There is another change at the top of SI.com’s bowl projections.
Alabama, which controls its destiny in the College Football Playoff race after edging LSU 20-13 in overtime on Saturday, could upend Mississippi State this week and defeat Auburn on Nov. 29. That would be enough to push the Crimson Tide into a semifinal spot at No. 2. Meanwhile, if Baylor and TCU both win out -- a distinct possibility -- the Bears would get the nod for a playoff berth, at least in these projections, thanks to a 61-58 head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs on Oct. 11. Baylor destroyed Oklahoma 48-14 in Norman on Saturday, but it still must host Kansas State on Dec. 6.
• STAPLES: Could the selection committee have a style bias?
Before moving forward, a quick reminder on how this all works. The selection committee fills the two semifinal bowls based on its final rankings. It then rounds out the four non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, while fulfilling certain contractual obligations, such as pitting an ACC team against an SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl. The remaining teams are then fed into each league’s contract bowls. If a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams, bowls can invite replacement teams from other leagues.
This season the ACC, Big Ten and SEC have each pooled a select number of bowls together and will decide where to place teams. While the Big 12 and Pac-12 use a more straightforward method -- the Pac-12’s No. 2 choice would go to the Alamo Bowl, the No. 3 to the Holiday Bowl, etc. -- the process for the other three Power Five leagues is less structured. For instance, the ACC’s No. 2 choice will go to the Russell Athletic Bowl, but teams Nos. 3-6 can land anywhere among the Sun, Belk, Music City/Taxslayer or Pinstripe bowls.
Keep in mind, “Pac-12 No. 2” doesn't mean the Pac-12’s second-place team. Fan travel and geographical location factor into bowl selection as much as conference standings. Thus, leagues aren't obligated to fill bowls based on records.
|
Bowl |
DATE |
LOCATION |
MATCHUP |
PICK |
|
Peach |
Dec. 31 |
Atlanta |
TBD vs. TBD |
Auburn vs. Colo. State |
|
Fiesta |
Dec. 31 |
Glendale, Ariz. |
TBD vs. TBD |
Ariz. State vs. Mich. St. |
|
Orange |
Dec. 31 |
Miami |
ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
Duke vs. Miss. State |
|
Cotton |
Jan. 1 |
Arlington, Texas |
TBD vs. TBD |
TCU vs. Ohio State |
|
Rose (semifinal) |
Jan. 1 |
Pasadena, Calif. |
TBD vs. TBD |
Alabama vs. Baylor |
|
Sugar (semifinal) |
Jan. 1 |
New Orleans |
TBD vs. TBD |
Florida State vs. Oregon |
|
bowl |
date |
Location |
Matchup |
Pick |
|
New Orleans |
Dec. 20 |
New Orleans |
MWC vs. Sun Belt |
Temple* vs. Ark. State |
|
New Mexico |
Dec. 20 |
Albuquerque, N.M. |
C-USA vs. MWC |
La. Tech vs. Nevada |
|
Las Vegas |
Dec. 20 |
Las Vegas |
MWC vs. Pac-12 |
Boise State vs. Stanford |
|
Idaho Potato |
Dec. 20 |
Boise, Idaho |
MAC vs. MWC |
BGSU vs. SDSU |
|
Camellia |
Dec. 20 |
Montgomery, Ala. |
MAC vs. Sun Belt |
Toledo vs. So. Alabama |
|
Miami Beach |
Dec. 22 |
Miami |
AAC vs. BYU |
Memphis vs. BYU |
|
Boca Raton |
Dec. 23 |
Boca Raton, Fla. |
C-USA vs. MAC |
Rice vs. Ohio |
|
Poinsettia |
Dec. 23 |
San Diego |
MWC vs. Navy |
Utah State vs. Navy |
|
Bahamas |
Dec. 24 |
Nassau, Bahamas |
C-USA vs. MAC |
Middle Tenn. vs. Akron |
|
Hawaii |
Dec. 24 |
Honolulu |
C-USA vs. MWC |
UTEP vs. Air Force |
|
Heart of Dallas |
Dec. 26 |
Dallas |
Big Ten vs. C-USA |
California* vs. Marshall |
|
Quick Lane |
Dec. 26 |
Detroit |
ACC vs. Big Ten |
Pitt vs. W. Kentucky* |
|
Bitcoin |
Dec. 26 |
St. Petersburg |
AAC vs. ACC |
Cincinnati vs. Virginia |
|
Military |
Dec. 27 |
Annapolis, Md. |
AAC vs. ACC |
UCF vs. Miami |
|
Sun |
Dec. 27 |
El Paso, Texas |
ACC vs. Pac-12 |
Louisville vs. Utah |
|
Independence |
Dec. 27 |
Shreveport, La. |
ACC vs. SEC |
NC State vs. UAB* |
|
Pinstripe |
Dec. 27 |
Bronx, N.Y. |
ACC vs. Big Ten |
BC vs. Maryland |
|
Holiday |
Dec. 27 |
San Diego |
Big Ten vs. Pac-12 |
Minnesota vs. Arizona |
|
Liberty |
Dec. 29 |
Memphis |
Big 12 vs. SEC |
West Virginia vs. Georgia |
|
Russell Athletic |
Dec. 29 |
Orlando, Fla. |
ACC vs. Big 12 |
Notre Dame vs. Okla. |
|
Texas |
Dec. 29 |
Houston |
Big 12 vs. SEC |
Okla. St. vs. Texas A&M |
|
Music City |
Dec. 30 |
Nashville |
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC |
Clemson vs. Tennessee |
|
Belk |
Dec. 30 |
Charlotte, N.C. |
ACC vs. SEC |
Ga. Tech vs. So. Carolina |
|
San Francisco |
Dec. 30 |
Santa Clara, Calif. |
Big Ten vs. Pac-12 |
Iowa vs. USC |
|
Citrus |
Jan. 1 |
Orlando, Fla. |
Big Ten vs. SEC |
Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss |
|
Outback |
Jan. 1 |
Tampa, Fla. |
Big Ten vs. SEC |
Nebraska vs. LSU |
|
Armed Forces |
Jan. 2 |
Fort Worth, Texas |
ACC vs. Army |
Houston vs. W. Michigan* |
|
TaxSlayer |
Jan. 2 |
Jacksonville, Fla. |
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC |
Penn State vs. Missouri |
|
Alamo |
Jan. 2 |
San Antonio |
Big 12 vs. Pac-12 |
Kansas State vs. UCLA |
|
Cactus |
Jan. 2 |
Tempe, Ariz. |
Big 12 vs. Pac-12 |
C. Michigan* vs. Wash. |
|
Birmingham |
Jan. 3 |
Birmingham, Ala. |
AAC vs. SEC |
Florida vs. E. Carolina |
|
GoDaddy |
Jan. 4 |
Mobile, Ala. |
MAC vs. Sun Belt |
NIU vs. UL-Lafayette |
* -- Replacement team
