dec. 23 | Boca Raton, Fla. | C-USA vs. MAC | Rice vs. Ohio |
| Poinsettia | Dec. 23 | San Diego | MWC vs. Navy | Utah State vs. Navy |
| Bahamas | Dec. 24 | Nassau, Bahamas | C-USA vs. MAC | Middle Tenn. vs. Akron |
| Hawaii | Dec. 24 | Honolulu | C-USA vs. MWC | UTEP vs. Air Force |
| Heart of Dallas | Dec. 26 | Dallas | Big Ten vs. C-USA | California* vs. Marshall |
| Quick Lane | Dec. 26 | Detroit | ACC vs. Big Ten | Pitt vs. W. Kentucky* |
| Bitcoin | Dec. 26 | St. Petersburg | AAC vs. ACC | Cincinnati vs. Virginia |
| Military | Dec. 27 | Annapolis, Md. | AAC vs. ACC | UCF vs. Miami |
| Sun | Dec. 27 | El Paso, Texas | ACC vs. Pac-12 | Louisville vs. Utah |
| Independence | Dec. 27 | Shreveport, La. | ACC vs. SEC | NC State vs. UAB* |
| Pinstripe | Dec. 27 | Bronx, N.Y. | ACC vs. Big Ten | BC vs. Maryland |
| Holiday | Dec. 27 | San Diego | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Minnesota vs. Arizona |
| Liberty | Dec. 29 | Memphis | Big 12 vs. SEC | West Virginia vs. Georgia |
| Russell Athletic | Dec. 29 | Orlando, Fla. | ACC vs. Big 12 | Notre Dame vs. Okla. |
| Texas | Dec. 29 | Houston | Big 12 vs. SEC | Okla. St. vs. Texas A&M |
| Music City | Dec. 30 | Nashville | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC | Clemson vs. Tennessee |
| Belk | Dec. 30 | Charlotte, N.C. | ACC vs. SEC | Ga. Tech vs. So. Carolina |
| San Francisco | Dec. 30 | Santa Clara, Calif. | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Iowa vs. USC |
| Citrus | Jan. 1 | Orlando, Fla. | Big Ten vs. SEC | Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss |
| Outback | Jan. 1 | Tampa, Fla. | Big Ten vs. SEC | Nebraska vs. LSU |
| Armed Forces | Jan. 2 | Fort Worth, Texas | ACC vs. Army | Houston vs. W. Michigan* |
| TaxSlayer | Jan. 2 | Jacksonville, Fla. | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC | Penn State vs. Missouri |
| Alamo | Jan. 2 | San Antonio | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 | Kansas State vs. UCLA |
| Cactus | Jan. 2 | Tempe, Ariz. | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 | C. Michigan* vs. Wash. |
| Birmingham | Jan. 3 | Birmingham, Ala. | AAC vs. SEC | Florida vs. E. Carolina |
| GoDaddy | Jan. 4 | Mobile, Ala. | MAC vs. Sun Belt | NIU vs. UL-Lafayette |
* -- Replacement team
