College Football Playoff Eliminator: Which Teams Are Out or Alive for a Berth After Week 3

All eyes began (and ended) Week 3 focused on the festivities in Oxford, Miss., with LSU and Ole Miss, but the sport did not limit the fun to just one game amid a slate which was head-scratching in so many ways. That’s not just limited to the ending of the NC State–Vanderbilt game, Houston coming up inches short against Texas Tech or even Kentucky’s massive upset of Texas A&M.

With all that in mind, it’s time to examine just what the impact of all those results will be by entering The Eliminator—where we’re cutting teams and seeing which ones still have (an often mathematical) chance to play for the national title. Here’s where the field stands after Week 3.

College Football Playoff field after Week 3

Playoff locks

Zero teams (0% of the bracket)

Alive for a CFP bid

97 teams, 70% of FBS

ACC (14)
Big 12 (16)
Big Ten (18)
SEC (16)
Independent (1)
American (9)
Conference USA (2)
MAC (3)
Mountain West (4)
Pac-12 (6)
Sun Belt (8)

Teams eliminated after Week 3

Stanford
Syracuse
Rice
Temple
UAB
Kennesaw State
Missouri State
Akron
Ball State
Kent State
Miami (Ohio)
Ohio
San José State
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss

Out of the playoff chase

41 teams, 30% of FBS

ACC (3)
Big 12 (0)
Big Ten (1)
SEC (0)
Independent (1)
American (5)
Conference USA (8)
MAC (10)
Mountain West (6)
Pac-12 (2)
Sun Belt (6)

ACC

Alive: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

It was an eventful weekend in the ACC as Miami saw its first little wobble on the road Friday night despite near perfect play from its quarterback, Virginia surprisingly fell from the ranks of the unbeatens against West Virginia and lil’ ol’ Clemson managed to take advantage of a rain delay to come back to beat North Carolina. Perhaps the biggest win was reserved for Louisville, though, which topped SMU and looks primed to be a CFP contender the way it is playing to go with a favorable path to Charlotte for the conference title game.

Eliminated: Stanford, Syracuse

Early league play in the ACC means some teams will fall out of the CFP race before September even comes to a close and that’s the case for both the Orange and Cardinal after losses dropped them to 0–2 in the standings. It still seems like both teams are improved from where they were a year ago, but there are some glaring issues on each side of the ball and a pretty difficult path ahead to even make a bowl game after Saturday’s results.

Out: Georgia Tech

Big 12

Alive: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Utah, West Virginia

Any early thoughts about this being Texas Tech’s league to lose have probably dissipated after three games, not just because of their close call on Friday night against Houston but because there’s less of a gap to the chasing pack than there was last season. BYU remains rolling, Arizona State survived its long road trip, West Virginia should probably be ranked by now and Kansas State will not be an easy out based on what we’ve seen.

Eliminated: None

Out: None

Big Ten

Alive: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, USC, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

The weekend that was in the Big Ten was a big, fat nothing burger in a schedule that lacked … pretty much everything. There were blowouts galore of overmatched nonconference foes, some disappointing losses to teams from the ACC plus Notre Dame and a general ceding of the national spotlight to their peers down south in Week 3. Hopefully that changes even as the amount of teams still in the CFP chase remains high.

Eliminated: None

Out: Rutgers

SEC

Alive: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

We’re awfully close to putting Arkansas on the chopping block after falling to 1–2 but since it has lost only one SEC game, the Hogs remain technically alive (even if their fans don’t believe one bit of it). There are a whopping nine teams still standing at 3–0 plus a host of other contenders from the conference, but things should start to get interesting as league play picks up steam starting this weekend.

Eliminated: None

Out: None

Independents

Alive: Notre Dame

The Irish have outscored their opponents by 97 points across three games, but it still looked like they were pulled down to Michigan State’s level on Saturday as opposed to imposing their will against the Spartans. Maybe that’s a good thing as it shows this group still has plenty to work on and can peak when it really matters, like in trips to BYU or against Miami.

Eliminated: None

Out: UConn

American

Alive: Army, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, Tulsa, UTSA

Despite scoring a few nice wins to largely close out nonconference play, it wasn’t the greatest weekend for the American to improve its overall conference strength. North Texas notably fell to Texas State in a key battle with the Pac-12, which could be one of those results that comes up in the committee room when comparing some of the upper-echelon sides from the two Group of 6 leagues.

Eliminated: Rice, Temple, UAB

The middle class of American teams thinned considerably after several head-scratchers on Saturday, including Temple inexplicably losing to Toledo in overtime, UAB falling to Louisiana and Rice being unable to get the job done against Western Michigan in a close game.

Out: Charlotte, East Carolina

Conference USA

Alive: Delaware, Middle Tennessee State

Is it time to start talking about the Blue Hens as the favorite for Conference USA? One of the FBS’s newest teams doesn’t look like it after hanging tough against Vandy last week and then notching a quality win over Coastal Carolina. We’ll see how they fare against Virginia this weekend, but the Blue Hens might well be the team to beat in the league if they can top Liberty once league play opens.

Eliminated: Kennesaw State, Missouri State

Both the Bears and Owls dropped to 1–2 following nonconference losses that were mostly expected (against Marshall and Tennessee, respectively). There’s still plenty to play for in the CUSA standings at least.

Out: Florida International, Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky

MAC

Alive: Toledo, UMass, Western Michigan

One wonders if the conference office got a bit nervous seeing Western Michigan locked in a close one at Rice this weekend just ahead of their mega matchup against Boise State in Kalamazoo, Mich., that will go a long way in setting a Group of 6 pecking order. As is, the MAC is probably better positioned than it was a year ago thanks to Toledo’s comeback and UMass rolling to an improbable 3–0 start.

Eliminated: Akron, Ball State, Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Ohio

Just four MAC teams have a winning record after three weeks of play and several teams narrowly missed out on joining them. The RedHawks in particular have to be kicking themselves after blowing a three-touchdown lead against rival Cincinnati while the Bobcats never could get back into things after their bad start in a loss to South Alabama.

Out: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Sacramento State

Mountain West

Alive: Air Force, New Mexico, North Dakota State, UTEP

Lobos head coach Jason Eck described his team’s trip to Oklahoma akin to eating at a nice steakhouse and he nearly had the dinner bill from a nice meal picked up by somebody else following a narrow 14–6 loss that came down to some key calls in the fourth quarter. The program still looks like the one to beat in the MWC even as the Bison continue to roll on.

Eliminated: San José State

The Spartans still can be a factor in the MWC race this season but any designs on staying around to mount a CFP charge can be tucked away after losing to Fresno State to drop to 2–2. Ken Niumatalolo can’t be thrilled at the way his team finished against their California rivals at home either by allowing a close game to get broken open in the final minutes.

Out: Hawai’i, Nevada, Northern Illinois, UNLV, Wyoming

Pac-12

Alive: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Texas State

Week 3 was somewhat of a mixed bag from the Pac-12, with original members Oregon State and Washington State both notching wins, Texas State knocking off North Texas and Colorado State doing better than expected against BYU. San Diego State, however, could not get it done against James Madison at home to put its playoff hopes in danger, and it seemed pretty clear Boise State was looking ahead to this Saturday given the way they let South Dakota hang around on the blue turf.

Eliminated: None

Out: Utah State, Washington State

Sun Belt

Alive: Appalachian State, Georgia State, James Madison, Louisiana, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Troy

The East division once again looks like it will be the tougher side of the conference this season, not just because James Madison is off to a 3–0 start with wins over CUSA and Pac-12 contenders, but because of several surprises like Georgia State and Appalachian State seeming much improved from last season.

Eliminated: Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss

The only thing that prevented a good week in the Fun Belt from becoming a great one was several close nonconference losses by teams like Coastal Carolina (to Delaware) and Georgia Southern (Jacksonville State). You can still see a team like Louisiana Tech contending within its division this year but its second nonconference loss, even to a team like Baylor, is going to be enough to knock it off of the list of teams the selection committee will be considering later this fall.

Out: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe

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