Bubble/Bracket Watch: Monmouth, Wichita State appear NIT-bound

It seems that being a No. 1 seed in a small conference has been more trouble than it's worth this month. Entering Tuesday, seven teams had earned automatic bids by winning their conference tournament championships, and just one top seed—Chattanooga, in the Southern Conference—is among them. A seventh regular season champion, IPFW, lost to North Dakota State in the Summit League semifinals on Monday.

More often than not, these teams just don’t have strong enough resumes to be in the at-large discussion. They typically don’t get an abundance of opportunity for resume-building victories, meaning just a few bad losses can eliminate them from at-large consideration. That is not the case this season. The bubble is as soft as ever, and two teams that won their regular season titles but lost over the last few days are about to place themselves among the most polarizing bubble teams in history.

The first is Wichita State, which fell to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley semifinals last Saturday. By reaching the Final Four in 2013, entering the NCAAs undefeated in '14 and beating in-state rival Kansas to advance to the Sweet 16 last year, the Shockers have become a name brand under coach Gregg Marshall and senior guards Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker. This year’s team, however, has just one win over the RPI top 50—albeit an impressive one over Utah—but that is Wichita State's only victory against a team worthy of an at-large bid. There isn’t much bad on the Shockers' resume, with just one loss outside the top 100, but they haven’t proved to the selection committee that they can consistently beat tournament-quality competition.

Wichita State is also going to run into problems with its metrics. Its RPI is barely inside the top 50, and its strength of schedule is outside the top 100. It does have a sterling rating from kenpom.com, sitting at No. 11, and the committee has said it will consider non-traditional metrics. If the Shockers manage to get an at-large bid, though, they will almost certainly go to Dayton as part of the First Four.

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Then there's Monmouth, the regular season champion in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, which lost to Iona in the title game on Monday. The Hawks made a huge statement in non-conference play, beating UCLA and Georgetown on the road and Notre Dame and USC on a neutral court in the Advocare Invitational (a tournament in which Wichita State lost to USC, Alabama and Iowa, though they were without VanVleet).

In fact, Monmouth had more road and neutral-floor wins than any other team in Division I, and also included a victory over Rutgers of the Big Ten. It’s not the Hawks' fault those teams ended up being much worse than expected this year, but it may take some of the shine off those victories in the eyes of the committee.

What will hurt even worse, however, is Monmouth’s three losses to teams outside the top 200 in RPI. Teams in the Hawks' position can't afford that kind of blight on their resume, and losses to Army (RPI: 212), Canisius (222) and Manhattan (226), is going to be a lot for them to overcome on Selection Sunday.

Of course, every bubble team has significant flaws. For every reason you can come up with to support Wichita State or Monmouth, you can find one for Michigan or Cincinnati. Most college basketball fans would probably prefer to see a small school that dominated its conference rather than a middling team from a power conference in the Big Dance. Just because their story might be better, however, doesn’t make them more deserving. There probably isn’t room for both Wichita State and Monmouth in the dance, and the bet here is that both will have to settle for the NIT.

Butler Bulldogs

21-9, 10-8 Big East
RPI: 46, SOS: 68, kenpom.com: 34
Current Bracket Watch seed: 9

The Bulldogs did significant work to end the regular season, picking up a road win at Georgetown and a home victory over Seton Hall to put them in a very good position heading into the Big East tournament. Their underwhelming RPI and strength of schedule won’t leave them much wiggle room, but they should be set for a bid, even with a loss in their opening game. Remember, the committee has to award 36 at-large bids no matter what. It’s hard to find 37 more deserving teams than this one.

Next game: Thursday vs. Providence, Big East quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: Beating the Friars would lock the Bulldogs into the dance.

Oregon State Beavers

18-11, 9-9 Pac-12
RPI: 30, SOS: 7, kenpom.com: 59
Current Bracket Watch seed: 9

Don’t get tripped up on Oregon State’s record. That may not typically translate to a No. 9 seed, but the Beavers have played quite well against the best competition they’ve seen this year, and there has been plenty of it, as evidenced by their strength of schedule. They’re 3-4 against the RPI top 25 and 5-8 against the top 50. They also have yet to lose a game against teams ranked lower than 100 in RPI. That’s an impressive resume, especially when you consider how weak the back end of the at-large field is again this season. Any team that has wins over Oregon, Utah and California, without any bad losses, should go dancing.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Arizona State, Pac-12 first round

Path to the tournament: A win over the 15-16 Sun Devils would ensure that the Beavers don't suffer a damaging loss in the conference tourney and should be enough. If they went on to beat California on Thursday, they definitely wouldn’t have anything to worry about on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Panthers

20-10, 9-9 ACC
RPI: 55, SOS: 41, kenpom.com: 43
Current Bracket Watch seed: 9

The Panthers and their near-identical ACC twin, Syracuse, will be two interesting teams this week, especially because they will face off against each other in the ACC tournament on Wednesday. If you look at their resumes blindly, they really aren’t much different from the teams we have as last four in and first four out. What separates them is the quality of wins available to teams in the ACC versus those in the Atlantic 10 or American. Pitt may have just two top-50 wins, but they were against Duke and Notre Dame, which is better than any win a team can get in the A-10 or AAC. Still, there isn’t much margin for error for the Panthers, or the Orange, for that matter. That should make Wednesday’s game all the more interesting.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Syracuse, ACC second round

Path to the tournament: Both Pitt and Syracuse are likely at-large teams, but whichever one wins tomorrow will definitely be in the field of 68. The loser is going to be sweating for the rest of the weekend and could be one of the last four teams in, but chances are it will still make it. Of course, there's always the danger of a surprise conference champ or a deep run by a power conference team like Alabama or Ohio State that could steal a bid.

Vanderbilt Commodores

19-12, 11-7 SEC
RPI: 49, SOS: 28, kenpom.com: 23
Current Bracket Watch seed: 9

The Commodores are looking good after going 7-3 in the second half of their SEC schedule, with wins over Texas A&M and Kentucky included in that stretch. They will have to play in the second round of the conference tournament, but all signs point to them getting an invite to the dance. They could remove all doubt by winning two games in the SEC tourney, which would put them in the semifinals. Assuming Vandy is in the field, it will be a team that no No. 1 or 2 seed wants to face in the second round.

Next game: Thursday vs. Tennessee/Auburn winner, SEC second round

Path to the tournament: A win over the Volunteers or Tigers should be good enough, as that would guarantee the Commodores don’t add a loss to a sub-.500 team to their resume. If they beat LSU in the quarterfinals, they’ll wake up on Selection Sunday without a worry in the world.

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Saint Joseph’s Hawks

24-7, 13-5 Atlantic 10
RPI: 33, SOS: 78, kenpom.com: 49
Current Bracket Watch seed: 10

Saint Joe's ended the regular season in disastrous fashion, losing to fellow bubble team St. Bonaventure, which was excusable, and then falling at home to non-tourney hopeful Duquesne, which wasn’t. The Hawks really didn’t have a standout win all season—their best victory was at home over Dayton—but they could point to the fact that the didn’t have any sub-100 losses as proof of their at-large worthiness. That is no longer the case after falling to the Dukes. They’re still on relatively solid footing, but that would change if they lose their first game in the A-10 tournament.

Next game: Friday vs. the winner of George Washington and George Mason/Saint Louis, A-10 quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: Saint Joe's won’t feel absolutely safe unless it advances to the conference championship, knocking off top-seeded Dayton in the semifinals. If the Hawks lose that game, they’ll be nervous on Selection Sunday, though their chances of making the dance would still be better than 50-50. If they lose in the quarterfinals, they’ll be in serious danger. They have just two wins over our current at-large field.

Syracuse Orange

19-12, 9-9 ACC
RPI: 60, SOS: 39, kenpom.com: 41
Current Bracket Watch seed: 10

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The Orange put themselves in a very tough spot by losing four of their last five games in the regular season. That they have four wins against the RPI top 50, two of which were against the top 25 (at Duke, vs. Notre Dame) is enough to keep them in the dance and out of the First Four for the time being. At the same time, they have three sub-100 losses. If they don’t add something positive to their resume during the ACC tournament, they’re going to have a nervous few days leading up to Selection Sunday.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Pittsburgh, ACC second round

Path to the tournament: A win over the Panthers should be enough to cement a bid for Syracuse, though it would remove all doubt by taking down North Carolina in the following round. As we stated earlier, however, the loser of Pitt-'Cuse could be in trouble, especially if some of their fellow bubble teams make some noise this week. We could ultimately look back at this as a de facto elimination game.

Temple Owls

20-10, 14-4 AAC
RPI: 58, SOS: 65, kenpom.com: 86
Current Bracket Watch seed: 10

The Owls aren’t going to get any help from their RPI number, which, for all its faults, is still something the committee values. The strength of schedule and kenpom.com numbers won’t help, either. Still, when the committee looks at the AAC teams, it will have a hard time ignoring the fact that Temple went 6-1 against Cincinnati, Connecticut, SMU and Tulsa, with sweeps of the Bearcats and Huskies. Head-to-head isn’t necessarily a consideration, but with these teams all so close, the Owls' performance in conference is going to stand out.

Next game: Friday vs. East Carolina/South Florida winner, AAC quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: Advance to the AAC championship game. That would mean a win over whoever survives the Cincinnati/Connecticut matchup, and would definitely be enough to get Temple a bid. The Owls could get in with a loss there, as well, but they shouldn’t feel as safe.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

22-7, 14-4 Atlantic 10
RPI: 27, SOS: 84, kenpom.com: 77
Current Bracket Watch seed: 10

The Bonnies surged into our projected field over the last six weeks, winning 10 of their final 11 games, including victories aver Dayton and Saint Joe’s, both on the road. We don’t typically see top-30 RPI teams left out of the field, but St. Bonaventure still has some work to do before it can feel secure, and it can't do anyting about the fact that its best non-conference win was over Ohio. That’s simply not good enough when you play in the A-10, which isn’t doesn't afford teams many chances for statement victories.

Next game: Friday vs. Rhode Island/UMass winner, A-10 quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: The only way the Bonnies will feel safe is if they get to the championship game, including a win over VCU in the semifinals. The teams have remarkably similar resumes, and the winner of their potential semifinal matchup would almost certainly be ahead of the loser on the committee’s seed list. If they meet on Saturday, the winner will be in, while the loser will be nervous on Sunday.

Saint Mary’s Gaels

27-4, 15-3 West Coast
RPI: 35, SOS: 161, kenpom.com: 33
Current Bracket Watch seed: 11 (automatic qualifier from WCC)

The Gaels came out firing against Pepperdine in the WCC semifinals on Monday and never looked back, moving on to the championship game with an 81-66 win. They’re the favorite to win the conference’s automatic bid, but if they lose to Gonzaga on Tuesday, they’re going to have a tough time getting into the dance. While they’re 6-2 against the RPI top 100, they don’t have one top-50 win this season. They do, however, have two losses outside the top 100, both of which were to the Waves. In other words, Saint Mary's picked a good time to finally beat Pepperdine.

Next game: Tuesday vs. Gonzaga, WCC championship

Path to the tournament: Win the WCC tournament.

Michigan Wolverines

20-11, 10-8 Big Ten
RPI: 68, SOS: 59, kenpom.com: 54
Current Bracket Watch seed: 11 (Last Four In)

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The SI.com Bracket Watch is admittedly on a bit of an island with the Wolverines compared to other bracket projections, but the belief here is that they’re being unfairly tagged for losses because they came late in the season. This team has wins over Maryland, Purdue and Texas, all of which will be among the top-24 seeds in the tournament. Michigan doesn't have a bad loss to its name, with tthe worst one coming at Ohio State, a team that is 77th in RPI and still fighting for an at-large bid. Compare that with, say, VCU, which has two wins over at-large teams (none inside the RPI top 25) and two losses outside the top 150. Or compare it to Wichita State, which has one top-25 win and a loss to Illinois State, which is just 119th in RPI. There’s just no way to say that the Wolverines' resume going into the Big Ten tournament is not among the 36 best at-large in the country among potential at-large teams.

Next game: Thursday vs. Northwestern, Big Ten second round

Path to the tournament: Michigan obviously has to beat the Wildcats (20-11, 8-10) in their opening Big Ten tourney game to avoid landing in the NIT. A win there would set the Wolverines up with regular season champ Indiana in the quarterfinals. If they upset the Hoosiers, they’ll hear their name called on Selection Sunday. If they don’t, they’ll be awfully nervous.

Connecticut Huskies

21-10, 11-7 AAC
RPI: 57, SOS: 58, kenpom.com: 31
Current Bracket Watch seed: 11 (Last Four In)

We’ve known for about a month now that the American was going to be the nexus of bubble action during championship week. Connecticut is a key part of that, and the Huskies' quarterfinal matchup with Cincinnati could very well prove to be a play-in game for the NCAA tournament. Connecticut is slightly better positioned, with a win over Texas and zero losses outside the top 100 in RPI. Rarely are the stakes in a conference tournament game that isn’t the championship so clear, but this is one of those cases.

Next game: Friday vs. Cincinnati, AAC quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: It's simple: Beat Cincinnati, and UConn is back in the NCAAs for the first time since winning the title two years ago.

VCU Rams

22-9, 14-4 Atlantic 10
RPI: 41, SOS: 70, kenpom.com: 36
Current Bracket Watch seed: 12 (Last Four In)

Admittedly, this feels a bit low for the Rams. Their RPI is fine, their kenpom.com number is good and their strength of schedule isn’t terrible. However, when a team has just two wins against the RPI top 50, both of which were over A-10 bubble teams (St. Bonaventure and Saint Joe’s), as well as two losses outside the top 150 (to Massachusetts and George Mason), it can only get so high on the seed list, even with a gaudy record. There's a case to be made that VCU should be ahead of St. Bonaventure or Saint Joe’s, especially since the Rams went 2-0 against those teams this season, but those league rivals both have better RPIs and either as many (Saint Joe’s) or more (St. Bonaventure) top 50 wins.

Next game: Friday vs. winner of Davidson and Duquesne/LaSalle, A-10 quartefinals

Path to the tournament: A quarterfinal win does absolutely nothing for VCU, but a loss likely knocks them out of the field. The Rams need to beat St. Bonaventure in the A-10 semifinals. The only way they’ll be totally safe is by getting the conference’s automatic bid, but advancing to the conference championship would likely put them ahead of the Bonnies in the pecking order.

Cincinnati Bearcats

22-9, 12-6 AAC
RPI: 40, SOS: 76, kenpom.com: 32
Current Bracket Watch seed: 12 (Last Four In)

Everything we said about Connecticut applies to the Bearcats as well. Their resumes are remarkably similar. Cincinnati has the better RPI, while Connecticut’s strength of schedule is far superior, making those two metrics essentially a wash. Cincinnati is 1-3 against the RPI top 25, while Connecticut is 2-2. Both teams are 2-4 against the top 50. Connecticut doesn’t have any sub-100 losses, while Cincinnati has one. Again, it’s pretty obvious what’s on the line when these teams meet this week.

Next game: Friday vs. Connecticut, AAC quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: Beat Connecticut. That should get the Bearcats an invite, even if it’s one of the last four spots. A loss likely sends them to the NIT.

Monmouth Hawks

27-7, 17-3 MAAC
RPI: 47, SOS: 176, kenpom.com: 66
Current Bracket Watch status: First Four Out

The arguments for and against the Hawks, outlined above, are clear: They did great work considering the challenges facing a strong team from a small conference, and notched big victories over Notre Dame and USC. They also lost three games to teams outside the top 200 in RPI, which is typically a death knell for any team. If they had the opportunities of, say, Michigan, it’s entirely possible they would have as many good wins as the Wolverines. Unfortunately, King Rice's team didn't get those chances.

Path to the tournament: Hope that the committee values small conference domination. Monmouth also doesn’t want to see the power conference teams behind it on the seed list do anything significant in their respective tournaments. The Hawks need as much status quo as possible.

Wichita State Shockers

24-8, 16-2 Missouri Valley
RPI: 48, SOS: 105, kenpom.com: 11
Current Bracket Watch status: First Four Out

The Shockers will be, without question, the most interesting—and likely polarizing—bubble team. They may have won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season championship, but neither they, nor the conference as a whole, is as good as in recent seasons. They have one great win, beating Utah back in the middle of December, but that’s their only victory against a team worthy of an at-large bid. They’re just 4-7 against the top 100, with three of those wins coming in the Valley against teams with RPIs of 70 or worse. Yes, they have just one sub-100 loss, but that really matters when much of your at-large candidacy is built on avoiding bad losses. The committee has said it will value metrics other than RPI and strength of schedule this season, so Wichita State's kenpom.com rating could certainly help, but the bottom line is there just isn’t enough here to justify putting the Shockers in the dance.

Path to the tournament: First of all, Wichita State is cheering against all potential conference tourney Cinderellas. It also doesn’t want to see a team like Alabama, Clemson, LSU or Ohio State go on a run in their respective major-conference tournaments, racking up a few resume-building wins along the way. And, quite frankly, the Shockers are going to have to hope their name brand helps them out on Selection Sunday.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

20-10, 12-6 AAC
RPI: 51, SOS: 57, kenpom.com: 46
Current Bracket Watch status: First Four Out

In a strange twist of fate, Tulsa would have been better off had the AAC’s tiebreakers seeded it fourth or fifth in the conference tourney rather than third. The Golden Hurricane need a resume-building victory just as badly as Connecticut and Cincinnati do, but they may not get a chance for one unless they make it to the AAC championship game. At that point, a win that helps their at-large resume is moot, given that they’d secure the automatic bid with a victory that day. Instead of getting to face the Huskies or Bearcats, which would have been the case had they been the No. 4 or No. 5 in the AAC, they’ll instead take on Memphis in the quarterfinals, and then, likely, Houston in the semifinals, should they beat the Tigers. Tulsa could win both of those games without really improving its resume, which includes just two RPI top-50 wins and losses to Memphis (RPI: 148) and Oral Roberts (149).

Next game: Friday vs. Memphis, AAC quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: At the very least, the Golden Hurricane must reach the AAC championship game, and hope that a win over Houston impresses the committee, given the Cougars’ improving profile. Even in that scenario, it’s no guarantee the committee would view Tulsa more favorably than the VCU/St. Bonaventure loser, or Wichita State. The only way the Golden Hurricane will be safe on Selection Sunday is by winning the AAC tournament.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

25-7, 15-3 West Coast
RPI: 64, SOS: 127, kenpom.com: 30
Current Bracket Watch status: First Four Out

The Bulldogs put together an impressive performance in an entertaining win over BYU in the WCC semifinals on Monday. That sets up the third game of the season between the two best teams in the WCC. Saint Mary’s won those first two games, which is why the Gaels are the favorites to win the conference tournament and secure the automatic bid. Gonzaga would likely find itself out of the Big Dance for the first time since 1998. The Zags are 0-5 against the top 50, and have just three wins inside the top 100.

Next game: Tuesday vs. Saint Mary’s, WCC championship

Path to the tournament: The only hope they Bulldogs will have for an at-large is for teams like Michigan and Syracuse to lose immediately in their conference tournaments, because Gonzaga needs a few spots that are currently occupied to open up.

Ohio State Buckeyes

19-12, 11-7 Big Ten
RPI: 77, SOS: 47, kenpom.com: 63
Current Bracket Watch status: Next Four Out

Getting to 11 wins in the Big Ten used to be enough to just about guarantee a spot in the field of 68. Thanks to the unbalanced schedule, that’s no longer the case. Only Illinois played a weaker slate of league games than Ohio State, and that leaves the Buckeyes with plenty of work to do in the conference tournament this week. They do own victories over Kentucky and Iowa, so there is a path to the Big Dance for them without winning the conference championship. It requires some more work, as well as some help from their fellow bubble teams, but it is possible.

Next game: Thursday vs. Penn State, Big Ten second round

Path to the tournament: Ohio State would have to go through Michigan State and then, most likely, one of Maryland or Wisconsin to get to the Big Ten championship game. If the Buckeyes pull that off, they’d be in the at-large discussion on Selection Sunday. Even in that scenario, they’d probably need a few of their bubble brethren to suffer bad losses this week.

LSU Tigers

18-13, 11-7 SEC
RPI: 90, SOS: 69, kenpom.com: 81
Current Bracket Watch stats: Next Four Out

We’re starting to approach silly territory, though LSU remains alive for an at-large bid. The Tigers, however, will need a ton of help. That’s what happens when you have six losses against sub-100 RPI teams. LSU has three eye-opening wins against Kentucky, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, so we can’t write the Tigers off just yet. Basically, they’re in the same boat as Ohio State and Alabama. There’s some good, but a bit more bad, on their resume. They need to do work this week and get some help along the way to get an at-large bid.

Next game: Friday vs. winner of Vanderbilt and Tennessee/Auburn

Path to an at-large bid: It’s basically the SEC version of Ohio State’s path. LSU will likely need to beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M to get to the SEC championship game. That’s the bare minimum they can do to be considered for an at-large spot.

Alabama Crimson Tide

17-13, 8-10 SEC
RPI: 76, SOS: 40, kenpom.com: 90
Current Bracket Watch status: Next Four Out

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If Selection Sunday were last weekend, the Crimson Tide probably would have been relatively easy to keep out, even though we view them as one of the last eight teams to be cut. Luckily for them, there’s still an SEC tournament to be played, and they did enough during the regular season to put themselves in position to get into the field with a strong run over the next week. Losing four of its last five regular season games was a bad look, but Alabama owns victories over Texas A&M, Notre Dame and South Carolina, three teams that have already put on their dancing shoes. The Tide also beat Wichita State and won at Florida and LSU, three teams firmly on the bubble. They have three sub-100 losses, so their resume, as currently constructed, isn’t good enough. They have the opportunity to overwhelm those losses with a few more strong wins beginning on Thursday.

Next game: Thursday vs. Mississippi, SEC second round

Path to the tournament: Beating Mississippi won’t do anything for Alabama’s at-large worthiness. Beating Kentucky in the quarterfinals, however, would. If the Tide did that and then took down South Carolina in the semifinals, they’d have five wins against teams locked into at-large spots, with two of those coming against RPI top 25 opponents. That’s the minimum they need to get an invite.

Clemson Tigers

17-13, 10-8 ACC
RPI: 117, SOS: 95, kenpom.com: 51
Current Bracket Watch status: Next Four Out

And now we present the ACC’s version of Ohio State and LSU. Clemson kicked off its conference season with a bang, winning five of its first six games, highlighted by consecutive wins over Syracuse, Louisville, Duke and Miami. At that point, the Tigers guaranteed they’d be part of the at-large discussion all season. Unfortunately, they went just 5-7 the rest of the way, with only one win over an at-large team (Pittsburgh), and losses to Georgia Tech, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech. Clemson is 3-3 against the RPI top 25 but also has three sub 100 losses, two of which were outside the top 150 (Massachusetts, Minnesota). Still, no other team in this range can come close to matching that trio of top-25 wins.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Georgia Tech, ACC second round

Path to an at-large bid: Beat Georgia Tech on Wednesday, Virginia on Thursday and Miami on Friday. In our estimation, that would be enough. The committee can’t leave out a team with five top-25 wins.

Valparaiso Crusaders

26-5, 16-2 Horizon League
RPI: 39, SOS: 170, kenpom.com: 38
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

Valparaiso isn’t quite in the class of Monmouth or Wichita State. Unlike the Hawks, the Crusaders didn’t post multiple strong victories, with their best win—the only one against a team with at-large chops—coming at Oregon State. And unlike the Shockers, Valpo didn’t take care of the opponents it was supposed to, losing four times to teams with RPIs of 140 or worse. The Crusaders were undoubtedly the best team in the Horizon League, but their overtime loss to UW-Green Bay in the conference tournament semifinals has them ticketed for the NIT.

Path to the tournament: Hope that the Bracket Watch has seriously misjudged the committee’s feelings about the Horizon League.

George Washington Colonials

22-9, 11-7 Atlantic 10
RPI: 63, SOS: 102, kenpom.com: 73
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

We’ve really reached the fringes of the potential at-large group, starting with the Colonials. They have one great win, over Virginia, and a good one, over Seton Hall. They also won at VCU, but the Rams are hanging onto their at-large spot by a thread. GW has just one more top-100 win, whileit will also need to explain away terrible losses to DePaul and Saint Louis. Unfortunately for the Colonials, the A-10 tournament may not even give them that chance.

Next game: Thursday vs. George Mason/Saint Louis winner, A-10 second round

Path to the tournament: If there is one, it will require significant help from the teams listed above them in the Bubble Watch. George Washington will also have to pick up wins over Saint Joe’s and Dayton to advance to the conference final.

Florida Gators

18-13, 9-9 SEC
RPI: 54, SOS: 18, kenpom: 44
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

The Gators have better metrics than many of the teams we have better positioned to get an at-large bid, so why are they so low? Well, they went just 2-9 against the RPI top 50. Basically, all the Gators have proved this season is that they can lose consistently to tournament-quality competition. Sure, that same fate could have befallen a team like Tulsa or Gonzaga if it played Florida’s schedule, but the Gators have already showed the committee that they cannot hang with top-50 teams.

Next game: Thursday vs. Arkansas, SEC second round

Path to an the tournament: Beat Arkansas on Thursday and Texas A&M on Friday. Then, hope Vanderbilt beats LSU, which would set up a meeting with the Commodores, which would be better for Florida's resume, in the semifinals. Win that game, too, and then get help in the form of early losses by other bubble teams.

Houston Cougars

22-8, 12-6 AAC
RPI: 75, SOS: 124, kenpom.com: 50
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

It’s a minor miracle that Kelvin Sampson has the Cougars in the at-large discussion at all right now. They beat all five of the other potential at-large teams in the AAC, including knocking off Connecticut and Cincinnati last week. Unfortunately, the metrics are really going to work against them, as is a loss to South Florida that is as ugly as it gets for a team fighting for an at-large bid. Like Tulsa, they suffer by being on the opposite side of the AAC bracket from Temple, Connecticut and Cincinnati.

Next game: Friday vs. UCF/Tulane, AAC quarterfinals

Path to the tournament: It probably doesn’t exist, unless we’ve badly missed on how the committee values the Cougars. If they beat the UCF/Tulane winner, they’ll play the Tulsa/Memphis winner in the AAC semifinals on Saturday. There’s no combination of wins there that vaults them into the field of 68. It’s AQ or bust for Houston.

Florida State Seminoles

18-12, 8-10 ACC
RPI: 69, SOS: 51, kenpom.com: 48
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

The Seminoles have decent metrics, as well as wins over Virginia and Notre Dame, but the committee has never showed much appetite for extending an at-large bid to a team that finished multiple games below .500 in its conference (though one such team that secured a bid was Florida State, which made the field in 1998 despite having gone 6-10 in the ACC). That doesn’t automatically disqualify a team, but it makes it extremely unlikely the 'Noles will be in the NCAAs.

Next game: Tuesday vs. Boston College, ACC first round

Path to the tournament: The Seminoles have to win two games against league also-rans before they even get to a point where they can build their resume. If they win those games against Boston College and Virginia Tech, they’ll draw Miami in the ACC quarterfinals. They’d need to win that game and beat Virginia the following day, and even in that incredibly unlikely scenario, they’d still need some help from around the country.

Washington Huskies

17-13, 9-9 Pac-12
RPI: 82, SOS: 34, kenpom.com: 69
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

Halfway through the Pac-12 schedule, it appeared Washington would be comfortably inside the field of 68. At the time, the Huskies were 7-3, having already racked up wins over Colorado, USC and Texas, not to mention a pair of victories over UCLA that looked a whole lot better at the time. They went just 2-6 the rest of the way, and while all of those losses were to teams inside our field of 68, no team can lose its way into the dance.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Stanford, Pac-12 first round

Path to the tournament: Wins over Stanford on Wednesday, Oregon on Thursday and Arizona on Friday could do the trick. The question in that scenario is whether Washington would still need to worry about what its fellow bubble teams do.

Georgia Bulldogs

17-12, 10-8 SEC
RPI: 72, SOS: 29, kenpom.com: 68
Current Bracket Watch status: Out

We know one thing about the Bulldogs: They can beat South Carolina. They swept the Gamecocks for their only two RPI top-50 wins this season, but they have just one more win against a team that we view as at-large viable (Alabama). Georgia suffered just one bad loss in the regular season, however, and is on the better side of the SEC bracket for a team desperate to get multiple resume-building victories.

Next game: Thursday vs. Mississippi State, SEC second round

Path to the tournament: Beat Mississippi State, South Carolina (again) and Kentucky to get to the SEC championship game, with help from above, literally and perhaps figuratively.

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