Why the 2026 Heisman Trophy Race Could Be Historic

Just 10 months from now, we’ll be preparing to crown the next Heisman Trophy winner.

That sounds like a long time from now. As the offseason becomes more and more real with each passing weekend, it feels like a long time. But before you know it, it will be time to start parsing statistics and weighing overall seasons against each other as voters begin to cast their ballots.

Who could be the successor to reigning winner Fernando Mendoza? Just before the season, the Indiana quarterback was, depending on where you looked, somewhere around a 60–1 long shot to win the award. Those odds were significantly worse than others who got benched (Austin Simmons and Jackson Arnold), had sub-par seasons (Ryan Williams and DJ Lagway) or got hurt (like favorites Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar). It seemed like a race chock full of easily identifiable names but became wide open before Mendoza ultimately seized control.

For much of the past two decades, there has been a tried and true Heisman formula that starts with putting up oversize stats on a team that is either a historic blueblood or one who is in College Football Playoff/conference championship races with big games on TV in November or December.

Aside from just four winners in recent history—Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel, Louisville QB Lamar Jackson and LSU QB Jayden Daniels—pretty much everybody has check one of those boxes.

That brings us to the 2026 crop of candidates, which looks historic in the quantity and quality of players who could be in the running.

According to FanDuel, 10 teams have national title odds better than +1800 and that doesn’t include several prominent bluebloods like Alabama, Oklahoma, USC and Michigan who won at least nine games last season and return quite a bit for 2026. That is already a larger-than-normal group of likely CFP contenders and each of them contains at least one candidate for the award with a good start to their campaign.

Among those is Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr, who was fifth in FBS last season in passing efficiency in his first full season as a starter. More will be on his plate with both of his dynamic tailbacks off to the NFL, and he should have plenty of weapons as the Fighting Irish added pieces in the portal and their highly rated high school class.

It also includes last season’s poster boy in Arch Manning, who failed to live up to the preseason hype only because the bar was set so ridiculously high as to be unachievable. In 2026 he has a chance to actually clear it after an exceptionally strong close to the season and some seriously upgraded skill position talent in stud receiver Cam Coleman and tailback Hollywood Smothers.

There are at least six other returning quarterbacks who have the name recognition combined with the ability to play on a title contender, all of whom are in the Big Ten or SEC and will play marquee games this season: Oregon’s Dante Moore, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, USC’s Jayden Maiava, Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood. Then there is returning finalist Julian Sayin at Ohio State, who only led the country in completion percentage.

To that group, you could throw in veterans who are in new places but have everything it takes, including Mendoza’s successor at Indiana in Josh Hoover, Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, Lane Kiffin’s latest protégé in Sam Leavitt at LSU and high-priced Texas Tech signal-caller Brendan Sorsby.

We’ll throw in Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss for good measure, though his actual status is up to the courts for the moment.

That’s a deep and impressive group that stretches well beyond your typical short list of contenders and doesn’t even get to the non-quarterbacks fully capable of joining them. Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith might be going into his third year as the best offensive player in the sport. His slightly younger teammate, tailback Bo Jackson, could siphon off some support, too. Everybody watched during the playoff just how dynamic Malachi Toney was with the ball in his hands in Miami—imagine what he can do when he’s actually the age of a typical college freshman. Heck, the Rebels’ Kewan Lacy, the top tailback in the SEC, is back for another go-around.

Naturally, many of these players will trail off in popularity and effectiveness as soon as games get underway. Offensive lines protecting some quarterbacks will crater more than they will wall off defenders. Injuries will transpire. That’s the nature of this sport and particularly so at this level.

But as it stands now, it’s trending toward an incredible 2026 season that will not lack for players with budding Heisman campaigns. Ten months may seem like a long time between now and early December, but it may take every one of them to narrow down a field like this into a winner.

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