Forde-Yard Dash: The Winners and Losers of College Football’s Hot Seat in Week 5

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First Quarter: Save-Your-Job Saturday?

It was a big weekend for several men who are trying to coach their way off the hot seat and into another season (at least) at their current universities. Some others were not as fortunate. The Dash takes a quick look at who helped themselves Saturday, and who did not.

Mike Norvell (1), Florida State

Got his best win since 2023 on Saturday when the Seminoles walloped Virginia, 38–7. Quarterback Ashton Daniels ran for five touchdowns as Florida State (3–2) unloaded on a Cavaliers team that appears to be regressing to pre-2025 form. It’s hard to eradicate all the negativity that has surrounded Norvell’s program for two-plus seasons, but dominating a team that played in the ACC championship game last year—racking up more than twice as many yards as the Cavaliers—changes the conversation for at least a week.

What might really change the tenor in Tallahassee? Winning a road game. The Noles haven’t done that since Nov. 25, 2023. They visit struggling Louisville on Friday night, then bitter rival Miami on Oct. 17. One of those looks much more winnable than the other.

Norvell is still very expensive to buy out at a school that is not sitting on a pile of cash. If he can win seven or more games, financial expedience plus legitimate optimism might be enough to keep him around.

Dave Aranda (2), Baylor

The Bears’ first victory outside the state of Texas since Nov. 16, 2024, was an emphatic one—an absolute rout of Arizona State, 55–19. (The Sun Devils may regret their nine-day, College Station–London–Phoenix travel itinerary in September, because they don’t seem to have come back from it.) That win lifted Baylor to 4–1, and it should be noted that the loss was by a single point on a neutral field against Auburn when a two-point conversion attempt came up inches short with nine seconds left.

First-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, who had been in that role at Kansas State, has the Bears giving up fewer than half the points they allowed per game last season (14.2, down from 32.6). Quarterback DJ Lagway played his best game in a Baylor uniform against the Sun Devils, throwing for 306 yards and four touchdowns.

Baylor might be favored in its next four games before hitting a closing gauntlet of BYU, Texas Tech and Houston. By then, despite being fired in the court of public opinion several times over the last few years, Aranda may have solidified support for an eighth season.

Dave Doeren (3), North Carolina State

Doeren was being pilloried after three games—an opening blowout against Virginia and the inexplicable loss to Vanderbilt sandwiched around an empty-calorie victory over Richmond. Since then, the Wolfpack have won consecutive ebb-and-flow games, over Appalachian State and Louisville. State’s offense has been explosive and its defense has made just enough stops.

The Tobacco Road games may determine both the final trajectory of NC State’s season and Doeren’s approval rating. They host a Wake Forest team that has become a handful Saturday, and undefeated Duke on Nov. 7. The season ends at North Carolina. It would not be good to wind up third or lower in that particular pecking order.

Luke Fickell (4), Wisconsin

The Badgers have an open date this week, which might have been the spot on the schedule when fans were anticipating a Fickell firing before the season began. Instead, they’re 4–1 and have their first Big Ten winning streak in two years. Michigan State is bad and Penn State might be, too, but Wisconsin has gone six straight quarters without giving up a touchdown and is resembling the Fickell operation we saw at Cincinnati.

The rest of October will probably tell the Wisconsin story: at UCLA on Oct. 17, USC in Camp Randall on Oct. 24 and at Iowa on Oct. 31. Win all three and the Badgers are a playoff contender. Win two out of three and the season is trending toward success. Lose all three and Fickell is right back where he started the year.

Matt Rhule (5), Nebraska

The Cornhuskers have done what the schedule allowed them to do to this point—handily defeat bad teams. They’re 5–0 with every victory by at least 18 points, but the teams they’ve beaten are a combined 0–10 against power-conference competition.

The season starts Saturday, when Indiana comes to Lincoln, Neb. That will be a yardstick for Rhule’s program, which lost 56–7 to the Hoosiers in Bloomington, Ind., in 2024. Still to come thereafter: Oregon, Ohio State and Iowa.

Lincoln Riley (6), USC

Riley didn’t as much boost his standing Saturday as avoid torpedoing it. When the Trojans were down double digits at home to Washington, after losing at home by double digits to Oregon, things looked ugly. Scoring the final 15 points of the game was an act of survival.

But, hey, at least six of those points came from the USC defense, helping negate the truly pitiful tackling effort that enabled one Washington touchdown. The Trojans are 5–1 and conveniently don’t face Notre Dame, but they’re going to have to beat somebody of note—multiple somebodies of note—to back up this team’s preseason hype and restore Riley’s credibility.

USC coach Lincoln Riley looks on against Washington. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On the wrong side of the scoreboard, and public opinion:

Shane Beamer (7), South Carolina

Losing home games to Mississippi State and Kentucky is a ticket to a losing season. Yeah, they’re both improved, but the Gamecocks (2–3) can’t drop those given everything else on the schedule. The Kentucky loss was a familiar refrain, with South Carolina jumping to a sizable lead and then failing to protect it.

The Cocks are last in the SEC in pass efficiency defense, having been strafed by three good QBs—Kamario Taylor, Keelon Russell and Kenny Minchey. They’re also tied for the fewest takeaways in the league, with two.

Beamer has been known to pull some upsets when least expected. He needs a couple more in the weeks to come.

Mike Locksley and Greg Schiano (8), Maryland and Rutgers, respectively

They play each other Oct. 17. It may be the last chance for either of them to win a game this season. Or, potentially, in their tenures at these schools.

North Carolina coach Bill Belichick reacts in the second half against Notre Dame. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bill Belichick (9), North Carolina

Now that the Michael Lombardi debacle has been removed from the equation, there is a path forward for Belichick. Show some progress by making a bowl game and then reconvene for a third season of Chapel Bill Ball. The offense is improved under Bobby Petrino and the defense has been solid in the wake of Steve Belichick’s resignation.

Three of the next four opponents are undefeated. One of those would be an excellent time for the first signature victory of Belichick’s tenure.

What Is Happening in Colorado?

Football is a circus in the state (10), with dysfunction the dominant theme at both Colorado and Colorado State.

The Buffaloes have lost three straight after a 2–0 start, scoring a total of 27 points in those defeats. The quarterback play bottomed out Saturday against Texas Tech when first-time starter Isaac Wilson threw a pick-six to a Red Raiders defender who was already in the end zone. It went down as a zero-yard interception return touchdown. But that was only part of the embarrassment.

At one point Colorado sent eight defenders out for a Tech field goal attempt, called timeout, then came back with nine men. And the day before the game, someone with the Colorado program left an offensive game plan packet in the bar of the team hotel, where it was discovered by Texas Tech fans. Doubts about the legitimacy of the documents were dispelled when Colorado ran several of the plays during the game. Deion Sanders hasn’t run the most buttoned-up operation in Boulder, but it appears to be getting worse.

Coach Prime: “We got 9 people out there after a timeout”

🎥: @DeionSandersJr https://t.co/QM9769Yv1D pic.twitter.com/E1fW7KH43O
— DNVR Buffs (@DNVR_Buffs) October 4, 2026

Still, that pales in comparison to the theatrics in Fort Collins, where defensive coordinator Tyson Summers was both demoted and then quit during the loss to Oregon State on Saturday. Summers, who was on Jay Norvell’s staff and Colorado State and finished the season as the interim coach (going 0–5), was retained by Jim Mora. That was an unwise decision, as the Rams have allowed 156 points in their past three games. When Mora yanked away Summers’s defensive play-calling duties during the first quarter against the Beavers, Summers quit. On the spot. He left the sideline and, perhaps, the entire stadium.

“He made the decision on his own to leave the field, and he is no longer with the program,” Mora said afterward.

Mora is not a stranger to sideline confrontation, having once had an extended argument with a staffer while he was the head coach at UCLA. But having a coordinator literally walk off the job during a game is a new one.

Jim Mora at UCLA in 2014 https://t.co/THtVS9PHWc pic.twitter.com/xs4gwnfTab
— Tim Cates (@timcates) October 4, 2026

Dash Playoff Bracket

Every week, The Dash selects and seeds the College Football Playoff as if today were Selection Sunday. This week’s bracket:

Seeding

Texas
Ohio State
Miami
Notre Dame
Alabama
Georgia
Indiana
Mississippi State
UCLA
Missouri
BYU
Boise State

Also considered: Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech, Pittsburgh, Mississippi, LSU, Florida, Kentucky, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin.

First Round

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 UCLA at No. 8 Mississippi State

Quarterfinals

Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Notre Dame vs. winner of No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama
Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami vs. winner of No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Georgia
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Indiana
Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Texas vs. winner of No. 9 UCLA at No. 8 Mississippi State

PODCAST: Listen to Sports Illustrated’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, hosted by Pat Forde, on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s college YouTube channel or on SI TV.

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