Buy or Sell: Are These Surprising Programs True College Football Playoff Contenders?

’Tis the season for fan angst and hand-wringing over committee decisions in college football. That’s right: November has arrived and that means it’s time for the College Football Playoff committee to get together and begin carving out the CFP rankings on a weekly basis until the final bracket is revealed on Dec. 6.

There are plenty of teams, such as Miami and Georgia, who prognosticators expected to be in the mix. But, in a season filled with chaos and carnage, there are equally as many teams, like UCLA, who many didn’t expect to be very much in the CFP conversation this late in the season.

There are five teams in particular who stick out as surprising CFP contenders. Let’s assess each team’s mettle, resume and remaining path in an attempt to buy or sell their CFP stock.

UCLA Bruins

The Bruins don’t have the strongest résumé—a sloppy, 17–15 win over then-No. 13 Oregon back in October constitutes the program’s biggest win of the year—but they make up for it in two distinct ways. They win and possess one of the nation’s most repeatable formulas for doing so. The 8–0 Bruins, one of three undefeated teams left in the FBS, boast the nation’s 12th-best rushing attack, rank fifth in opponent points per game and are tied for first in the country in total takeaways.

There’s the potential for a Florida State-esque snub here if the Bruins stumble, given that fill-in quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, while effective in his three starts, is largely unproven at the FBS level. But first-year coach Bob Chesney is hellbent on helping his team avoid such a letdown performance, and it’s hard to imagine one coming given the Bruins’ current level of play. Potential wins against Minnesota, who pushed the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers to the brink, and USC, who just defeated Ohio State, would give the Bruins a boost in the resume department.

Verdict: Buy

Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky’s résumé is already as strong as the contents of the flasks coach Will Stein wanted fans to sneak in for a September home game against Alabama, with the potential to become even stronger. Speaking of beverages, however, the Wildcats’ win against then-No. 9 Texas A&M has aged like milk, though the program is 2–1 against teams currently ranked in the Top 25 and has three such games coming up on its schedule, beginning with Saturday’s tough road date with Tennessee. ESPN’s Football Power Index isn’t too high on the Wildcats, who check in at 26th, and Kentucky has lived dangerously with three wins in one-score games. In other words, the potential for the Wildcats to be cannibalized by the SEC is there, especially in light of Kentucky’s double-digit point loss to Alabama.

But buying into the Wildcats is as much about the clean quarterback play of Kenny Minchey and the cohesiveness of the team’s portal additions as it is about Stein himself. He told reporters at SEC Media Days he believed the team could win because of him. He’s proved it both in his team-building and decisions on the field, such as having the cojones to go for two and the win in overtime in back-to-back weeks against South Carolina and LSU. Win out, or lose just one game down the stretch, and Kentucky likely makes it to the CFP as one of a few representatives from the SEC.

Verdict: Buy

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Demon Deacons have darn-near everything you could want in a CFP contender—a highly-efficient offense, some of the best quarterback play in the country from Gio Lopez and a capable defense that can stop the run and rush the passer—except for a strong résumé. Wake Forest’s win over Louisville hasn’t quite aged as well as they’d hoped, and its last four wins have come against the bottom-half of the ACC. Heck, one of the Demon Deacons’ better feats is that it pushed No. 1 Miami back in September. Still, Wake Forest can only play who’s on their schedule, and they pulverized those squads by a combined score of 187–31 in four October games. Pretty, pretty good, as Larry David would say.

Plus, chances to bite back against fraud allegations will arrive in the form of conference games against SMU and Duke. Win those and avoid a late-season stumble, and the Demon Deacons could be in. The game against the Mustangs, who feature efficient passing and red zone attacks, looms as a particularly tough test given that the Demon Deacons rank last in opponent completion percentage and have struggled defensively in the red zone.

Plus, my fear is that Wake Forest will get SEC-ified by the committee—and we already saw this in play Tuesday night—which may go gaga over, say, a three-loss Ole Miss team compared to a two-loss Wake Forest squad. The best bet for the Demon Deacons is winning the ACC championship game for a coveted autobid. Outside of that possibility, I’m a bit skeptical, despite how flaming hot they are, that this team can win out and even more skeptical that they make the playoff as a two-loss outfit

Verdict: Sell

New Mexico Lobos

How about those Lobos?! Ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time ever after avoiding a near-disastrous loss to San José State, the Lobos are likely in the on-deck circle behind No. 25 Boise State for the autobid that goes to the highest ranked Group of 6 team.

The G6’s version of UCLA, New Mexico combines the nation’s top scoring defense with a potent, two-pronged rushing attack, making the Lobos a time of possession monster, particularly on the road where they’ve lost just one game this year (at Oklahoma). Add in New Mexico’s above-average pass rush and astonishing 25 takeaways, second in the country, and it’s easy to see why this team has just one loss.

It’s possible the Lobos’ subpar quarterback play comes back to bite them—it very nearly did against the Spartans—but Jason Eck’s bunch have a shot at making the playoff if they win out against the tougher portion of their schedule, albeit one that lines up well with UNM’s defensive strengths. Plus, should the injury to Boise State starting QB Maddux Madsen cost him a week or two, the Broncos could be ripe for an upset against the likes of Colorado State or Oregon State. If there’s a sticking point here, besides a potential upset down the stretch, it’s the Lobos’ weaker strength of schedule overall.

Verdict: Buy

UTSA Roadrunners

In a season of chaos, the race for the Group of 6’s autobid into the CFP is heating up. And with both Boise State and New Mexico showing signs of vulnerability in Week 9, the Roadrunners are essentially a Broncos and Lobos misstep away from being in the driver’s seat for the CFP.

The catch? UTSA needs to win out, in addition to hoping for some help from their G6 brethren. The Roadrunners have a strong rushing attack paved by a capable offensive line, giving this team a solid floor offensively. Defensively, they do a great job of keeping plays in front of them and generating takeaways, though they’ve had a tendency to let teams stick around, leading to plenty of close calls in four of its wins which came by one score.

And more close calls could be on the way, with the high-octane passing attacks of Florida Atlantic and North Texas on the upcoming schedule. Roadrunners QB Owen McCown was able to keep pace in past high-scoring affairs vs. Colorado State and Navy, but any slip in his play could doom UTSA against these types of opponents. The door is open for UTSA, but only a smidgen.

Verdict: Sell

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