Why Your Team Won't Win the NCAA Tournament

Author:
SI Staff
Publish date:
Mar 23, 2015

Why Your Team Won't Win the NCAA Tournament

Wichita State

The Shockers looked great in dispatching of Kansas in the Round of 32, but the bloom has come off the Big 12 rose just a bit in this tournament. Can a team that had exactly one win over an at-large quality squad in the regular season make it through Notre Dame and Kentucky, and then win two more games? I don’t think so. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

West Virginia

The Mountaineers have been able to overwhelm their first two opponents, Buffalo and Maryland. That won’t be the case when they meet Kentucky in the Sweet 16. West Virginia fans can forget about winning the championship. Their team won’t even make the Elite Eight. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Notre Dame

The Irish are one of the best offensive teams in the country, but they need to be clicking on all cylinders offensively to win games. They may be able to do that three or four games in a row against the best competition in the country. Few teams can do that for six games running, and Notre Dame will not be one of them. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Wisconsin

The Badgers nearly lost to Oregon in the Round of 32, and now the blueprint for beating them is out there. If you double Frank Kaminsky in the post, you make him uncomfortable and disrupt the Badgers’ offensive flow. One of these remaining teams will be able to do that, and do more on the offensive end than the Ducks could to knock off the Badgers. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Arizona

The Wildcats are big favorites against Xavier in the Sweet 16, but the same team that eliminated them last year, Wisconsin, may loom in the Elite Eight. The Badgers would again present a terrible matchup for the Wildcats, as would North Carolina, which can really bang with them thanks to Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson. The winner in the top half of this region is going to the Final Four. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the first weekend, upsetting No. 1 Villanova to make the Sweet 16. We saw this from the Wolfpack in the regular season, however, and they too often followed up a big win (like the one over Duke or the one over North Carolina) with a bad loss shortly thereafter. They’ve been a great story, but that story ends before the Final Four. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Xavier

Xavier had arguably the easiest path of any team in the Sweet 16, getting through Mississippi and Georgia State in its first two games. It takes a huge leap in weight class, going up against Arizona on Thursday. Xavier’s offense was too much for its first two opponents to handle, but Arizona is a different story. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Louisville

There’s no doubting that the Cardinals got a great draw by being placed in a pod with Northern Iowa, UC-Irvine and Wyoming. They lost to NC State in their only regular season meeting, and that game was in Louisville. Their scoring deficiencies haven’t cost them yet, but it’s hard to see them making it through four more games without those coming to a head. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

North Carolina

The Tar Heels have been inconsistent against top competition this year. So why should we expect them to reel off four straight wins, a stretch that may include Wisconsin, Arizona, Kentucky and Duke? The answer? We shouldn’t. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Oklahoma

The Sooners have a very tough Sweet 16 game in front of them with a Michigan State team that is surging at the right moment. Even if they get through that one, they may have to beat Duke just to make the championship game. Oklahoma is one of two Big 12 teams left standing, but there’s a chance that conference wasn’t as good as everyone thought it was just one week ago. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Duke

The Blue Devils are the heavy favorite to win the South Region, as they should be. However, we’ve seen them struggle this year when two of the three freshmen—Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow—have bad games. Can all three make it through the next two weeks without struggling on the game’s biggest stage? If they don’t, Duke will fall short of its ultimate dream. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Utah

Rare is the team that gets a series of wins during the tournament better than any individual win it had in the regular season. That’s exactly what Utah would have to do to win the national championship. This team has been better than expected all season long, but its season ends against Duke in the Sweet 16. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Michigan State

There’s no doubt that the Spartans are playing their best basketball of the season, and that Tom Izzo is an absolute wizard in March. At the same time, it’s not like Jason Richardson or Mateen Cleaves or Adreian Payne are suddenly suiting up for the Spartans. They’re a No. 7 seed for a reason. They may win another game or two, but they don’t have what it takes to go all the way. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

UCLA

The Bruins have already had the satisfaction of rubbing every pundit’s nose in his or her Selection Sunday proclamations. At the same time, they won their first game on a controversial goaltending call, and then moved onto the Sweet 16 by beating a team that finished tied for fourth place in Conference USA. They already lost to Gonzaga once this year, and that game was at Pauley Pavilion. They will do so again in Houston this week. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Gonzaga

The Bulldogs answered a lot of their doubters by routing Iowa in the Round of 32. Their path to the Elite Eight looks clear, but can this team really handle Jahlil Okafor and Duke? Even after their first two tournament wins, they’ve played just one top-10 team all year, and they lost that game. It’s hard to imagine them winning the minimum of two necessary to be crowned national champions. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Kentucky

The Wildcats have had a dream season, but many good things must come to an end. They’ve built their dominance on the defensive end this year, but they may have to go through the top-three offenses in adjusted efficiency (Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Duke) to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. One of those teams will get hot enough to pull off the upset. (Text credit: Michael Beller)

Why Your Team Won't Win the NCAA Tournament