College Football Playoff Eliminator: One Conference Completely Out of Contention After Week 5

It was a quieter than normal weekend in terms of results that impacted the College Football Playoff race. That didn’t seem to be the case coming into the slate, but wound up playing out as several key contenders enhanced their résumés and only a few programs took a loss which saw them exit the grand postseason stage. As it stands, though, we saw the first conference play itself out of the running (sorry, Conference USA) and our first exits from the national title chase out of the Big 12.

With all that in mind, it’s time to examine just what the impact of all those results from the past weekend will have by entering The Eliminator—where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. Here’s where the field stands after Week 5.

College Football Playoff field after Week 5

Playoff locks

Zero teams (0% of the bracket)

Alive for a CFP bid

73 teams, 53% of FBS

ACC (11)
Big 12 (14)
Big Ten (13)
SEC (14)
Independent (1)
American (7)
Conference USA (0)
MAC (3)
Mountain West (3)
Pac-12 (3)
Sun Belt (4)

Teams eliminated after Week 5

Colorado
TCU
Illinois
Michigan State
Arkansas
Army
Delaware
Colorado State
Texas State
Marshall

Out of the playoff chase

65 teams, 47% of FBS

ACC (6)
Big 12 (2)
Big Ten (5)
SEC (2)
Independent (1)
American (7)
Conference USA (10)
MAC (10)
Mountain West (7)
Pac-12 (5)
Sun Belt (10)

ACC

Alive: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

It seems perfectly on brand for the ACC to see one aspiring program controversially lose a game it should have won (Virginia Tech) to a fellow conference contender (Pitt) that suffered an injury to its starting quarterback which will hamper its ability to win at a high level moving forward. Luckily both are still in the running to make it Charlotte for the league title game, where it appears everyone is playing to be runner-up to Miami based on the Hurricanes’ latest form.

Eliminated: California, Louisville

The Golden Bears losing to UNLV had to be incredibly humbling for new coach Tosh Lupoi, who may well have to make some staff changes on the offensive side of the ball if Cal wants to salvage the rest of this season with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at quarterback. As for the Cardinals, their inexplicable loss to NC State doesn’t fully rule them out of the ACC race just yet, but it does eliminate them from CFP at-large consideration. The best the team could do is go 9–3 this season and it seems unlikely that it will have more than one Top 25 win on its résumé come Selection Sunday (and even that would likely need SMU to keep winning enough to prevent a trip to the league title game). Given the way Louisville played, counting on this team to run the table even against a set of manageable opponents seems like too much to ask.

Out: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Syracuse

Big 12

Alive: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, West Virginia

The Big 12 was welcomed to the elimination club this weekend but still features more than half the conference with either zero losses or one loss on the season. Perhaps the most interesting team is Baylor after the Bears knocked over Arizona State to move to 2–0 in league play. Dave Aranda has not only helped cool his hot seat some, but the case could be made the Bears are a few inches away from 5–0 and sitting inside the top 20 of the polls, too.

Eliminated: Colorado, TCU

If you have three quarterbacks throwing passes, you typically don’t have a good one. If you don’t believe that, just ask the Buffs after getting blown out by Texas Tech in the third straight sloppy game for Deion Sanders’s team. Offensive issues are also at the heart of TCU’s struggles. The Horned Frogs have scored just 23 points in their two Big 12 losses and are now facing some bigger questions about Sonny Dykes’s tenure given their schedule sees them play a gauntlet the next two months.

Out: None

Big Ten

Alive: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

Iowa fans can’t be thrilled at seeing the Hawkeyes take their first loss of the year by letting Jeremiah Smith do whatever he wanted at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, but the good news is there’s still a pretty good path to the playoff ahead. Much of that is because the Big Ten West has been reincarnated this year, albeit with several intriguing programs who may start to make a case of their own about being in the committee’s Top 25 next month.

Eliminated: Illinois, Michigan State

Quite the past few weeks for the Illini, who saw their defensive coordinator shown the door after Ohio State beat them (understandable) and then promptly followed that up with a loss to Purdue (not understandable). At 0–2 in the league, they’re in the same boat as Michigan State in hoping a turnaround starts this weekend or else it’s uphill sledding to even make a bowl game.

Out: Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC

Alive: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

While it looks like Alabama, Georgia and Texas are all national title contenders, good luck sorting out the host of one-loss programs that sit in the standings behind them. Perhaps that will sort itself out among the six ranked teams that count themselves among that group (plus Kentucky, which should be ranked), but it does go to show you just how complicated the SEC is going to be this season.

Eliminated: Arkansas

Congrats to the Hogs for being the cure for Texas A&M’s offensive issues last week. Wonder if they’ll serve in the same role for Tennessee on Saturday.

Out: South Carolina

Independents

Alive: Notre Dame

Going on the road in rainy conditions is always cause for concern for Irish fans, but they didn’t need to be when CJ Carr is around to bail this team out whenever the case calls for it. Still, we won’t really know how good this group is for another two weeks when they make that trip out to Provo, Utah.

Eliminated: None

Out: UConn

American

Alive: Florida Atlantic, Memphis, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, Tulsa, UTSA

FAU might be one of the sneaky teams still in the CFP picture this season. The Owls are 4–1 with a lone loss to Florida and seem to have finally found their offensive groove the last few weeks. If they can keep winning, it sets up a very interesting run in early November against some of their fellow American contenders.

Eliminated: Army

The Black Knights love to find themselves in one-score games against FBS opposition this season, and unfortunately they came up on the wrong side against Louisiana Tech. That not only dropped them to .500 on the season, but firmly rules them out of the Group of 6 chase even if conference hopes remain alive.

Out: Charlotte, East Carolina, Navy, Rice, Temple, UAB

Conference USA

Alive: None

Eliminated: Delaware

Friday night’s 30–14 loss to Liberty not only knocked the Blue Hens out of the CFP discussion for good, but it also ended any faint hopes for Conference USA as it became the first full league on the outside looking in at the playoff. While it was without their starting quarterback, that result could be a factor in the Flames hosting Delaware down the road for a potential conference title game rematch depending on how the season goes from here as well.

Out: Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky

MAC

Alive: Toledo, UMass, Western Michigan

All good things must come to an end but not sure many saw Eastern Michigan being the one to end UMass’s quest for a perfect start to the season. Perhaps that was just written in the stars as soon as the entire College GameDay set picked the Minutemen to win in what must be a television first on Saturday.

Eliminated: None

Out: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Ohio, Sacramento State

Mountain West

Alive: Air Force, New Mexico, North Dakota State

All signs continue to point to Oct. 24 as being one of the biggest weekends the Mountain West has seen on the field in some time as the Bison travel to face the Lobos. Those two clearly look like the class of the conference so far in 2026, even as Air Force continues to ride high off its victory over Navy this past week.

Eliminated: None

Out: Hawai‘i, Nevada, Northern Illinois, San José State, UNLV, UTEP, Wyoming

Pac-12

Alive: Boise State, Fresno State, Oregon State

Original league member Oregon State might be one of the sneakiest turnaround stories in the country after it wiped the floor with Colorado State and has a pretty fun offense to watch. The Beavers are still among the group sitting behind Boise State in the pecking order, but the Broncos’ path to the Group of 6 bid at the end of the year appears not to be the effortless one some expected given how feisty the Pac-12 looks this season.

Eliminated: Colorado State, Texas State

What was worse, the Rams having to can their defensive coordinator midgame or the Bobcats blowing a game late to lose to a team with mumps? Either way, a rough pair of losses to see each program fall from Group of 6 contention.

Out: San Diego State, Utah State, Washington State

Sun Belt

Alive: Appalachian State, Georgia State, James Madison, Louisiana

The Sun Belt is flying under the radar with several teams off to good starts and looking like some good competition to James Madison in the form of both Georgia State and Louisiana. The Panthers just routed Old Dominion and might have something in QB Cameran Brown while the Ragin’ Cajuns have a chance to solidify their case as the class of the West Division with another win or two.

Eliminated: Marshall

The Thundering Herd were humbled by James Madison on Saturday to drop their second game of the season and eliminate their slim CFP aspirations for good. We’ll see just what the floor and ceiling for this team really is moving forward as they enter an October which will go a long way in seeing if a bowl game is in the cards this season.

Out: Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy

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