Assessing Lincoln Riley and Other College Football Coaches on the Hot Seat for 2026

The fifth-year USC head coach’s job security could be one of the key storylines this season. Here’s a look at the coaching landscape and who could be on the move.

If USC gets off to a slow start, questions about coach Lincoln Riley’s future could become a lingering storyline this season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over the course of talking season in college football, there have been a variety of interesting comments about the state of the game.

One, in particular, raised an eyebrow.

“Next year USC, for sure, will have the most expensive roster,” a power-conference head coach, who came up against the Trojans for a few players, says of the 2027 team in Los Angeles. “Going to be interesting for [Lincoln Riley].”

Interesting might be understating it as the fifth-year USC head coach’s job security could be one of the key storylines in the sport—with the potential to significantly impact the coaching market depending on how the Trojans’ season transpires. 

Riley has carried an interesting swagger throughout the offseason, and there are plenty of reasons to buy into the confidence surrounding the cardinal and gold. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is a top Heisman Trophy candidate, Hall of Fame former TCU head coach Gary Patterson is in charge of the defense, a beautiful new football building is operational and a revamped personnel department has elevated the roster for both now and into the future. There are no excuses not to win after spending more than nine figures on the football program in short order, which is deftly acknowledged by those involved. 

“It’s what it’s supposed to feel like here,” Riley said in July. “Every year I expect to win, I expect us to win. I expect us to compete for and win championships. That doesn’t change.”

With great expectations comes great pressure. What happens if their coach—who won double-digit games four times in five years at Oklahoma but has hit that mark only once at USC—fails to live up to the high bar set for 2026? 

The potential for USC or other massive gigs coming open could reshape a projected slower coaching carousel this year. After seeing 30 jobs turn over in the past year and 29 the year before that, more than 40% of college football programs have made a change recently.

However, there’s always potential for changes amid a new era for coaches and their job security. No buyout is considered untouchable anymore after four coaches were dismissed carrying buyouts of more than $30 million last year. More schools are putting additional money into a program in hopes of pushing out a decision on their leader for another season, but that tends to come with an implication that it’s time to win or face the pink slip. 

The overnight success Indiana had also resonates, amping up expectations for coaches who prefer to build linearly year over year. The escape hatch of the much improved lifestyle in the NFL also appeals, with several Group of 6 coaches not thinking twice about becoming a position coach at the next level.

“The calculus has changed a lot, just in the past few years,” one veteran athletic director says. “I’ve been surprised by some moves lately, but I really shouldn’t be.”

Here’s a look at the coaching landscape across college football going into the season and who could be on the move.

The seat is in flames

Mike Norvell, Florida State

The Seminoles seriously debated making a change late last season but brought Norvell back to see if he can wiggle out of the program’s current malaise (7–17 since back-to-back top-10 finishes). The more than $51 million buyout is massive—particularly for a school which doesn’t have the mega-donors others do, in addition to a massive tab from facilities upgrades—but enough apathy setting in may make that moot. A brutal early schedule and a conveniently timed off week after playing rival Miami in mid-October is something to circle in Tallahassee. 

Dave Aranda, Baylor

Aranda is not putting his head in the sand and has made notable changes the last few years in an attempt to get the Bears back to being competitive in the Big 12. There’s a lot riding on the arm of new QB DJ Lagway—a five-star recruit who did not develop at Florida—and a roster which saw increased investment this offseason. Athletic director Doug McNamee is new to add to the pressure and simply making a bowl game is unlikely to earn the brilliant defensive mind an eighth year in Waco, Texas.

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

If you had to predict Fickell’s tenure when he was hired, it would be unlikely to come anywhere close to what the reality has been in Madison, Wis. Sure there have been numerous injuries and a slate of brutal schedules, but it’s been so much worse than anybody expected under the coach who took Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff. Signs of positive progress will be taken under advisement with Badgers brass, but the presence of new athletic director Shawn Eichorst and multiple really good candidates with ties to the state (Jason Eck, Sean Lewis, Jake Dickert, Lance Leipold, etc.) mean things are quite tenuous.

Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin tenure has been so much worse than expected. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Bill Belichick, North Carolina 

The initial splash from hiring the greatest NFL coach in modern history has worn off and Belichick’s handpicked general manager being suspended looks even worse than the team’s pivot to signing younger players for a bad roster. Paying a $10 million buyout after just two years and hitting the reset button can’t be ruled out depending on results, but don’t be shocked if both sides try to find a way to save face on the way out the door.

Mike Locksley, Maryland

There’s lots of optimism about a turnaround in 2026 with QB Malik Washington showing promise as a true freshman and the most returning production of anybody in the Big Ten. But a pair of 4–8 campaigns, a 37–49 overall record, an AD who didn’t hire the coach and a modest buyout still calls Locksley’s status into question. The school opted to bring him back late last year and increased the amount of money spent on the roster as a show of faith, yet that only will be rewarded with another season if the Terps can get back to a bowl game and not collapse again late in the fall.

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Pressure is on

Lincoln Riley, USC

Everything is in place for the Trojans to contend in the Big Ten while making the playoff this season and in the near future. Falling shy of such goals, or perhaps even matching last season’s nine wins, will lead to a fascinating set of questions for the administration and several key boosters given the disconnect between results and how much has been spent under Riley. The buyout is still closer to Jimbo Fisher territory at more than $50 million, which complicates things but will be far from the only factor considered.

Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

The Bulldogs were much more competitive in Lebby’s second season, but 1–15 in league play is starkly unsustainable—in the SEC, and especially with archrival Mississippi riding high. There is a bit of a disconnect between what Mississippi State fans think the program should be doing with what levels of investment that will take and AD Zac Selmon certainly wouldn’t want to make an early move on somebody he hired early in his tenure. Expectations are modest, but if they’re not met, more turnover could arrive in StarkVegas.

Jeff Lebby is 1–15 in SEC play, a stark record especially compared to rival Ole Miss. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Relative to history, Beamer has done a quality job with a pair of Top 25 finishes and a winning record overall. The problem: It’s been a roller coaster of results with massive variance year to year and plenty of distrust after going from preseason top 15 to 4–8 overall in 2025. It helps that Clemson is also in a down cycle, but if Beamer can’t take a good step forward with All-American-caliber talent, such as edge rusher Dylan Stewart and quarterback LaNorris Sellers, things could get interesting under an administration that didn’t hire the upbeat head coach.

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Need signs of life

Bill O’Brien, Boston College

The Eagles are not really in a position to make any changes and bumped up the resources available to O’Brien this year by quite a bit in order to hopefully head off needing to make a move. Things were absolutely brutal last season though, and a difficult schedule may wind up forcing a change or ushering their head coach back to the NFL in some way.

Deion Sanders, Colorado

Someone from a search firm called the Buffs’ situation one of the more fascinating in the country. To start, there’s Sanders’s health, which will likely be the driving factor in remaining in Boulder. It would be unsurprising if he simply decides to step away from full-time coaching after 2026 as a result, even before the school will start to consider the diminishing returns on the field from having a legendary player on the headset. A new AD (Fernando Lovo) is another factor to keep in mind.

Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati

The record has improved in each of Satterfield’s three seasons (3–9 in 2023 to 5–7 in ’24 to 7–6 last year), but the slides the program has had in the back half of the schedule each time are certainly working against him.

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Slowly simmering

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

The head coach in Tuscaloosa is always on the hot seat, and Tide fans have not come around on DeBoer. The administration wants no part in any potential change (see his new seven-year contract approved in April), but you never can rule anything out with Alabama given where expectations are.

Kalen DeBoer has a new seven-year contract, but the fan base hasn’t come around on him. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Dabo Swinney, Clemson

The program has backslid in recent years, and far more than Tigers fans are questioning if Swinney is still the right guy to turn things around in an NIL/transfer portal era. It would be an expensive change, but something that continues to inch closer to reality. 

Dave Doeren, NC State

This is, remarkably, Year 14 for Doeren in Raleigh, making him the fourth-longest-tenured coach in the country. That’s a long time in one place and, despite doing a quality job with remarkable consistency, is a really long time in one place without a division or conference title. A segment of the fan base is itching for change.

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Potentially on the move

Jake Dickert, Wake Forest

Few coaches do more with less than Dickert, who flipped the Demon Deacons around quickly after navigating choppy waters at Washington State. The Wisconsin native whose wife is from the Madison area will be a prime candidate for any opening in the midwest. 

P.J. Fleck, Minnesota

Fleck’s personality is not for everyone, but he’s notably overachieved with the Gophers and raised the program’s floor significantly. It’s been a full decade in charge in the Twin Cities, and after often coming up as a name connected to various openings, it could be an ideal time for a jump to a bigger job if 2026 results are good.

P.J. Fleck could be a top candidate if any high-profile job open. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jeff Brohm, Louisville

The Cardinals signed the alum to a well-deserved new contract extension this spring but talks were drawn out longer than they should have been—and his buyout to leave remains meager. He won’t take just any job given the connections to the program, but if a true, top-of-the-sport blueblood were to seriously come after him, there may be a decision to make for Brohm. 

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Group of 6 coaches on the hot seat

• Major Applewhite (South Alabama)
• Troy Calhoun (Air Force)
• Jeff Choate (Nevada)
• Chris Creighton (Eastern Michigan)
• Sonny Cumbie (Louisiana Tech)
• Clay Helton (Georgia Southern)
• Phil Longo (Sam Houston)
• Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee)
• Dell McGee (Georgia State)
• Tony Sanchez (New Mexico State)
• Jay Sawvel (Wyoming)

Group of 6 coaches getting a call from a search firm

• Spencer Danielson (Boise State)
• Matt Entz (Fresno State)
• Jason Eck (New Mexico)
• G.J. Kinne (Texas State)
• Sean Lewis (San Diego State)
• Jeff Monken (Army)
• Dan Mullen (UNLV)
• Lance Taylor (Western Michigan)
• Jeff Traylor (UTSA)

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