2016-17 Preseason Bowl Projections: Who will make the playoff, every bowl game?

Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Florida State make the predicted College Football Playoff field in SI's preseason bowl projections.

We’re 109 days away from the start of bowl season, when the New Mexico Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Camellia Bowl, Cure Bowl and New Orleans Bowl will kick off the 2016 postseason. In those 109 days, the 128 teams of the FBS will complete their regular seasons that—for everyone except Cal and Hawaii—commence this weekend.

So it’s safe to say there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty in how the bowl picture will shape up this season. Of course, some things are clearer: Only a dozen or so teams have a realistic shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. BYU will play in the Poinsettia Bowl as long as the Cougars are bowl-eligible (they should be) and don’t make the playoff (they won’t). The same goes for Navy and the Armed Forces Bowl.

But for the most part, the 40 bowl games plus the national championship that make up the 2016 season’s finale are largely a mystery. So consider this a best guess, one that we’ll continue to refine throughout the season.

But first, here’s a reminder about how all this works. The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals and four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the different conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

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And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions. Some conferences group their bids together rather than follow a strict hierarchy to give them greater flexibility to create compelling matchups. This allows the SEC, for example, to choose between its third through eighth teams to send to the Texas, Belk, Liberty, Music City, TaxSlayer and Outback bowls depending on which bowls its teams have been to most recently, what matchups it wants to create and other considerations.

Bowl	Date	Location	Matchup	Pick
Peach (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Atlanta	TBD vs. TBD	Alabama vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta (semifinal)	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	TBD vs. TBD	Ohio State vs. Florida State
Orange	Dec. 30	Miami	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Clemson vs. Tennessee
Cotton	Jan. 2	Arlington, Texas	TBD vs. TBD	Boise State vs. TCU
Rose	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Michigan vs. Stanford
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	LSU vs. Oklahoma

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bowl	date	location	matchup	pick
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Albuquerque, N.M,	C-USA vs. MW	Florida Atlantic vs. Colorado State
Las Vegas	Dec. 17	Las Vegas	MW vs. Pac-12	San Diego State vs. Washington State
Camellia	Dec. 17	Montgomery, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
Cure	Dec. 17	Orlando, Fla.	AAC vs. Sun Belt	East Carolina vs. Troy
New Orleans	Dec. 17	New Orleans	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Appalachian State vs. Marshall
Miami Beach	Dec. 19	Miami	AAC vs. MAC	Houston vs. Northern Illinois
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	Boca Raton, Fla.	AAC vs. C-USA	UConn vs. Southern Miss
Poinsettia	Dec. 21	San Diego	BYU vs. MW	BYU vs. Air Force
Famous Idaho Potato	Dec. 22	Boise, Idaho	MAC vs. MW	Toledo vs. Nevada
Bahamas	Dec. 23	Nassau, Bahamas	AAC vs. MAC	Memphis vs. Ohio
Armed Forces	Dec. 23	Fort Worth, Texas	Big 12 vs. Navy	West Virginia vs. Navy
Dollar General	Dec. 23	Mobile, Ala.	MAC vs. Sun Belt	Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Hawaii	Dec. 24	Honolulu	C-USA vs. MW	Louisiana Tech vs. Utah State
St. Petersburg	Dec. 26	St. Petersburg, Fla.	ACC vs. AAC	Central Michigan* vs. South Florida
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten	Georgia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Independence	Dec. 26	Shreveport, La.	ACC vs. SEC	Duke vs. Western Kentucky*
Heart of Dallas	Dec. 27	Dallas	Big Ten vs. C-USA	Indiana vs. Middle Tennessee
Military	Dec. 27	Annapolis, Md.	ACC vs. AAC	Temple vs. NC State
Holiday	Dec. 27	San Diego	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Michigan State vs. Oregon
Cactus	Dec. 27	Phoenix	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Kansas State vs. Utah
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	New York	ACC vs. Big Ten	Miami vs. Penn State
Russell Athletic	Dec. 28	Orlando, Fla.	ACC vs. Big 12	Louisville vs. Texas
Foster Farms	Dec. 28	Santa Clara, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Northwestern vs. USC
Texas	Dec. 28	Houston	Big 12 vs. SEC	Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Birmingham	Dec. 29	Birmingham, Ala.	AAC vs. SEC	Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Belk	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	Pittsburgh vs. Arkansas
Alamo	Dec. 29	San Antonio	Big 12 vs. Pac-12	Oklahoma State vs. Washington
Arizona	Dec. 30	Tucson, Ariz.	MW vs. Sun Belt	Fresno State vs. Arizona*
Liberty	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Texas Tech vs. Auburn
Sun	Dec. 30	El Paso, Texas	ACC vs. Pac-12	Virginia Tech vs. UCLA
Music City	Dec. 30	Nashville, Ten..	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Minnesota vs. Florida
TaxSlayer	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. Texas A&M
Citrus	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC	Iowa vs. Georgia
Outback	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Nebraska vs. Ole Miss

*Replacement team