College Football Playoff Eliminator: Which Teams Are Out or Alive for a Berth After Week 1

Early last month, as the sport turned its full attention to the Week 1 slate, there were plenty of derisive comments directed at the slate of college football games. There was only one quality, ranked-vs.-ranked matchup and a decided dearth of games which you thought would have College Football Playoff implications.

As it so often does, however, the schedule on paper did not turn out to be such a lackluster affair in practice. Mississippi and Louisville staged a thriller in Nashville that probably helped elevate the Cardinals firmly into the ranks of contention in the ACC while giving the Rebels a quality win. There was everything that went on with the ending of Michigan and Western Michigan, which will be a discussion for several months. Boise State looked again like the class of the Group of 6 in pushing Oregon to the brink, Coach Prime delivered a big upset at Georgia Tech, Auburn won just down the road in Atlanta thanks to the literal final inch and UMass managed to make history in a positive sense for the first time in ages.

With that in mind, it’s time to examine just what the impact of all those results will be down the road by entering The Eliminator—where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. Here’s where the field stands after a busy Week 1 as the CFP race has kicked off in earnest.

College Football Playoff field after Week 1

Playoff locks

Zero teams (0% of the bracket)

Alive for a CFP bid

124 teams, 90% of FBS

ACC (17)
Big 12 (16)
Big Ten (18)
SEC (16)
Independent (2)
American (13)
Conference USA (6)
MAC (9)
Mountain West (8)
Pac-12 (7)
Sun Belt (13)

Teams eliminated after Week 1

Charlotte
Rutgers
Florida International
Jacksonville State
Sam Houston State
Western Kentucky
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Sacramento State
Wyoming
Hawai’i
Utah State
Arkansas State

Out of the playoff chase

14 teams, 10% of FBS

ACC (0)
Big 12 (0)
Big Ten (1)
SEC (0)
Independent (0)
American (1)
Conference USA (4)
MAC (4)
Mountain West (2)
Pac-12 (1)
Sun Belt (1)

ACC

Alive: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

In contrast to recent years, the ACC champion will be guaranteed a berth in the CFP—which means more teams will be kept in contention for the playoff longer than you would think. While that path through Charlotte therefore exists for everyone, it still was not a great start to 2026 for the league as a whole given that it notched just a single nonconference win over another Power 4 league (North Carolina over TCU in Week Zero) and suffered several tough defeats by the time things ticked over to Week 2. Yes, there’s still plenty of time for Louisville, Pitt, SMU and others to state their case, but this looks increasingly like a one-bid season for the ACC unless something happens to Miami that prevents the Hurricanes from finally winning the conference title.

Eliminated: None

Out: None

Big 12

Alive: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, West Virginia

Aside from the debacle TCU suffered in Ireland and Oklahoma State falling to Tulsa, it was a solid start to the season for the Big 12. Colorado picked up a nice victory at Georgia Tech, Texas Tech QB Will Hammond looked healthy, Utah rolled in Morgan Scalley’s debut and Baylor seemed improved even if it came up an inch short against Auburn. Things get much tougher moving forward though.

Eliminated: None

Out: None

Big Ten

Alive: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, USC, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

It was not exactly a rip-roaring set of results across the Big Ten early on, from Illinois needing some time to pull away from UAB, Michigan State messing around with Toledo deep into the game, Oregon getting pushed to the brink by Boise State, Washington self-destructing for much of the Apple Cup and Nebraska having its hands full with Ohio. The thing is, nobody will be talking about any of those games after what happened to Michigan and the conference office needing to spend much of Saturday in damage control mode as the Wolverines—a supposed CFP contender—got lucky to escape Western Michigan. The coming week is the real test, however, which will be a reputation-making one when it comes to the annual war with the SEC and a good gauge of just how many elite teams there really are in the Big Ten.

Eliminated: Rutgers

While the Scarlet Knights theoretically have a path to Indianapolis for the conference title game and a CFP bid, we’re going to chalk that up to the stuff of utter fantasy after they lost to UMass in the most humiliating fashion Thursday. The manner in which Rutgers was pushed around by that program, which earned every bit the label of being the worst in FBS, is essentially disqualifying from any notion of even being in the CFP race to begin with and makes for a quick process in ensuring this is the first Power 4 school eliminated from the national title chase. It was already going to be an uphill battle to make it to a bowl game, but it took just one week for things to get so much worse for the team and any bigger picture aspirations they may have had. Perhaps the worst thing is that the Big Ten must now also reckon with the fact that if teams don’t beat Rutgers by better than 16 points, the selection committee is liable to hold it against them.

Out: Rutgers

SEC

Alive: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

It was, quite literally, a perfect start to the season by the SEC with every team winning its game in Week 1. Only two games were really even close as Ole Miss notched a quality victory over Louisville and Auburn stood strong at the one-inch line to beat Baylor. We’ll learn much more with the slate this coming Saturday but so far, so good for the league where it just means more.

Eliminated: None

Out: None

Independents

Alive: Notre Dame, UConn

It took awhile for the Fighting Irish to really get going at Lambeau Field against Wisconsin, but when they did it’s hard to say anything other than they took care of business. It will still be mid-October before an accurate assessment can be made of Marcus Freeman’s team, but credit for the excellent second half to kick off their revenge tour. The Huskies had a much easier time with their FCS opponent to begin the Jason Candle era the day prior, but more or less will see a CFP elimination game coming up against Maryland.

Eliminated: None

Out: None

American

Alive: Army, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Tulane, Rice, South Florida, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA

After a coaching and talent drain from last season, the American seems to have fewer Group of 6 bid contenders but still is not lacking for quality résumés following an excellent start to the campaign. Memphis notched a massive win over UNLV in Week Zero, Tulsa knocked off Oklahoma State yet again and North Texas, East Carolina, UAB and even FAU acquitted themselves against hefty competition. All but one of their nonconference losses came against Power 4 teams, so much of the league remains of interest when it comes to the postseason chase.

Eliminated: Charlotte

Alas, if there is one American team which we can go ahead and cross off in red marker, it’s the 49ers. While any loss to an FCS foe is going to essentially earn you a ticket out of the field, Tim Albin’s team falling to a bad program from the lower levels while at home and in overtime just adds to what is already a black mark. The only silver lining is that while they’re out on an island of their own making right now, it won’t take long for other members of the conference to join them among the ranks of the eliminated.

Out: Charlotte

Conference USA

Alive: Delaware, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State, New Mexico State

Conference USA teams basically have to play perfect aside from one paycheck game against Power 4 opposition if they want to hold out even a sliver of hope to make the CFP. Liberty is one of the few teams who will be able to withstand a loss to a fellow Group of 6 member and still live to tell about it (almost completely down to the potential for them to run the table the rest of the way), but the line is thin for most of the conference after several surprising results all over the country.

Eliminated: Florida International, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky

The Flames exception aside, CUSA saw a number of teams drop like flies after Week 1. WKU might be a threat to win the conference, but getting trucked at Nevada puts too big a hole on its résumé to make them viable as a potential CFP team. Same for Sam Houston falling to Troy, Jacksonville State looking uncompetitive against NDSU and Florida International losing to USF.

Out: Florida International, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky

MAC

Alive: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, UMass, Western Michigan

Maybe things will take care of themselves, but one of the most interesting scenarios for the selection committee this year may be what happens if Western Michigan is sitting there with just one loss by the time they start meeting in November. You would like to think that every CFP member would treat that dash one next to the Broncos’ name as what amounts to an undefeated record given all that transpired against Michigan—and it would certainly help if they beat Boise State when the latter comes to town in a few weeks. It’s been awhile since the MAC had a real viable team to hang their hat on in the playoff discussion but, ending aside, it seems like WMU will have that chance after what we saw in Week 1.

Eliminated: Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Sacramento State

The attention directed toward Western Michigan will likely overshadow that plenty of conference peers fell by the wayside early. Eddie George’s Bowling Green lost to an FCS team (albeit a national title contender) to effectively rule them out, while losses to fellow G6 teams can eliminate two of the directional Michigan schools. The most recent addition to FBS may have won in Week 1, but their Week Zero loss on the road remains.

Out: Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Sacramento State

Mountain West

Alive: Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, San José State, UNLV, UTEP

It will still take some getting used to this current configuration of the Mountain West, but the good news is that most of the conference still offers up the possibility of making the CFP. The Rebels in Vegas might have a pretty narrow path following their late collapse against Memphis, but they responded well out on the islands with a nice bounce back to stay in the hunt.

Eliminated: Hawai’i, Wyoming

The Rainbow Warriors had a shot to beat Stanford, but suddenly find themselves at 0–2 already. It’s not completely out of the question that there’s a rally which can help them make the MWC title game, but any hopes of being the team picked as the Group of 6 representative are already over. Meanwhile, the Cowboys looked better than they did at this point last season, but that only goes so far when you lose to Colorado State on the road and get field-stormed.

Out: Hawai’i, Wyoming

Pac-12

Alive: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Texas State, Washington State

You saw just how frisky this league is going to be even with the Aztecs becoming the only newfound Pac-12 member to pick up a victory. Much like the last time they played Oregon, the Broncos showed they could compete against an elite national title contender to help burnish their credentials, Oregon State pushed Houston on the road surprisingly and even Wazzu hung around against their rivals in Seattle for the unseasonably warm Apple Cup.

Eliminated: Utah State

Not everything was rosy in the debut of the reborn conference as the Aggies fell to FCS Idaho, State which mustered just 241 yards of offense and converted on just five third downs. That’s what happens when you throw four interceptions and find yourself out of the mix after the first weekend.

Out: Utah State

Sun Belt

Alive: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, James Madison, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy

Credit to JMU for a nice win over Liberty that had some CFP implications to start off the Billy Napier era in style. These ranks will thin pretty quickly among the Sun Belt teams, but things were straightforward enough in terms of results where that won’t matter just yet.

Eliminated: Arkansas State

If there was one team which said goodbye to the CFP, it was the Red Wolves. Butch Jones’s team had a decent start at Memphis but that second half, the lack of résumé opportunities moving forward and the final margin put them in a different class from all of their other league brethren.

Out: Arkansas State

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